Category: Economics

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Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

May 2025 snapshot: Shares rebound + the latest on inflation, rate cuts, and the TACO trade

Share markets surge back in May after three negative months under Trump. My base case scenario - 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out) is on track. (I didn't come up with that name - I wish I had!) Moody's strips the US government of its Aaa credit rating and shares surged, just like they did after the S&P downgrade in 2011. Labor wins 'landslide' election in Australia (how 34% of the primary vote is a landslide is a mystery to me) - so it's all systems go for even more government spending and 'tax-the-rich!'

Ashley Owen Jun 01, 2025 2

Commodities & MiningEconomicsAustralian economyChinaExports, trade

RBA Dep Gov opens keynote speech on trade war impacts on Australia with another of my charts!

On 22 May, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gave a keynote address outlining his observations from his trip to China in the middle of April, days after Trump launched his 'Liberation Day' tariff war on the world, aimed primarily at China. As China is by far our largest export buyer, it is our largest source of export and tax revenues, and has been the largest single source of wealth and prosperity for Australians so far this century, he was keen to assess first-hand the likely flow-on effects of the trade war on the Australian economy, and the RBA's monetary policy thinking. The Dep Gov needed a killer chart to open his address, and I am once again incredibly honoured that he contacted me for permission to use another of my charts!

Ashley Owen May 24, 2025 2

Government – deficits, debtInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio construction

My latest webinar for IFPA- Elections, inflation, rate cuts, shares, Trump: is there a grand plan?

Here's my latest webinar for the IFPA's Investment Insight series from 9 May 2025. It's a rollicking romp through some critical issues facing long-term investors in these exciting times. Topics include - elections - productivity - inflation - rate cuts - share market action & valuation levels - and the dreaded 'T' word! Is there a grand plan behind Trump's frenzy of policies?

Ashley Owen May 14, 2025

Investment & Wealth MgmtInflationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares

Slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Association seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney

Here are the slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Accociation seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney. Highlights: 4 things about the future we can predict with certainty. 4 things about the future we can be reasonably certain about. Plus we cover - human nature - investor behaviour - bubbles & busts - inflation - longevity - what's behind Trump's agenda, and will it work?

May 07, 2025 4

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsCurrencyExports, tradeInterest ratesInflationInternational shares

April 2025 snapshot- Share markets ended around flat in April - did I miss anything?

Big moves in share and bond markets with Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs, then their sudden deferral a week later. More rebounds, or more falls ahead? Big moves also in currency markets - Trump talking down the dollar is working. Will Trump's tariffs bring inflation or recession, or both? Why tariff-induced price rises are not necessarily 'inflation'. US GDP contraction + updates on commodities, gold, bitcoin, inflation, interest rates, credit.

Ashley Owen May 01, 2025 4

Financial MarketsCurrencyStock market crashes

Is the US dollar in decline? or on its ‘last legs’? Hardly! The problem is the dollar is too strong

The US dollar is hardly in decline or on its last legs. The main problem is that it's too strong - demand exceeds supply. The biggest enemy of US producers and exporters is not China. The chief culprits are Japan, Europe, and UK, as they have trashed their currencies to help their exporters, far more than China has. Trump needs to bring down the dollar, but can he do it without crashing stock markets and sending bond yields higher? What are the implications for Aussie investors?

Ashley Owen Apr 21, 2025 6

Australian shares Australian economyFinancial Markets

Labor -v- Libs: which side has been better for the Aussie share market?

Looking at share market returns under every PM and government since Federation - right-leaning governments win, with significantly higher average returns than left-leaning governments. Left-leaning PMs presided over the worst return periods for the share market, and also the best return periods. However, most of the big differences are due to lucky (or unlucky) timing, and/or delayed causation from prior governments. Our governments on both sides deserve credit for creating favourable conditions for investment.

Ashley Owen Apr 14, 2025

EconomicsAustralian economyRecessionsInterest ratesInflation

Company insolvencies highest in 35 years - and we’re not even in ‘recession’ yet!

Company insolvencies in Australia have soared back to levels not seen since the deep 1990-1 recession. Business is doing it tough - on recession footing already. But the rapidly expanding government sector is doing fine - accounting for almost all of the growth in jobs and economic 'activity' (and artificially suppressing inflation and unemployment numbers), while businesses suffer.

Ashley Owen Apr 09, 2025

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInterest ratesInflationAsset classes, asset class returns

March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?

Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors - Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

Ashley Owen Apr 01, 2025

EconomicsAustralian economyDebtGovernment – deficits, debt

Labor -v- Libs: which side has a better record on Deficits & Debts? Here are the facts

'Left' governments have run deficits more often than 'Right' governments, and the Left have also run larger deficits on average than the Right. But timing is everything! - the Left happened to be in power during the big deficits and debts in the two World Wars, when spending was bi-partisan. My verdict? - Equal points to Left and Right - but poor scores for both post-GFC. Both sides could have used windfall revenue gains to put our house in order to better prepare for global challenges, rather than increase spending and debt.

Ashley Owen Mar 26, 2025 1

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRecessionsAustralian shares Stock market crashes

‘Buying the dip?’ – ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’? – the Aussie share market experience

Following my story on US market dips, here is the same analysis for the ASX: The Aussie market has had 36 dips of -10% or more since 1920. Buying the dips still resulted in more 'Knives' than 'Bargains', and below average returns overall, but the outcomes were significantly better than buying the dips in the US market. 83% of dips on our market were led by falls on the US market. Of the few dips that were due to local factors alone, most were 'Bargains'. Where are we now? Will I be buying the dip here as the US boom deflates?

Ashley Owen Mar 23, 2025 1

RecessionsInternational sharesStock market crashesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

After the mini-correction, should I ‘Buy the dip?’ - Am I ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’?

The US stock market has had 31 'dips' of -10% or more since 1900. We look at what happened in each case if you 'bought the dip'. In most cases, a 10% dip turned out to be just the start of a much larger fall (further -15% fall on average), and for a much longer period (more than a year of further falls on average). Overall, buying the dip resulted in poor returns over subsequent 1, 3, and 5-year periods, but there were several times when 'buying the dip' led to high returns. Where are we now? How does today's market compare?

Ashley Owen Mar 18, 2025 2

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningInflationInternational shares

Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained

The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story. Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING. This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns. The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over. What this means for retirement planning.

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2025

Financial MarketsRetirement planningInflationAustralian shares

Inflation Cycles & the Australian share market - the Big picture

Share market returns vary greatly in different inflation conditions. Returns are consistently lower (and below average) when inflation is rising, and consistently higher (and above average) when inflation is falling. This applies to nominal returns and even more so to 'real' returns after inflation. If the recent era of declining inflation is over, what comes next?

Ashley Owen Feb 10, 2025 2

EconomicsFinancial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

January 2025 snapshot: Trump’s pro-growth agenda boosts shares + ChatGPT’s effort- which is better?

Here's my monthly wrap-up of financial markets for Australian global investors. What moved markets and why? plus I get ChatGPT to write the same report - let me know which is better! OpenAI founder Sam Altman says ai will replace humans in 868 days time - am I worried?

Ashley Owen Feb 02, 2025 6

Financial MarketsRecessionsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtStock market crashes

Bring on the Trump ‘volatility’! - My Volatility Spike Index separates the calm from the storm

Trump's first term was certainly entertaining, but was it volatile for financial markets? Let's look at facts, not mindless media chatter warning of 'more Trump volatility!', or 'another bumby ride!'. My Volatility Spike Index highlights and compares all volatility spikes since 1970.

Ashley Owen Jan 21, 2025

Financial MarketsRecessionsAsset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInternational sharesAustralian shares

125 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?

It's that time of year again - time to review a whole new year of possible threats, risks, and crises that might blow up share markets. What are the big risks that might spook investors in 2025? How share markets power through even the greatest crises the world has ever faced.

Ashley Owen Jan 14, 2025 2

CurrencyInflationAustralian economy

What drives the Aussie Dollar? -Part 3: the long-term inflation effect. Where is it heading?

Exchange rates are driven ultimately by differences in inflation. Inflation transcends and defeats all attempts to peg, fix, or manage currencies. Why the Aussie dollar has been in long-term decline against the US dollar for more than a century. Why I am bullish that this long-term decline is probably behind us.

Ashley Owen Jan 10, 2025 4

EconomicsInflationInterest ratesMoney

Cash rates are already too low to contain inflation - why central bankers are in a pickle

The tremendous 2-year rally in share markets (even after this week's mini-fall) has been based on the assumption of several more rate cuts soon. Even if inflation is back to target (it isn't yet), current cash rates are already too low to contain inflation in Australia, the US, and other markets, Be careful what you wish for - the only reason for rapid rate cuts would be a sharp recession - and nobody wants that!

Ashley Owen Dec 20, 2024

Financial MarketsDebtGovernment – deficits, debtBonds

Who wants to buy US debt? (lend to Uncle Sam?) Most of the world but me! Who’s buying, selling, why?

Just about everyone is rushing in to lend more money to the profligate US government – except China, Russia, Iran (and me). China has dumped $413b of US debt (one third of its peak holdings) since Trump started his trade war in 2018, and accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the UK soaked up all of that and more, increasing its holdings by $515b.

Ashley Owen Dec 13, 2024 5

Commodities & MiningExports, tradeChina

China’s 4-year trade war with Australia is over. It was the wake-up call we needed!

It was a much-needed wake-up call for Aussie exporters to diversify into other markets and reduce their heavy reliance on China. China's share of exports fell from 42% to 32%, taken up by increasing exports to the rest of Asia, and USA. Australia's exports continued to

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2024

EconomicsSocial & EnvironmentalAustralian economyPopulation, demographics, immigration

Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0 – Part 1: Shape & distribution of Economic Growth

In the 8 years since the start of Trump’s first term, the global economy has changed fundamentally. Part 1 looks at big changes in the shape and distribution of economic growth: There are 600 million more people in the world. That's more than the entire 19th century! Populations are aging everywhere. The global economic pie is US$10 trillion larger.

Ashley Owen Nov 24, 2024

Real Estate and PropertyInflationInternational shares

House prices -v- other Real Assets part 2: Microsoft & US shares

House prices have soared – but that’s mostly just inflation due to continued debasement of paper money. Compared to other 'Real Assets', house prices have fallen in value over time. Case in point: US shares.

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2024

Commodities & MiningReal Estate and PropertyInflationMoney

The house price myth: Sydney house prices -v- other Real assets part 1: Gold

House prices have soared to astronomical levels in recent years, but have they really? No. Only if you measure them in terms of the increasingly worthless paper money that governments are deliberately debasing. Comopared to other Real Assets, house prices have actually fallen in value! For example: gold. &

Nov 13, 2024 4

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAsset classes, asset class returns

October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls

Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets? Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year? Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?

Ashley Owen Nov 04, 2024

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsChinaInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?

Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets

Ashley Owen Oct 01, 2024 4

InflationCommoditiesInterest rates

Gold price pointing to US inflation rising next year - the Fed may not be done yet!

Gold has been the best performing asset class this year, but what is it saying about the outlook for US inflation? It is pointing to rising US inflation in the year ahead, so the Fed may not be done yet with rate hikes. This would be bearish for US and global share and bond markets. How does this sit with fears of recession in the US? Why I'm still bullish on US shares and gold - for now.

Ashley Owen Sep 23, 2024

InflationInterest ratesInternational sharesRecessions

Let the US rate cuts begin! Usually good for shares, but it will NOT be plain sailing!

In rate cut cycles, shares have usually posted higher returns, but also higher volatility The big issue is inflation - has it been solved or will it revive like in past cycles? With monetary policy now being eased, can we rely on Trump or Harris for fiscal restraint to contain inflation?

Ashley Owen Sep 18, 2024

EconomicsFinancial MarketsAustralian economyInflationInterest rates

5 Reasons the RBA is not cutting rates like the rest of the world - Why I'd rather NOT see rate cuts

Several other countries are into their second rate cut already - why hasn't the RBA cut rates yet? Here are 5 fact-based reasons When will we get rate cuts here? Why I am NOT looking foward to rate cuts!

Ashley Owen Sep 14, 2024

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesExports, tradeAustralian shares China

Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?

The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle? Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term. How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.

Ashley Owen Sep 05, 2024 1

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

Economics

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