Wednesday, September 11, 2024

  • Economics

Economics

1-30 out of 48 results.
Commodities & MiningCommoditiesExports, tradeAustralian shares
Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?

The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle?  Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term.   How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.  

Ashley Owen Sep 05, 2024 1
Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares
August 2024 snapshot: Shares hold up - still waiting for US rate cut(s)

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets and why? Who were the winners and losers in global and local share markets? Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyCurrencyAustralian economy
Australia’s big banks: Origin of the Species, or ‘Survival of the Fattest!’

Ever wondered where our big dinosaur banks came from, and how they got so big? And why they are all virtually the same? How Australia became the richest country in the world per capita - without a central bank, without a national currency, and without bank regulation?   How the dozens of small, independent, competitive banks became the big-4 government protected oligopoly we have today?

Ashley Owen Aug 15, 2024 2
Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyAustralian economyFinancial Markets
Labor’s attempt to nationalise all banks in Australia!

Australians have always had a love-hate relationship with their banks. (OK, so it’s mostly hate). But it was not always the case. Believe it or not, there was a time when the Australian public loved their banks so much they kicked out a Federal government that was trying to close the banks down! Here is the remarkable story of Banks -v- Politics, Capitalism -v- Socialism right here in Australia.

Ashley Owen Jul 21, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyFinancial Markets
Which Bank? . . is winning the Battle of the Banks?

Quick 2-question Quiz on Aussie Banks -  Q1 - Which of the big Aussie banks has had the largest % share price gain this year?  - No it's not CBA, despite all the media attention and hype.    Q2 - Which of the big banks has been the best for shareholders over the past one, two, and three decades?    - No its not CBA either, despite the widely held belief that it is!

Ashley Owen Jul 17, 2024
Government – deficits, debtEconomicsFinancial Markets
Trump -v- Biden: Economic Report Card on their first terms – how did they rate?

Putting aside personalities, politics, and hair products, what are the facts? What were the actual economic outcomes in each of their first terms? How do they rate on seven key outcomes for investors?

Ashley Owen Jul 11, 2024
Wars & military conflictsExports, tradeChinaAustralian economyCommodities
Geopolitics case study - China: largest export customer + potential military threat - a problem?

Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate.  Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!

Ashley Owen Jul 03, 2024
Exports, tradeAustralian economyAgricultureCommodities & Mining
RBA Deputy Governor opens speech with my chart!

A bit chuffed this week. RBA Dep Gov opened his keynote speech at a major economic forum - with one of my charts. What does he see as Australia's three main sources of wealth and prosperity (and why they matter in future)? How does he see monetary policy being managed in future? What are his observations on Australia - as a 'Stranger in Paradise'?

Ashley Owen Jun 28, 2024 2
Australian shares International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation
May 2024 Snapshot: Inflation, trade wars, but shares stronger. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

May 2024 Snapshot: inflation sticky, trade wars escalate, but shares heading for another good year. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

Ashley Owen Jun 02, 2024
MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt
‘What’s your Number? Part 2: 17 key factors driving ‘How much do I need’ & ‘How much can I spend?'

Here are 17 key drivers that determine 'How much do I need to retire', and 'How much can I afford to spend?' How do they work, and how do they apply to you? This handy guide will help you come up with your own Number that suits your needs and goals.

Ashley Owen May 14, 2024
MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt
What's your Number? Part 1: 'How much do I need to retire?', 'How much can I afford to spend?'

Here we tackle these difficult questions, and similar questions like: 'When can I afford to retire?' 'Will my money last as long as I do?   Here are the two key Numbers to tackle these questions.  Plus two quick tests to help measure progress toward your goal.

Ashley Owen May 10, 2024
BondsGovernment – deficits, debtAustralian economyEconomicsChina
The Debt Olympics - How do we rate?

Australia and Australians loaded up on debt in the GFC and again in Covid, but how do we stack up against other countries? How do we rate on: Government debt? Corporate debt? Household debt?   Is debt good or bad? When does it become a problem? The answers are probably very different to what you may have thought.

Ashley Owen May 07, 2024
International sharesBondsAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsInterest ratesInflation
April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?

Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast.  'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?

Ashley Owen May 02, 2024
Managed fundsInternational sharesExchange Traded FundsBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation
The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!

Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well!   But that era of great returns from low inflation is over.  What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?

Ashley Owen Apr 16, 2024
International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy
March 2024 Snapshot - Shares keep rising despite strong economy + sticky inflation

March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.

Ashley Owen Apr 01, 2024
Exports, tradeChinaCommoditiesCommodities & Mining
Chinese Steel Production - the Sydney Harbour Bridge Index

China builds another 'Sydney Harbour Bridge' worth of steel every 10 minutes!    That's 26,000 Harbour Bridges per year - with our rocks.       China's steel production has been single biggest driver of Australia's prosperity this century.      But with China's construction market collapsing and economy stagnating, how will that affect us?  ·       

Ashley Owen Mar 25, 2024
RecessionsAustralian economyInterest rates
Company insolvencies up 100%! - 3 reasons not to panic

Yes, company failures are up 100% - but here are three reasons not to panic Insolvency rates tell us about the Business Cycle - Where are we now? Where to next? Which industries are under most pressure? Why the next recession will see fewer company failures than past recessions Why I'm bullish on Aussie companies as a whole, recession or not

Ashley Owen Mar 21, 2024
MoneyInflationCommodities
Gold: Curious case of the '31-year itch'?

Gold is hitting new highs lately, so everyone is looking to jump in. It's time to step back for a moment and look at the big picture: Gold goes through regular 31-year cycles - so where are we now in the cycle?  Why gold is a lousy inflation hedge most of the time. Is it cheap or expensive? When it is 'good value'?

Ashley Owen Mar 15, 2024 2
Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationAustralian economy
Australia's shrinking growth - mostly just population growth

Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on population rather than real reforms to improve productivity and living standards. It has been deteriorating for several decades through governments of all types. Here is the Big Picture you will not find anywhere else.

Ashley Owen Mar 07, 2024
International sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy
Feb 2024 Snapshot - early rate cut hopes dashed but shares surge on confidence from US profits

He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.

Ashley Owen Mar 03, 2024
Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationInflationSocial & EnvironmentalReal Estate and Property
Residential Landlords v Tenants: Australia is 'Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell'

Australia has the fastest rising residential property prices and rents in the world, making it Residential ‘Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell’. The tide will turn one day, but when?

Ashley Owen Feb 28, 2024
InflationAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt
Dr Don Stammer's 60 years of investing

In Dr Don Stammer's speech this week, capping off his 60 year career, he only used 2 charts. Both were mine!      

Ashley Owen Feb 22, 2024
RecessionsInflationAustralian economySocial & EnvironmentalEconomics
Australia's 'Misery Index': Inflation + Unemployment

  Australia's Misery Index: Unemployment + Inflation. Where are we now?

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares Australian economy
Case Study: JB-Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star, or the next Myer?

JB Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star or the next Myer?

Ashley Owen Feb 14, 2024 2
CryptoInternational sharesAustralian shares Interest ratesInflationAustralian economy
January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls.  Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.

Ashley Owen Feb 05, 2024 2
Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationAustralian shares Exports, tradeAustralian economy
Australia's remarkable population-led growth

Australia’s population just hit 27 million, 18 years sooner than planned.  Australia has the highest population growth rate outside of Africa, but it is still the sparsest country on earth. 

Ashley Owen Jan 31, 2024 2
Australian shares Australian economyExports, tradeWealth, InequalityCommodities & Mining
Reflections on Australia - lucky country for investors!

In Australia we tend to take a lot for granted. Australia is the richest country in the world per capita (a record we have held since 1890) - but why? It's not just resource riches and/or British colonisation - there are plenty of resource-rich countries, and plenty of ex-British colonies that are economic basket cases today.  How I personally got lucky - twice - in the great lottery of life.

Ashley Owen Jan 27, 2024 2
Stock market crashesWars & military conflictsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsRecessionsRetirement planning
124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?

Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?

Ashley Owen Jan 17, 2024
CurrencyCommodities
What drives the Aussie dollar Part 2: Commodities prices

This is the second in a series of articles looking at the four main drivers of the Aussie dollar

Ashley Owen Dec 13, 2023
Australian economyInterest ratesInflationCurrency
What drives the Aussie dollar? – Part 1: Interest Rate Differentials

Every day (in fact every minute of every day and night) the value of the Aussie dollar jumps around, seemingly at random.

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2023

 

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

 

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more