Saturday, July 26, 2025

linkedIn

Economics

1-30 out of 80 results.

Chinese steel production – the ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge’ Index’ – how is it holding up?

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesChinaExports, trade

China builds another Sydney Harbour Bridge worth of steel every 10 minutes! (with iron ore and coal mainly imported from Australia). China’s steel production has been the largest single factor that has driven Australia’s economic growth, prosperity, living standards, tax revenues, share market returns, and even house pieces, so far this century. But with China’s property / construction market collapsed, its economic growth virtually stagnant, and population now declining, has this slowed China’s steel production? - and Australia’s economic growth engine? My ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge Index’ is a simple way of keeping track of this key activity. It measures the number of ‘Sydney Harbour Bridges’ worth of steel China producers per hour. Where are we now? The growth era is behind us, but steel production is holding up remarkably well

Jul 24, 2025 2

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

Investment & Wealth MgmtFinancial MarketsInterest ratesInflationAustralian shares International sharesCommodities

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.

Jul 01, 2025 2

US Government has previously defaulted on Treasuries. They are not entirely risk-free!

Government – deficits, debtInflationInterest ratesBonds

As the US government teeters toward yet another debt crisis, it is useful to remember that US government defaulting on Treasures is not new. The US failed to pay maturing treasury bills three times in 1979 when Congress didn't legislate to raise the debt ceiling in time. The creditors sued for unpaid interest but were denied by the Courts. These were 'temporary' defaults and were rectified quickly (the principal, not the interest), but they shocked people who had believed the US government would always pay its debts. The default crisis was a final nail in the coffin for Jimmy Carter and Keynesianism, paving the way for the 1980s boom under Reagan with the revival of free market capitalism. Are we at another turning point now? Today, the US deficit and debt load are more than THREE TIMES WORSE (relative to GDP) than in 1979.&

Jun 12, 2025 2

May 2025 snapshot: Shares rebound + the latest on inflation, rate cuts, and the TACO trade

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

Share markets surge back in May after three negative months under Trump.  My base case scenario - 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out) is on track. (I didn't come up with that name - I wish I had!) Moody's strips the US government of its Aaa credit rating and shares surged, just like they did after the S&P downgrade in 2011. Labor wins 'landslide' election in Australia (how 34% of the primary vote is a landslide is a mystery to me) - so it's all systems go for even more government spending and 'tax-the-rich!'

Jun 01, 2025 2

RBA Dep Gov opens keynote speech on trade war impacts on Australia with another of my charts!

Commodities & MiningEconomicsAustralian economyChinaExports, trade

On 22 May, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gave a keynote address outlining his observations from his trip to China in the middle of April, days after Trump launched his 'Liberation Day' tariff war on the world, aimed primarily at China.  As China is by far our largest export buyer, it is our largest source of export and tax revenues, and has been the largest single source of wealth and prosperity for Australians so far this century, he was keen to assess first-hand the likely flow-on effects of the trade war on the Australian economy, and the RBA's monetary policy thinking. The Dep Gov needed a killer chart to open his address, and I am once again incredibly honoured that he contacted me for permission to use another of my charts!

May 24, 2025 2

My latest webinar for IFPA- Elections, inflation, rate cuts, shares, Trump: is there a grand plan?

Government – deficits, debtInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio construction

Here's my latest webinar for the IFPA's Investment Insight series from 9 May 2025. It's a rollicking romp through some critical issues facing long-term investors in these exciting times.  Topics include - elections - productivity - inflation - rate cuts - share market action & valuation levels - and the dreaded 'T' word! Is there a grand plan behind Trump's frenzy of policies?

May 14, 2025

Slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Association seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney

Investment & Wealth MgmtInflationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares

Here are the slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Accociation seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney. Highlights: 4 things about the future we can predict with certainty. 4 things about the future we can be reasonably certain about. Plus we cover - human nature - investor behaviour - bubbles & busts - inflation - longevity - what's behind Trump's agenda, and will it work?

May 07, 2025 4

April 2025 snapshot- Share markets ended around flat in April - did I miss anything?

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsCurrencyExports, tradeInterest ratesInflationInternational shares

  Big moves in share and bond markets with Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs, then their sudden deferral a week later. More rebounds, or more falls ahead? Big moves also in currency markets - Trump talking down the dollar is working. Will Trump's tariffs bring inflation or recession, or both? Why tariff-induced price rises are not necessarily 'inflation'. US GDP contraction + updates on commodities, gold, bitcoin, inflation, interest rates, credit.

May 01, 2025 4

Is the US dollar in decline? or on its ‘last legs’? Hardly! The problem is the dollar is too strong

Financial MarketsCurrencyStock market crashes

The US dollar is hardly in decline or on its last legs. The main problem is that it's too strong - demand exceeds supply.  The biggest enemy of US producers and exporters is not China. The chief culprits are Japan, Europe, and UK, as they have trashed their currencies to help their exporters, far more than China has. Trump needs to bring down the dollar, but can he do it without crashing stock markets and sending bond yields higher?  What are the implications for Aussie investors?

Apr 21, 2025 6

Labor -v- Libs: which side has been better for the Aussie share market?

Australian shares Australian economyFinancial Markets

Looking at share market returns under every PM and government since Federation - right-leaning governments win, with significantly higher average returns than left-leaning governments. Left-leaning PMs presided over the worst return periods for the share market, and also the best return periods. However, most of the big differences are due to lucky (or unlucky) timing, and/or delayed causation from prior governments. Our governments on both sides deserve credit for creating favourable conditions for investment. 

Apr 14, 2025

Company insolvencies highest in 35 years - and we’re not even in ‘recession’ yet!

EconomicsAustralian economyRecessionsInterest ratesInflation

Company insolvencies in Australia have soared back to levels not seen since the deep 1990-1 recession. Business is doing it tough - on recession footing already. But the rapidly expanding government sector is doing fine - accounting for almost all of the growth in jobs and economic 'activity' (and artificially suppressing inflation and unemployment numbers), while businesses suffer. 

Apr 09, 2025

March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInterest ratesInflationAsset classes, asset class returns

  Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors -  Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

Apr 01, 2025

Labor -v- Libs: which side has a better record on Deficits & Debts? Here are the facts

EconomicsAustralian economyDebtGovernment – deficits, debt

'Left' governments have run deficits more often than 'Right' governments, and the Left have also run larger deficits on average than the Right. But timing is everything! - the Left happened to be in power during the big deficits and debts in the two World Wars, when spending was bi-partisan. My verdict? - Equal points to Left and Right - but poor scores for both post-GFC. Both sides could have used windfall revenue gains to put our house in order to better prepare for global challenges, rather than increase spending and debt.

Mar 26, 2025 1

‘Buying the dip?’ – ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’? – the Aussie share market experience

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRecessionsAustralian shares Stock market crashes

Following my story on US market dips, here is the same analysis for the ASX: The Aussie market has had 36 dips of -10% or more since 1920.  Buying the dips still resulted in more 'Knives' than 'Bargains', and below average returns overall, but the outcomes were significantly better than buying the dips in the US market. 83% of dips on our market were led by falls on the US market. Of the few dips that were due to local factors alone, most were 'Bargains'. Where are we now? Will I be buying the dip here as the US boom deflates?  

Mar 23, 2025 1

After the mini-correction, should I ‘Buy the dip?’ - Am I ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’?

RecessionsInternational sharesStock market crashesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

The US stock market has had 31 'dips' of -10% or more since 1900. We look at what happened in each case if you 'bought the dip'. In most cases, a 10% dip turned out to be just the start of a much larger fall (further -15% fall on average), and for a much longer period (more than a year of further falls on average). Overall, buying the dip resulted in poor returns over subsequent 1, 3, and 5-year periods, but there were several times when 'buying the dip' led to high returns. Where are we now? How does today's market compare?

Mar 18, 2025 2

Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningInflationInternational shares

The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story.  Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING.  This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns.  The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over.  What this means for retirement planning. 

Feb 16, 2025

Inflation Cycles & the Australian share market - the Big picture

Financial MarketsRetirement planningInflationAustralian shares

Share market returns vary greatly in different inflation conditions. Returns are consistently lower (and below average) when inflation is rising, and consistently higher (and above average) when inflation is falling.  This applies to nominal returns and even more so to 'real' returns after inflation.  If the recent era of declining inflation is over, what comes next? 

Feb 10, 2025 2

January 2025 snapshot: Trump’s pro-growth agenda boosts shares + ChatGPT’s effort- which is better?

EconomicsFinancial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

Here's my monthly wrap-up of financial markets for Australian global investors. What moved markets and why? plus I get ChatGPT to write the same report - let me know which is better! OpenAI founder Sam Altman says ai will replace humans in 868 days time - am I worried? 

Feb 02, 2025 6

Bring on the Trump ‘volatility’! - My Volatility Spike Index separates the calm from the storm

Financial MarketsRecessionsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtStock market crashes

Trump's first term was certainly entertaining, but was it volatile for financial markets? Let's look at facts, not mindless media chatter warning of  'more Trump volatility!', or 'another bumby ride!'. My Volatility Spike Index highlights and compares all volatility spikes since 1970.  

Jan 21, 2025

125 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?

Financial MarketsRecessionsAsset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInternational sharesAustralian shares

It's that time of year again - time to review a whole new year of possible threats, risks, and crises that might blow up share markets.  What are the big risks that might spook investors in 2025? How share markets power through even the greatest crises the world has ever faced. 

Jan 14, 2025 2

What drives the Aussie Dollar? -Part 3: the long-term inflation effect. Where is it heading?

CurrencyInflationAustralian economy

Exchange rates are driven ultimately by differences in inflation.  Inflation transcends and defeats all attempts to peg, fix, or manage currencies.  Why the Aussie dollar has been in long-term decline against the US dollar for more than a century.  Why I am bullish that this long-term decline is probably behind us. 

Jan 10, 2025 4

Cash rates are already too low to contain inflation - why central bankers are in a pickle

EconomicsInflationInterest ratesMoney

The tremendous 2-year rally in share markets (even after this week's mini-fall) has been based on the assumption of several more rate cuts soon. Even if inflation is back to target (it isn't yet), current cash rates are already too low to contain inflation in Australia, the US, and other markets, Be careful what you wish for - the only reason for rapid rate cuts would be a sharp recession - and nobody wants that!

Dec 20, 2024

Who wants to buy US debt? (lend to Uncle Sam?) Most of the world but me! Who’s buying, selling, why?

Financial MarketsDebtGovernment – deficits, debtBonds

Just about everyone is rushing in to lend more money to the profligate US government – except China, Russia, Iran (and me). China has dumped $413b of US debt (one third of its peak holdings) since Trump started his trade war in 2018, and accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the UK soaked up all of that and more, increasing its holdings by $515b.

Dec 13, 2024 5

China’s 4-year trade war with Australia is over. It was the wake-up call we needed!

Commodities & MiningExports, tradeChina

It was a much-needed wake-up call for Aussie exporters to diversify into other markets and reduce their heavy reliance on China.    China's share of exports fell from 42% to 32%, taken up by increasing exports to the rest of Asia, and USA. Australia's exports continued  to

Dec 08, 2024

Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0 – Part 1: Shape & distribution of Economic Growth

EconomicsSocial & EnvironmentalAustralian economyPopulation, demographics, immigration

In the 8 years since the start of Trump’s first term, the global economy has changed fundamentally. Part 1 looks at big changes in the shape and distribution of economic growth: There are 600 million more people in the world. That's more than the entire 19th century! Populations are aging everywhere. The global economic pie is US$10 trillion larger. 

Nov 24, 2024

House prices -v- other Real Assets part 2: Microsoft & US shares

Real Estate and PropertyInflationInternational shares

House prices have soared – but that’s mostly just inflation due to continued debasement of paper money.  Compared to other 'Real Assets', house prices have fallen in value over time.  Case in point: US shares.   

Nov 15, 2024

The house price myth: Sydney house prices -v- other Real assets part 1: Gold

Commodities & MiningReal Estate and PropertyInflationMoney

House prices have soared to astronomical levels in recent years, but have they really? No. Only if you measure them in terms of the increasingly worthless paper money that governments are deliberately debasing.   Comopared to other Real Assets, house prices have actually fallen in value! For example: gold. &

Nov 13, 2024 4

October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAsset classes, asset class returns

Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets?  Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year?  Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?  

Nov 04, 2024

September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsChinaInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets

Oct 01, 2024 4

Gold price pointing to US inflation rising next year - the Fed may not be done yet!

InflationCommoditiesInterest rates

Gold has been the best performing asset class this year, but what is it saying about the outlook for US inflation?   It is pointing to rising US inflation in the year ahead, so the Fed may not be done yet with rate hikes. This would be bearish for US and global share and bond markets.   How does this sit with fears of recession in the US? Why I'm still bullish on US shares and gold - for now.

Sep 23, 2024

"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issuess. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."

Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016),  the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.” 

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

Copyright © 2025 Owen Analytics

About Ashley Owen | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Archive | Disclaimer

The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.