Category: Commodities

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CommoditiesStock storiesESG, renewables, climate change

Woodside case study Part 2: Since 1980 – struggling producer to global giant to fossil fuel pariah!

How Woodside went from cash-strapped explorer to global giant and one of Australia’s biggest export earners. Still a wild ride for investors – as a leveraged bet on commodities prices, plus political risks. Despite huge profits and becoming a top-10 ASX company, still struggles to beat the overall market.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

Commodities & MiningSocial & EnvironmentalCommoditiesStock storiesESG, renewables, climate change

Woodside case study Part 1: 1954 to 1980 – volatile speculative survivor to national hero

Good case study representing the vast majority of ASX listed companies – as a volatile speculative hopeful with no revenues or assets to underpin value. Eventually defied the odds and the elements by actually finding something of enormous value. But it required extreme patience and perseverance – it holds the record for longest wait for first revenue, first profit, and first dividend of any ASX listed co

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

CommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWars & military conflictsStock market crashes

World War II & share markets – Part 2 of 2: Through to the end of the War and aftermath

Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

CommoditiesInternational sharesWars & military conflictsAustralian shares Stock market crashes

World War II & share markets – Part 1 of 2: the Outbreak

War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits. It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong. Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

InflationCommoditiesInterest rates

Gold price pointing to US inflation rising next year - the Fed may not be done yet!

Gold has been the best performing asset class this year, but what is it saying about the outlook for US inflation? It is pointing to rising US inflation in the year ahead, so the Fed may not be done yet with rate hikes. This would be bearish for US and global share and bond markets. How does this sit with fears of recession in the US? Why I'm still bullish on US shares and gold - for now.

Ashley Owen Sep 23, 2024

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesExports, tradeAustralian shares China

Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?

The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle? Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term. How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.

Ashley Owen Sep 05, 2024 1

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWealth, Inequality

Australia: Most listed stocks per capita, and biggest gamblers in the world - Is there a link?

Australia has more listed companies per head of population than just about any other country on earth – and many times more than the US. Why? Is it because we have many times more viable business opportunities to pursue? Or is it because we have the wiliest stock promoters and spruikers, and we are the biggest gamblers in the world? Actually it is both!

Ashley Owen Aug 22, 2024

Wars & military conflictsExports, tradeChinaAustralian economyCommodities

Geopolitics case study - China: largest export customer + potential military threat - a problem?

Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate. Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!

Ashley Owen Jul 03, 2024

Exports, tradeChinaCommoditiesCommodities & Mining

Chinese Steel Production - the Sydney Harbour Bridge Index

China builds another 'Sydney Harbour Bridge' worth of steel every 10 minutes! That's 26,000 Harbour Bridges per year - with our rocks. China's steel production has been single biggest driver of Australia's prosperity this century. But with China's construction market collapsing and economy stagnating, how will that affect us? ·

Ashley Owen Mar 25, 2024

Wars & military conflictsStock storiesAustralian shares CommoditiesCommodities & Mining

Political Risk case study: Bougainville - richest gold mine in the world - but you can't touch it

This company is sitting on the richest copper-gold mine in the world, but it has been locked up for 35 years and can't touch it. Political risk crippled what was once a highly profitable 'blue chip' stock. All investing involves political risk, but political risks can be the most volatile, hardest to quantify, and most wealth-destroying. Or perhaps wealth creating - in the right circumstances and at the right price!

Ashley Owen Mar 19, 2024 4

MoneyInflationCommodities

Gold: Curious case of the '31-year itch'?

Gold is hitting new highs lately, so everyone is looking to jump in. It's time to step back for a moment and look at the big picture: Gold goes through regular 31-year cycles - so where are we now in the cycle? Why gold is a lousy inflation hedge most of the time. Is it cheap or expensive? When it is 'good value'?

Ashley Owen Mar 15, 2024 4

Stock storiesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesCommoditiesCommodities & Mining

Case Study 1969-70 Nickel boom-bust

In 2021 and 2022, when the prices of nickel and nickel explorers/miners were soaring, my inbox was flooded with emails asking which nickel stock(s) to jump into. Since all mining booms follow a familiar pattern, and end the same way for the same reasons, I responded by referring to my story about the mother of all nickel boom-busts – Poseidon, involving the very same nickel mines. How’s a one-year gain of 46,000% sound?

Ashley Owen Mar 13, 2024

CurrencyCommoditiesChina

What drives the Aussie dollar Part 2: Commodities prices

This is the second in a series of articles looking at the four main drivers of the Aussie dollar

Ashley Owen Dec 13, 2023

CommoditiesEconomicsAustralian economyExports, tradeAgricultureCommodities & MiningChina

Australia’s bounty: 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot

Commodities matter! More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners (the vast majority are explorers with little more than a map, a compass, and high hopes, but a small number of miners do actually produce something).

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2023

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Commodities

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