Category: Investment & Wealth Mgmt

Stay Ahead: Professional-Grade Market Intelligence

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Investment & Wealth MgmtAustralian shares International shares

The US stock market is the second LEAST concentrated stock market in the world! Why all the fuss?

Alarmist commentaries allege 'concentration' in the US stock market. Nvidia has shot up to 6% of total US market value. But this is actually the second SMALLEST 'largest stock weight per country' in the world. Only Japan has a less concentrated stock market. The 5 largest US stocks comprise 22% of total US market value, but there are 20 countries where more than 22% is in just ONE stock. The 10 largest US stocks comprise 31% of total US market value, but there are a dozen countries where more than that is in just ONE stock. In Australia there is also rising concern that CBA is now 12 % of total ASX market value. Actually, this is still relatively low. What concerns me is NOT concentrations, but excessive VALUATIONS, and over-confidence that earnings and dividends will rise to justify current prices. &

Ashley Owen Jul 04, 2025

Investment & Wealth MgmtFinancial MarketsInterest ratesInflationAustralian shares International sharesCommodities

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.

Ashley Owen Jul 01, 2025 2

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInternational sharesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesStock market crashes

'Time-in-the-Market' -v- 'Timing the Market'. Which is better? US share market outcomes

Share market returns over all holding periods - even up to 10, 20, and 30 years - are little more than a coin toss. 'Time in the Market' only works if you get the Timing right, which is mostly luck. Finance textbooks and retirement calculators are based on nice, smooth, theoretical curves that assume constant 'median' returns over long periods. But in the real world, only ONE person in the population gets the median. Half will get MORE (sometimes a lot more), and half will get LESS (sometimes a lot less). There have been decade+ periods of zero or even negative real returns. By the time you realise you're in the unlucky wrong half, it may be too late to adjust your strategy.

Ashley Owen Jun 20, 2025 4

Australian shares Stock storiesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Virgin IPO – My 3 simple rules for IPOs (or: ‘This stinking mess again?!’)

Rule 1: If Private Equity is selling - Run. In the other direction. Fast. You can be sure the accounts will be riddled with fudged numbers, hidden liabilities, non-existent 'assets', and a pandora's box of under-handed skullduggery. Rule 2: Any ai (automated idiot) bot will tell you that the 'i' in IPO stands for 'initial'. But this is no 'virgin'. It's been around the block a few times. (Misleading PR. Refer to Rule 1). Rule 3: Ignore the glossy PR, high pressure sales tactics, highly-polished accounts, and do your own research into the business and industry. In this case, why would I want to be part-owner of an under-capitalised, foreign-controlled player in a highly parochial market that has never profitably supported more than one dominant player, which is a government-protected, ex-gov department that wrote the book on political schmoozing?

Ashley Owen Jun 05, 2025

Investment & Wealth MgmtInflationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares

Slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Association seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney

Here are the slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Accociation seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney. Highlights: 4 things about the future we can predict with certainty. 4 things about the future we can be reasonably certain about. Plus we cover - human nature - investor behaviour - bubbles & busts - inflation - longevity - what's behind Trump's agenda, and will it work?

May 07, 2025 4

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInterest ratesInflationAsset classes, asset class returns

March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?

Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors - Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

Ashley Owen Apr 01, 2025

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRecessionsAustralian shares Stock market crashes

‘Buying the dip?’ – ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’? – the Aussie share market experience

Following my story on US market dips, here is the same analysis for the ASX: The Aussie market has had 36 dips of -10% or more since 1920. Buying the dips still resulted in more 'Knives' than 'Bargains', and below average returns overall, but the outcomes were significantly better than buying the dips in the US market. 83% of dips on our market were led by falls on the US market. Of the few dips that were due to local factors alone, most were 'Bargains'. Where are we now? Will I be buying the dip here as the US boom deflates?

Ashley Owen Mar 23, 2025 1

RecessionsInternational sharesStock market crashesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

After the mini-correction, should I ‘Buy the dip?’ - Am I ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’?

The US stock market has had 31 'dips' of -10% or more since 1900. We look at what happened in each case if you 'bought the dip'. In most cases, a 10% dip turned out to be just the start of a much larger fall (further -15% fall on average), and for a much longer period (more than a year of further falls on average). Overall, buying the dip resulted in poor returns over subsequent 1, 3, and 5-year periods, but there were several times when 'buying the dip' led to high returns. Where are we now? How does today's market compare?

Ashley Owen Mar 18, 2025 2

Retirement planningPopulation, demographics, immigrationInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Australia’s aging population - are age pensions, benefits, and tax breaks sustainable in future?

Many retirees live more frugally than necessary, and die with as much Super as they had at retirement. One possible reason may be a rising fear that the current government age pension system is not sustainable and may not be there for life. Despite our aging population, Australia is probably best placed of any country in the world to maintain its government age pension system. Fears of its demise are probably over-done. However, it is probably inevitable that the age pension, and/or the generous tax-breaks and benefits that go with it, will need to be scaled back in future. Future retirees should aim for financial independence, not welfare reliance, to be safe.

Ashley Owen Mar 15, 2025 2

Investment & Wealth MgmtAustralian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?

Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?

Ashley Owen Mar 06, 2025 4

Investment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesBonds

What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!

This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start. Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!)

Ashley Owen Feb 21, 2025 13

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningInflationInternational shares

Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained

The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story. Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING. This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns. The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over. What this means for retirement planning.

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2025

Financial MarketsRecessionsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtStock market crashes

Bring on the Trump ‘volatility’! - My Volatility Spike Index separates the calm from the storm

Trump's first term was certainly entertaining, but was it volatile for financial markets? Let's look at facts, not mindless media chatter warning of 'more Trump volatility!', or 'another bumby ride!'. My Volatility Spike Index highlights and compares all volatility spikes since 1970.

Ashley Owen Jan 21, 2025

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtReal Estate and PropertyAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian shares Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational shares

Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!

How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all

Ashley Owen Jan 20, 2025 2

Financial MarketsAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesCrypto

November 2024 snapshot: Trump, Gold, & Bitcoin!

Here is my essential snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors. The Trump circus continues - and a new era of crony capitalism. Share market up - heading for another cracking year. Interest rates & inflation - down everywhere but here. Gold & Bitcoin shine - but which is better?

Ashley Owen Dec 01, 2024

Retirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Podcast with James Kirby – ‘How much should you have in Super – Seriously!’

Yesterday I had the great privilege and pleasure of being interviewed by James Kirby for his popular weekly podcast: ‘The Money Puzzle’ for The Australian. Here we tackle some of the most common questions from investors - How much do you need? Why you can't rely on online retirement calculators? How to estimate how long you might live? Why 2/3 of retirees still rely on the government age pension after 30+ years of compulsory Super?

Ashley Owen Jul 05, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt

Virgin Airlines round 1: Crash Landing for investors

Virgin Airlines is in the news again. It is being tarted by shifty private equity tricksters hoping to lure another batch of gullible investors into parting with their hard-earned cash - again. Before getting into the merits of Round 2, it’s worth taking a look at what happened in Round 1. (Spoiler alert - Covid did not kill it. It was a dud from the start, and it was killed by bad management expanding too aggressively and running up too much debt.) What are the lessons from the last sorry tale? Has anything changed?

Ashley Owen Jun 11, 2024

Managed fundsAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money - Why?

Active fund managers are almost universally useless. Here is my updated report on how much wealth they destroy for Aussie investors. Are they getting any better? Why do we let them take $4.5b from our pockets every year? Where does the money go? How much do they pocket? How much do they just throw away through incompetence?

Ashley Owen May 22, 2024 6

MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

‘What’s your Number? Part 2: 17 key factors driving ‘How much do I need’ & ‘How much can I spend?'

Here are 17 key drivers that determine 'How much do I need to retire', and 'How much can I afford to spend?' How do they work, and how do they apply to you? This handy guide will help you come up with your own Number that suits your needs and goals.

Ashley Owen May 14, 2024

MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

What's your Number? Part 1: 'How much do I need to retire?', 'How much can I afford to spend?'

Here we tackle these difficult questions, and similar questions like: 'When can I afford to retire?' 'Will my money last as long as I do? Here are the two key Numbers to tackle these questions. Plus two quick tests to help measure progress toward your goal.

Ashley Owen May 10, 2024

Managed fundsInternational sharesExchange Traded FundsBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation

The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!

Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well! But that era of great returns from low inflation is over. What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?

Ashley Owen Apr 16, 2024

InflationAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt

Dr Don Stammer's 60 years of investing

In Dr Don Stammer's speech this week, capping off his 60 year career, he only used 2 charts. Both were mine!

Ashley Owen Feb 22, 2024

Retirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Personal milestones for January 2024

January is often a big month for personal milestones. Here are mine:

Ashley Owen Feb 08, 2024

CryptoInternational sharesAustralian shares Interest ratesInflationAustralian economy

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls. Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.

Ashley Owen Feb 05, 2024 2

Australian shares Investment & Wealth MgmtAsset allocation, portfolio construction

‘Frankly my dear . . . we need to include Franking Credits in reporting and portfolio planning’

Franking credits on dividends on Australian shares can add more than 1% per year to returns for Australian shareholders. But many professionals don’t include the value of franking credits in their clients’ returns – either historical, or forecast.

Ashley Owen Sep 26, 2023

Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtManaged funds

Warren Buffett: world’s greatest investor, but even he lost it 20 years ago.

Many readers wanted me to back up by bold claim that even the best investor in the world – Warren Buffet – suffered from the same disease that plagues every other successful fund manager in the world - fading out-performance over time.

Ashley Owen Sep 24, 2023 2

Asset allocation, portfolio constructionInvestment & Wealth MgmtManaged funds

Few active fund managers add value. But even value-adding managers almost always fade over time.

Many active fund managers start out well, but they all peak early in their careers, and then it is all downhill from there. Even for the best in the world. Here are 20 actual fund examples, plus 15 reasons for inevitable fund performance fade (the causes are different for every fund), and how to spot them in time.

Ashley Owen Sep 21, 2023

Asset allocation, portfolio constructionInvestment & Wealth MgmtManaged funds

Most active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money

Over the year to June 2023, active managed funds in Australia destroyed $4.5 billion in wealth from retail investors. Half of this was a straight transfer of wealth from the pockets of innocent investors to the pockets of fund managers. The other half was genuine wealth destruction through incompetence.

Ashley Owen Sep 18, 2023

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.

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‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.

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“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

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“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.

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"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issuess. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."

Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).

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“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

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Investment & Wealth Mgmt

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