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Investment & Wealth Mgmt

1-28 out of 28 results.

The US stock market is the second LEAST concentrated stock market in the world! Why all the fuss?

Investment & Wealth MgmtAustralian shares International shares

Alarmist commentaries allege 'concentration' in the US stock market. Nvidia has shot up to 6% of total US market value. But this is actually the second SMALLEST 'largest stock weight per country' in the world. Only Japan has a less concentrated stock market. The 5 largest US stocks comprise 22% of total US market value, but there are 20 countries where more than 22% is in just ONE stock. The 10 largest US stocks comprise 31% of total US market value, but there are a dozen countries where more than that is in just ONE stock. In Australia there is also rising concern that CBA is now 12 % of total ASX market value. Actually, this is still relatively low. What concerns me is NOT concentrations, but excessive VALUATIONS, and over-confidence that earnings and dividends will rise to justify current prices. &

Jul 04, 2025

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

Investment & Wealth MgmtFinancial MarketsInterest ratesInflationAustralian shares International sharesCommodities

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.

Jul 01, 2025 2

'Time-in-the-Market' -v- 'Timing the Market'. Which is better? US share market outcomes

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInternational sharesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesStock market crashes

Share market returns over all holding periods - even up to 10, 20, and 30 years - are little more than a coin toss. 'Time in the Market' only works if you get the Timing right, which is mostly luck. Finance textbooks and retirement calculators are based on nice, smooth, theoretical curves that assume constant 'median' returns over long periods. But in the real world, only ONE person in the population gets the median. Half will get MORE (sometimes a lot more), and half will get LESS (sometimes a lot less). There have been decade+ periods of zero or even negative real returns. By the time you realise you're in the unlucky wrong half, it may be too late to adjust your strategy.

Jun 20, 2025 4

Virgin IPO – My 3 simple rules for IPOs (or: ‘This stinking mess again?!’)

Australian shares Stock storiesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Rule 1: If Private Equity is selling - Run. In the other direction. Fast. You can be sure the accounts will be riddled with fudged numbers, hidden liabilities, non-existent 'assets', and a pandora's box of under-handed skullduggery. Rule 2: Any ai (automated idiot) bot will tell you that the 'i' in IPO stands for 'initial'. But this is no 'virgin'. It's been around the block a few times. (Misleading PR. Refer to Rule 1). Rule 3: Ignore the glossy PR, high pressure sales tactics, highly-polished accounts, and do your own research into the business and industry. In this case, why would I want to be part-owner of an under-capitalised, foreign-controlled player in a highly parochial market that has never profitably supported more than one dominant player, which is a government-protected, ex-gov department that wrote the book on political schmoozing?

Jun 05, 2025

Slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Association seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney

Investment & Wealth MgmtInflationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares

Here are the slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Accociation seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney. Highlights: 4 things about the future we can predict with certainty. 4 things about the future we can be reasonably certain about. Plus we cover - human nature - investor behaviour - bubbles & busts - inflation - longevity - what's behind Trump's agenda, and will it work?

May 07, 2025 4

March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInterest ratesInflationAsset classes, asset class returns

  Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors -  Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

Apr 01, 2025

‘Buying the dip?’ – ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’? – the Aussie share market experience

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRecessionsAustralian shares Stock market crashes

Following my story on US market dips, here is the same analysis for the ASX: The Aussie market has had 36 dips of -10% or more since 1920.  Buying the dips still resulted in more 'Knives' than 'Bargains', and below average returns overall, but the outcomes were significantly better than buying the dips in the US market. 83% of dips on our market were led by falls on the US market. Of the few dips that were due to local factors alone, most were 'Bargains'. Where are we now? Will I be buying the dip here as the US boom deflates?  

Mar 23, 2025 1

After the mini-correction, should I ‘Buy the dip?’ - Am I ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’?

RecessionsInternational sharesStock market crashesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

The US stock market has had 31 'dips' of -10% or more since 1900. We look at what happened in each case if you 'bought the dip'. In most cases, a 10% dip turned out to be just the start of a much larger fall (further -15% fall on average), and for a much longer period (more than a year of further falls on average). Overall, buying the dip resulted in poor returns over subsequent 1, 3, and 5-year periods, but there were several times when 'buying the dip' led to high returns. Where are we now? How does today's market compare?

Mar 18, 2025 2

Australia’s aging population - are age pensions, benefits, and tax breaks sustainable in future?

Retirement planningPopulation, demographics, immigrationInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

  Many retirees live more frugally than necessary, and die with as much Super as they had at retirement. One possible reason may be a rising fear that the current government age pension system is not sustainable and may not be there for life. Despite our aging population, Australia is probably best placed of any country in the world to maintain its government age pension system. Fears of its demise are probably over-done. However, it is probably inevitable that the age pension, and/or the generous tax-breaks and benefits that go with it, will need to be scaled back in future. Future retirees should aim for financial independence, not welfare reliance, to be safe. 

Mar 15, 2025 2

Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?

Investment & Wealth MgmtAustralian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?

Mar 06, 2025 4

What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!

Investment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesBonds

This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start.  Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!) 

Feb 21, 2025 13

Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningInflationInternational shares

The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story.  Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING.  This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns.  The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over.  What this means for retirement planning. 

Feb 16, 2025

Bring on the Trump ‘volatility’! - My Volatility Spike Index separates the calm from the storm

Financial MarketsRecessionsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtStock market crashes

Trump's first term was certainly entertaining, but was it volatile for financial markets? Let's look at facts, not mindless media chatter warning of  'more Trump volatility!', or 'another bumby ride!'. My Volatility Spike Index highlights and compares all volatility spikes since 1970.  

Jan 21, 2025

Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtReal Estate and PropertyAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian shares Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational shares

How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all

Jan 20, 2025 2

November 2024 snapshot: Trump, Gold, & Bitcoin!

Financial MarketsAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesCrypto

Here is my essential snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors.  The Trump circus continues - and a new era of crony capitalism. Share market up - heading for another cracking year. Interest rates & inflation - down everywhere but here. Gold & Bitcoin shine - but which is better?

Dec 01, 2024

Podcast with James Kirby – ‘How much should you have in Super – Seriously!’

Retirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Yesterday I had the great privilege and pleasure of being interviewed by James Kirby for his popular weekly podcast: ‘The Money Puzzle’ for The Australian. Here we tackle some of the most common questions from investors -  How much do you need? Why you can't rely on online retirement calculators? How to estimate how long you might live? Why 2/3 of retirees still rely on the government age pension after 30+ years of compulsory Super?

Jul 05, 2024

Virgin Airlines round 1: Crash Landing for investors

Stock storiesAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt

Virgin Airlines is in the news again. It is being tarted by shifty private equity tricksters hoping to lure another batch of gullible investors into parting with their hard-earned cash - again. Before getting into the merits of Round 2, it’s worth taking a look at what happened in Round 1. (Spoiler alert - Covid did not kill it. It was a dud from the start, and it was killed by bad management expanding too aggressively and running up too much debt.) What are the lessons from the last sorry tale? Has anything changed?

Jun 11, 2024

Active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money - Why?

Managed fundsAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Active fund managers are almost universally useless. Here is my updated report on how much wealth they destroy for Aussie investors. Are they getting any better? Why do we let them take $4.5b from our pockets every year? Where does the money go? How much do they pocket? How much do they just throw away through incompetence?  

May 22, 2024 6

‘What’s your Number? Part 2: 17 key factors driving ‘How much do I need’ & ‘How much can I spend?'

MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Here are 17 key drivers that determine 'How much do I need to retire', and 'How much can I afford to spend?' How do they work, and how do they apply to you? This handy guide will help you come up with your own Number that suits your needs and goals.

May 14, 2024

What's your Number? Part 1: 'How much do I need to retire?', 'How much can I afford to spend?'

MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Here we tackle these difficult questions, and similar questions like: 'When can I afford to retire?' 'Will my money last as long as I do?   Here are the two key Numbers to tackle these questions.  Plus two quick tests to help measure progress toward your goal.

May 10, 2024

The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!

Managed fundsInternational sharesExchange Traded FundsBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation

Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well!   But that era of great returns from low inflation is over.  What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?

Apr 16, 2024

Dr Don Stammer's 60 years of investing

InflationAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt

In Dr Don Stammer's speech this week, capping off his 60 year career, he only used 2 charts. Both were mine!      

Feb 22, 2024

Personal milestones for January 2024

Retirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

January is often a big month for personal milestones.  Here are mine:

Feb 08, 2024

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls

CryptoInternational sharesAustralian shares Interest ratesInflationAustralian economy

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls.  Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.

Feb 05, 2024 2

‘Frankly my dear . . . we need to include Franking Credits in reporting and portfolio planning’

Australian shares Investment & Wealth MgmtAsset allocation, portfolio construction

Franking credits on dividends on Australian shares can add more than 1% per year to returns for Australian shareholders. But many professionals don’t include the value of franking credits in their clients’ returns – either historical, or forecast.

Sep 26, 2023

Warren Buffett: world’s greatest investor, but even he lost it 20 years ago.

Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtManaged funds

Many readers wanted me to back up by bold claim that even the best investor in the world – Warren Buffet – suffered from the same disease that plagues every other successful fund manager in the world - fading out-performance over time.

Sep 24, 2023 2

Few active fund managers add value. But even value-adding managers almost always fade over time.

Asset allocation, portfolio constructionInvestment & Wealth MgmtManaged funds

Many active fund managers start out well, but they all peak early in their careers, and then it is all downhill from there. Even for the best in the world.   Here are 20 actual fund examples, plus 15 reasons for inevitable fund performance fade (the causes are different for every fund), and how to spot them in time.

Sep 21, 2023

Most active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money

Asset allocation, portfolio constructionInvestment & Wealth MgmtManaged funds

Over the year to June 2023, active managed funds in Australia destroyed $4.5 billion in wealth from retail investors. Half of this was a straight transfer of wealth from the pockets of innocent investors to the pockets of fund managers. The other half was genuine wealth destruction through incompetence.

Sep 18, 2023

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.

"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issuess. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."

Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016),  the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.” 

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.

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About Ashley Owen | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Archive | Disclaimer

The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.