Saturday, July 26, 2025
Australia’s aging population - are age pensions, benefits, and tax breaks sustainable in future?
Many retirees live more frugally than necessary, and die with as much Super as they had at retirement. One possible reason may be a rising fear that the current government age pension system is not sustainable and may not be there for life. Despite our aging population, Australia is probably best placed of any country in the world to maintain its government age pension system. Fears of its demise are probably over-done. However, it is probably inevitable that the age pension, and/or the generous tax-breaks and benefits that go with it, will need to be scaled back in future. Future retirees should aim for financial independence, not welfare reliance, to be safe.
Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0 – Part 1: Shape & distribution of Economic Growth
In the 8 years since the start of Trump’s first term, the global economy has changed fundamentally. Part 1 looks at big changes in the shape and distribution of economic growth: There are 600 million more people in the world. That's more than the entire 19th century! Populations are aging everywhere. The global economic pie is US$10 trillion larger.
Report from the Big Apple on election eve 2024 - to the Barricades!
Having spent the past 18 days travelling around North America, here are my top-10 observations on the election race from New York. What are Americans saying about the election race and the campaigns? Barricades are being erected all over New York City – is it in anticipation of civil unrest following the election?
Woodside case study Part 2: Since 1980 – struggling producer to global giant to fossil fuel pariah!
How Woodside went from cash-strapped explorer to global giant and one of Australia’s biggest export earners. Still a wild ride for investors – as a leveraged bet on commodities prices, plus political risks. Despite huge profits and becoming a top-10 ASX company, still struggles to beat the overall market.
Woodside case study Part 1: 1954 to 1980 – volatile speculative survivor to national hero
Good case study representing the vast majority of ASX listed companies – as a volatile speculative hopeful with no revenues or assets to underpin value. Eventually defied the odds and the elements by actually finding something of enormous value. But it required extreme patience and perseverance – it holds the record for longest wait for first revenue, first profit, and first dividend of any ASX listed co
World War II & share markets – Part 2 of 2: Through to the end of the War and aftermath
Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.
World War II & share markets – Part 1 of 2: the Outbreak
War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits. It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong. Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.
Australia: Most listed stocks per capita, and biggest gamblers in the world - Is there a link?
Australia has more listed companies per head of population than just about any other country on earth – and many times more than the US. Why? Is it because we have many times more viable business opportunities to pursue? Or is it because we have the wiliest stock promoters and spruikers, and we are the biggest gamblers in the world? Actually it is both!
Paris Olympics – who were the real winners adjusted for population and wealth?
It was Australia's best ever medal haul based on a simple medal count. But who were the real winners when we adjust for the vast differences in population and wealth in each country? How do we really rate against our rivals and peers?
Geopolitics case study - China: largest export customer + potential military threat - a problem?
Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate. Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!
Political Risk case study: Bougainville - richest gold mine in the world - but you can't touch it
This company is sitting on the richest copper-gold mine in the world, but it has been locked up for 35 years and can't touch it. Political risk crippled what was once a highly profitable 'blue chip' stock. All investing involves political risk, but political risks can be the most volatile, hardest to quantify, and most wealth-destroying. Or perhaps wealth creating - in the right circumstances and at the right price!
Australia's shrinking growth - mostly just population growth
Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on population rather than real reforms to improve productivity and living standards. It has been deteriorating for several decades through governments of all types. Here is the Big Picture you will not find anywhere else.
Residential Landlords v Tenants: Australia is 'Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell'
Australia has the fastest rising residential property prices and rents in the world, making it Residential ‘Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell’. The tide will turn one day, but when?
Woolworths ESG case study: Duties to owners -v- suppliers, customers, staff
Woolworths CEO forced out early - despite good profit margins and returns on equity. How to balance maximising shareholder value versus other key stakeholders.
Australia's 'Misery Index': Inflation + Unemployment
Australia's Misery Index: Unemployment + Inflation. Where are we now?
Australia's remarkable population-led growth
Australia’s population just hit 27 million, 18 years sooner than planned. Australia has the highest population growth rate outside of Africa, but it is still the sparsest country on earth.
Reflections on Australia - lucky country for investors!
In Australia we tend to take a lot for granted. Australia is the richest country in the world per capita (a record we have held since 1890) - but why? It's not just resource riches and/or British colonisation - there are plenty of resource-rich countries, and plenty of ex-British colonies that are economic basket cases today. How I personally got lucky - twice - in the great lottery of life.
124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?
Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?
Australia v US share markets – it’s our turn next!
Australia and the US have had the best share markets in the world for the past 100+ years, but: Why? Which market has generated higher returns? Which has had the bigger booms and busts? Who’s turn is it next?
Where are You on the Income Tax Pyramid? 42% of adults pay no tax!
It’s tax return time in Australia. As we fill in our tax returns and pay our taxes, we often wonder – Am I paying too much tax? Am I paying my ‘fair share?’ What is a ‘fair share’, anyway?
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issuess. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.