Category: Investment Bubbles/Busts, Cycles

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1-16 out of 16 results.

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInternational sharesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesStock market crashes

'Time-in-the-Market' -v- 'Timing the Market'. Which is better? US share market outcomes

Share market returns over all holding periods - even up to 10, 20, and 30 years - are little more than a coin toss. 'Time in the Market' only works if you get the Timing right, which is mostly luck. Finance textbooks and retirement calculators are based on nice, smooth, theoretical curves that assume constant 'median' returns over long periods. But in the real world, only ONE person in the population gets the median. Half will get MORE (sometimes a lot more), and half will get LESS (sometimes a lot less). There have been decade+ periods of zero or even negative real returns. By the time you realise you're in the unlucky wrong half, it may be too late to adjust your strategy.

Ashley Owen Jun 20, 2025 4

Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational shares

US Shares: ambitious multiples on ambitious accelerating profit outlooks. But powering on regardless

In the March qtr reporting season, S&P500 companies posted good earnings growth of +13% for the past 12 months, after decent +9% growth in the prior 12 months. Consensus forecasts for the next two years have been cut over the past month (tariff impact fears) but they are still forecasting an acceleration of earnings to +15% growth in calendar 2025, plus a further +15% growth in 2026. That's still incredibly ambitious! Current pricing is also a very bullish 28 times trailing earnings, and 25 times the next year's forecast earnings. These are very optimistic multiples on very optimistic accelerating earnings outlooks - a double layer of over-confidence - and highly vulnerable to negative shocks. But investors have shrugged off Trump's tariffs, negative GDP, and Moody's credit downgrade. So far so good!

Ashley Owen May 20, 2025

Investment & Wealth MgmtInflationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares

Slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Association seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney

Here are the slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Accociation seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney. Highlights: 4 things about the future we can predict with certainty. 4 things about the future we can be reasonably certain about. Plus we cover - human nature - investor behaviour - bubbles & busts - inflation - longevity - what's behind Trump's agenda, and will it work?

May 07, 2025 4

International sharesStock storiesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles

How the ‘Magnificent-7’ stack up – 8 key charts

Just 7 companies make up 19% of the combined value of the entire 15,000 companies listed on world share markets, but they produce just 12% of total world profits, and just 3% of world dividends. They are over-priced on just about every measure, but are they worth it? What justified their astronomical pricing? There is a fairly obvious odd-one-out here - which is it? I have been bullish on US/global shares in portfolios - will this change?

Ashley Owen Jan 28, 2025 2

Financial MarketsRecessionsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtStock market crashes

Bring on the Trump ‘volatility’! - My Volatility Spike Index separates the calm from the storm

Trump's first term was certainly entertaining, but was it volatile for financial markets? Let's look at facts, not mindless media chatter warning of 'more Trump volatility!', or 'another bumby ride!'. My Volatility Spike Index highlights and compares all volatility spikes since 1970.

Ashley Owen Jan 21, 2025

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtReal Estate and PropertyAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian shares Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational shares

Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!

How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all

Ashley Owen Jan 20, 2025 2

Australian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles

We're half-way through the 2020s decade! Here's the half-time score check on Aussie shares

The decade half-time score check for the Aussie share market is not that good: Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far (and below other markets eg the US). It has been below average all decade – after a poor start with the 2020 Covid lockdowns. But all is not lost – some past decades also started out slow but ended up with good full decade returns. There is plenty of time left this decade for the next big speculative boom to lift the share market – history is on our side!

Ashley Owen Dec 16, 2024

Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian shares Financial Markets

‘Worst’ days on the ASX? (" . . . THAT’s a knife!”)

After my story on Monday pointing out that the -3.8% fall on the ASX was relatively minor and there have been dozens of worse days on the ASX - many people asked me what those 'big' down days were, so here they are. What were the really bad days on the Australian share market? What caused them? How do they compare to the worst days on Wall Street? Are share markets really 'random' like finance theory claims?

Ashley Owen Aug 08, 2024

Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesStock market crashes

Not all world share markets are hitting new highs. Here are the Pretty Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Most world share markets are hitting new highs this year, but some are not Here they are - the Pretty Good, the Bad, and the Ugly How does your country rate?

Ashley Owen Apr 05, 2024 2

Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares

Dozens of world share markets are hitting new highs - the myth of the Magnificent-7

It's not just the 'Magnificent-7' US tech giants, and it's not just US shares. There are dozens of share markets hitting new highs all over the world. Want proof? Here they are!

Ashley Owen Apr 03, 2024

Stock storiesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesCommoditiesCommodities & Mining

Case Study 1969-70 Nickel boom-bust

In 2021 and 2022, when the prices of nickel and nickel explorers/miners were soaring, my inbox was flooded with emails asking which nickel stock(s) to jump into. Since all mining booms follow a familiar pattern, and end the same way for the same reasons, I responded by referring to my story about the mother of all nickel boom-busts – Poseidon, involving the very same nickel mines. How’s a one-year gain of 46,000% sound?

Ashley Owen Mar 13, 2024

Stock market crashesWars & military conflictsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsRecessionsRetirement planning

124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?

Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?

Ashley Owen Jan 17, 2024

Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesRecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomics

Why do share markets crash? – Part B: Update on Australia

The simple answer is that the Australian share market crashes (and rebounds) because, and when, the US market does. The US is the largest and most influential market that affects all global markets, asset classes, and investors. What happens on our local market is almost always driven by what happens on Wall Street (with rare exceptions like 1907 and 1951), regardless of local conditions, events, or pricing.

Ashley Owen Nov 27, 2023

Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian economyPopulation, demographics, immigrationStock market crashes

Australia v US share markets – it’s our turn next!

Australia and the US have had the best share markets in the world for the past 100+ years, but: Why? Which market has generated higher returns? Which has had the bigger booms and busts? Who’s turn is it next?

Ashley Owen Nov 20, 2023

Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtManaged funds

Warren Buffett: world’s greatest investor, but even he lost it 20 years ago.

Many readers wanted me to back up by bold claim that even the best investor in the world – Warren Buffet – suffered from the same disease that plagues every other successful fund manager in the world - fading out-performance over time.

Ashley Owen Sep 24, 2023 2

Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian shares Recessions

ASX reporting season in 4 charts - $40b wiped off profits! - where did it go, and why?

August is the main full-year reporting season for Australian listed companies, as most companies have June reporting years. For ASX100 companies that reported their June full-year results in August, total profits fell by one third from $116b to $76b.

Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2023

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

Investment Bubbles/Busts, Cycles

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