Category: Australian Shares

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Investment & Wealth MgmtFinancial MarketsInterest ratesInflationAustralian shares International sharesCommodities

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.

Ashley Owen Jul 01, 2025 2

Australian shares Stock storiesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Virgin IPO – My 3 simple rules for IPOs (or: ‘This stinking mess again?!’)

Rule 1: If Private Equity is selling - Run. In the other direction. Fast. You can be sure the accounts will be riddled with fudged numbers, hidden liabilities, non-existent 'assets', and a pandora's box of under-handed skullduggery. Rule 2: Any ai (automated idiot) bot will tell you that the 'i' in IPO stands for 'initial'. But this is no 'virgin'. It's been around the block a few times. (Misleading PR. Refer to Rule 1). Rule 3: Ignore the glossy PR, high pressure sales tactics, highly-polished accounts, and do your own research into the business and industry. In this case, why would I want to be part-owner of an under-capitalised, foreign-controlled player in a highly parochial market that has never profitably supported more than one dominant player, which is a government-protected, ex-gov department that wrote the book on political schmoozing?

Ashley Owen Jun 05, 2025

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

May 2025 snapshot: Shares rebound + the latest on inflation, rate cuts, and the TACO trade

Share markets surge back in May after three negative months under Trump. My base case scenario - 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out) is on track. (I didn't come up with that name - I wish I had!) Moody's strips the US government of its Aaa credit rating and shares surged, just like they did after the S&P downgrade in 2011. Labor wins 'landslide' election in Australia (how 34% of the primary vote is a landslide is a mystery to me) - so it's all systems go for even more government spending and 'tax-the-rich!'

Ashley Owen Jun 01, 2025 2

Government – deficits, debtInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio construction

My latest webinar for IFPA- Elections, inflation, rate cuts, shares, Trump: is there a grand plan?

Here's my latest webinar for the IFPA's Investment Insight series from 9 May 2025. It's a rollicking romp through some critical issues facing long-term investors in these exciting times. Topics include - elections - productivity - inflation - rate cuts - share market action & valuation levels - and the dreaded 'T' word! Is there a grand plan behind Trump's frenzy of policies?

Ashley Owen May 14, 2025

Investment & Wealth MgmtInflationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares

Slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Association seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney

Here are the slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Accociation seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney. Highlights: 4 things about the future we can predict with certainty. 4 things about the future we can be reasonably certain about. Plus we cover - human nature - investor behaviour - bubbles & busts - inflation - longevity - what's behind Trump's agenda, and will it work?

May 07, 2025 4

Australian shares Australian economyFinancial Markets

Labor -v- Libs: which side has been better for the Aussie share market?

Looking at share market returns under every PM and government since Federation - right-leaning governments win, with significantly higher average returns than left-leaning governments. Left-leaning PMs presided over the worst return periods for the share market, and also the best return periods. However, most of the big differences are due to lucky (or unlucky) timing, and/or delayed causation from prior governments. Our governments on both sides deserve credit for creating favourable conditions for investment.

Ashley Owen Apr 14, 2025

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRecessionsAustralian shares Stock market crashes

‘Buying the dip?’ – ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’? – the Aussie share market experience

Following my story on US market dips, here is the same analysis for the ASX: The Aussie market has had 36 dips of -10% or more since 1920. Buying the dips still resulted in more 'Knives' than 'Bargains', and below average returns overall, but the outcomes were significantly better than buying the dips in the US market. 83% of dips on our market were led by falls on the US market. Of the few dips that were due to local factors alone, most were 'Bargains'. Where are we now? Will I be buying the dip here as the US boom deflates?

Ashley Owen Mar 23, 2025 1

Investment & Wealth MgmtAustralian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?

Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?

Ashley Owen Mar 06, 2025 4

Australian shares Stock market crashesFinancial Markets

ASX down 8 days in a row - Ouch! Do sustained down-runs point to a market correction?

Runs of 8 straight down days are not that uncommon. In fact they occur about 50% more frequently than they statistically should if the market was 'random'. Long runs of down days were much more common in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The market has been much smoother (less susceptible to sustained negative sentiment) in recent decades. Some long down runs were at the start of major corrections, some were in the middle, and some were at the end. But almost all long down runs on the ASX were part of a major market correction.

Ashley Owen Feb 26, 2025

Financial MarketsRetirement planningInflationAustralian shares

Inflation Cycles & the Australian share market - the Big picture

Share market returns vary greatly in different inflation conditions. Returns are consistently lower (and below average) when inflation is rising, and consistently higher (and above average) when inflation is falling. This applies to nominal returns and even more so to 'real' returns after inflation. If the recent era of declining inflation is over, what comes next?

Ashley Owen Feb 10, 2025 2

Australian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio constructionRetirement planning

Australia: Highest dividend yields in the world, so why the endless chase for even higher yields?

Australia has, and has had for decades, the highest dividend yielding share market in the world. This delivers enormous benefits to Aussie investors and retirees by eliminating many of the portfolio planning issues and risks faced in other countries. So why the endless yield chase - where so many people fall victim to high-yield traps and scams?

Ashley Owen Feb 04, 2025 4

EconomicsFinancial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

January 2025 snapshot: Trump’s pro-growth agenda boosts shares + ChatGPT’s effort- which is better?

Here's my monthly wrap-up of financial markets for Australian global investors. What moved markets and why? plus I get ChatGPT to write the same report - let me know which is better! OpenAI founder Sam Altman says ai will replace humans in 868 days time - am I worried?

Ashley Owen Feb 02, 2025 6

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtReal Estate and PropertyAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian shares Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational shares

Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!

How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all

Ashley Owen Jan 20, 2025 2

Financial MarketsRecessionsAsset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInternational sharesAustralian shares

125 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?

It's that time of year again - time to review a whole new year of possible threats, risks, and crises that might blow up share markets. What are the big risks that might spook investors in 2025? How share markets power through even the greatest crises the world has ever faced.

Ashley Owen Jan 14, 2025 2

Financial MarketsInternational sharesAustralian shares

2024 - another good year for most global share markets - defying predictions of recession & crash

80% of global share markets are up again in 2024 - it's not just US big-tech 'lifting the world'. That's two great years in a row of great returns - can it last another year? What were the best and worst share markets in 2024, and why?

Ashley Owen Dec 30, 2024

Australian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles

We're half-way through the 2020s decade! Here's the half-time score check on Aussie shares

The decade half-time score check for the Aussie share market is not that good: Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far (and below other markets eg the US). It has been below average all decade – after a poor start with the 2020 Covid lockdowns. But all is not lost – some past decades also started out slow but ended up with good full decade returns. There is plenty of time left this decade for the next big speculative boom to lift the share market – history is on our side!

Ashley Owen Dec 16, 2024

CommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWars & military conflictsStock market crashes

World War II & share markets – Part 2 of 2: Through to the end of the War and aftermath

Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

CommoditiesInternational sharesWars & military conflictsAustralian shares Stock market crashes

World War II & share markets – Part 1 of 2: the Outbreak

War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits. It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong. Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsChinaInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?

Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets

Ashley Owen Oct 01, 2024 4

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesExports, tradeAustralian shares China

Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?

The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle? Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term. How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.

Ashley Owen Sep 05, 2024 1

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

August 2024 snapshot: Shares hold up - still waiting for US rate cut(s)

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets and why? Who were the winners and losers in global and local share markets?

Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2024

Australian shares Stock stories

Transurban – end of the gravy train for monopoly toll road powerhouse?

Transurban (TCL) was one of Australia’s great corporate success stories – until it was hit by a triple-whammy of Covid lockdowns, inflation, and public/political backlashes. Do the new CEO and chairperson have the political cunning and connections to revive Transurban’s once-golden yellow brick road? Here's my take on Transurban for long term investors.

Ashley Owen Aug 27, 2024 2

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWealth, Inequality

Australia: Most listed stocks per capita, and biggest gamblers in the world - Is there a link?

Australia has more listed companies per head of population than just about any other country on earth – and many times more than the US. Why? Is it because we have many times more viable business opportunities to pursue? Or is it because we have the wiliest stock promoters and spruikers, and we are the biggest gamblers in the world? Actually it is both!

Ashley Owen Aug 22, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyCurrencyAustralian economy

Australia’s big banks: Origin of the Species, or ‘Survival of the Fattest!’

Ever wondered where our big dinosaur banks came from, and how they got so big? And why they are all virtually the same? How Australia became the richest country in the world per capita - without a central bank, without a national currency, and without bank regulation? How the dozens of small, independent, competitive banks became the big-4 government protected oligopoly we have today?

Ashley Owen Aug 15, 2024 2

Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian shares Financial Markets

‘Worst’ days on the ASX? (" . . . THAT’s a knife!”)

After my story on Monday pointing out that the -3.8% fall on the ASX was relatively minor and there have been dozens of worse days on the ASX - many people asked me what those 'big' down days were, so here they are. What were the really bad days on the Australian share market? What caused them? How do they compare to the worst days on Wall Street? Are share markets really 'random' like finance theory claims?

Ashley Owen Aug 08, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares Asset allocation, portfolio constructionRetirement planning

CBA in 7 charts – the ‘Steven Bradbury’ of Australian banking – now suddenly a ‘growth stock’?

I am neither a buyer nor a seller - so why does it matter? Why CBA is the 'Steven Bradbury' of the banking world? Its share price is soaring but its fundamentals stalled a decade ago. What sort of returns can we expect in future? Here's my quick take in 7 charts.

Ashley Owen Jul 29, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyAustralian economyFinancial Markets

Labor’s attempt to nationalise all banks in Australia!

Australians have always had a love-hate relationship with their banks. (OK, so it’s mostly hate). But it was not always the case. Believe it or not, there was a time when the Australian public loved their banks so much they kicked out a Federal government that was trying to close the banks down! Here is the remarkable story of Banks -v- Politics, Capitalism -v- Socialism right here in Australia.

Ashley Owen Jul 21, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyFinancial Markets

Which Bank? . . is winning the Battle of the Banks?

Quick 2-question Quiz on Aussie Banks - Q1 - Which of the big Aussie banks has had the largest % share price gain this year? - No it's not CBA, despite all the media attention and hype. Q2 - Which of the big banks has been the best for shareholders over the past one, two, and three decades? - No its not CBA either, despite the widely held belief that it is!

Ashley Owen Jul 17, 2024

Stock storiesBondsAustralian shares

High Yield Debt case study - Virgin Notes

Last week I wrote about the Virgin Airlines disaster for shareholders. That was only half of the story of Virgin's last shot as a listed public company. Here is the other half of the sorry tale - the fate of the buyers and owners of $325m of Vigrin Notes - on the debt side of the balance sheet. It makes a great case study in high-yield / high-risk debt. Are there any new lessons to be learned? &

Ashley Owen Jun 18, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt

Virgin Airlines round 1: Crash Landing for investors

Virgin Airlines is in the news again. It is being tarted by shifty private equity tricksters hoping to lure another batch of gullible investors into parting with their hard-earned cash - again. Before getting into the merits of Round 2, it’s worth taking a look at what happened in Round 1. (Spoiler alert - Covid did not kill it. It was a dud from the start, and it was killed by bad management expanding too aggressively and running up too much debt.) What are the lessons from the last sorry tale? Has anything changed?

Ashley Owen Jun 11, 2024

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

Australian Shares

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