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Asset Classes, Asset Class Returns

1-27 out of 27 results.

March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInterest ratesInflationAsset classes, asset class returns

  Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors -  Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

Apr 01, 2025

Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?

Investment & Wealth MgmtAustralian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?

Mar 06, 2025 4

What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!

Investment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesBonds

This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start.  Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!) 

Feb 21, 2025 13

Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtReal Estate and PropertyAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian shares Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational shares

How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all

Jan 20, 2025 2

125 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?

Financial MarketsRecessionsAsset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInternational sharesAustralian shares

It's that time of year again - time to review a whole new year of possible threats, risks, and crises that might blow up share markets.  What are the big risks that might spook investors in 2025? How share markets power through even the greatest crises the world has ever faced. 

Jan 14, 2025 2

We're half-way through the 2020s decade! Here's the half-time score check on Aussie shares

Australian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles

The decade half-time score check for the Aussie share market is not that good: Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far (and below other markets eg the US). It has been below average all decade – after a poor start with the 2020 Covid lockdowns. But all is not lost – some past decades also started out slow but ended up with good full decade returns. There is plenty of time left this decade for the next big speculative boom to lift the share market – history is on our side!    

Dec 16, 2024

November 2024 snapshot: Trump, Gold, & Bitcoin!

Financial MarketsAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesCrypto

Here is my essential snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors.  The Trump circus continues - and a new era of crony capitalism. Share market up - heading for another cracking year. Interest rates & inflation - down everywhere but here. Gold & Bitcoin shine - but which is better?

Dec 01, 2024

October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAsset classes, asset class returns

Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets?  Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year?  Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?  

Nov 04, 2024

3/4 time score check: 2024 - Great returns despite constant 'recession' fear mongering

Financial MarketsAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

Here's my 3/4 time score check on asset class returns to September 2024.  Almost all are positive and ahead of inflation.    Most are doing better than their long term average returns.  Which are the best and worst?   How is the end of year shaping up? 

Oct 05, 2024

Another good financial year for lazy investors! How did your returns stack up?

Asset classes, asset class returnsAsset allocation, portfolio construction

Today's chart shows returns from the main asset classes and sectors for Aussie investors for 2022-3 and 2023-4, including returns from a standard, passive 70/30 'growth' portfolio mix. How did your returns stack up? 

Jun 30, 2024 2

May 2024 Snapshot: Inflation, trade wars, but shares stronger. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

Australian shares International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation

May 2024 Snapshot: inflation sticky, trade wars escalate, but shares heading for another good year. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

Jun 02, 2024 1

Active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money - Why?

Managed fundsAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Active fund managers are almost universally useless. Here is my updated report on how much wealth they destroy for Aussie investors. Are they getting any better? Why do we let them take $4.5b from our pockets every year? Where does the money go? How much do they pocket? How much do they just throw away through incompetence?  

May 22, 2024 6

April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?

International sharesBondsAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsInterest ratesInflation

Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast.  'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?

May 02, 2024

Margin Lending boom-bust signal of share market over-confidence - Not flashing red yet

Stock market crashesInternational sharesAsset classes, asset class returns

  I have never used or recommended margin lending, but margin lending volumes are a great barometer of boom-bust cycles. Where are we now in the cycle? Are we near the top of the market?

Apr 28, 2024 2

US Shares vastly over-priced + primed to fall - What will the trigger be?

International sharesAsset classes, asset class returns

The US share market hit new record highs at the end of March but has retreated a little in April. is this enough of a correction? Is the market still expensive? Is it the start of the next big correction? Here is my update on the US 'CAPE' ratio and what it means for returns  

Apr 22, 2024

The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!

Managed fundsInternational sharesExchange Traded FundsBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation

Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well!   But that era of great returns from low inflation is over.  What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?

Apr 16, 2024

March 2024 Snapshot - Shares keep rising despite strong economy + sticky inflation

International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy

March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.

Apr 01, 2024

US Shares: 'double-whammy' of over-pricing, but how serious is it?

International sharesAsset classes, asset class returns

The US share market is soaring, but bullish profit forecasts, plus bullish multiples give us a 'double-whammy' of over-pricing. Current p/e ratios - expensive but extreme yet? Profit outlooks - also bullish, but how stretched are they? Why short and long term interest rates are both relatively low given the inflation task Why pricing is different from timing or triggers

Mar 27, 2024

Feb 2024 Snapshot - early rate cut hopes dashed but shares surge on confidence from US profits

International sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy

He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.

Mar 03, 2024

Share Market Pricing per Country - how do we rate?

International sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returns

The US dominates world markets and is the sole reason why the global share market as a whole appears very expensive. On the other hand, Australia appears much better value – but is it?

Jan 22, 2024

124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?

Stock market crashesWars & military conflictsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsRecessionsRetirement planning

Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?

Jan 17, 2024

Australian Share Market Annual Returns Pyramid

Australian shares Asset classes, asset class returns

2023 was a good year for the Australian share market, but where does it sit in historical terms? The past five years were actually rather boring and ho-hum for the share market – despite a host of extreme events like the Covid lockdowns, steep recessions, inflation spikes, aggressive rate hikes, wars, rising military tensions, bank collapses, etc.

Jan 12, 2024 2

Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again!

Asset classes, asset class returnsAsset allocation, portfolio construction

Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again! In 2023, almost all asset classes posted positive returns, most were above average, and most beat inflation, despite doom & gloom from the so-called ‘experts’.  Here is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly asset classes for 2023.

Jan 09, 2024

Australian share market has gone nowhere for 16 years? Is it ‘broken’? Has it lost its mojo?

Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economyAustralian shares

The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?

Nov 10, 2023 1

Market Monitor - October 2023 wrap-up: Central banks not done yet with rate hikes

Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economyAustralian shares

Welcome to the Monthly Market Monitor for October 2023. First, here is our quick snapshot of Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD since the start of 2020

Nov 02, 2023

Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive

InflationAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive and ahead of inflation.

Oct 20, 2023

Aussie retirement funds have highest ‘growth/defensive’ asset mix in the world. Is this higher risk?

Asset classes, asset class returnsAsset allocation, portfolio construction

What is the best or ideal asset allocation for long term investment funds, including retirement/pension funds?

Sep 08, 2023

"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issuess. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."

Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016),  the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.” 

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

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About Ashley Owen | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Archive | Disclaimer

The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.