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Stay Ahead: Professional-Grade Market Intelligence

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Financial MarketsCurrencyStock market crashes

Is the US dollar in decline? or on its ‘last legs’? Hardly! The problem is the dollar is too strong

The US dollar is hardly in decline or on its last legs. The main problem is that it's too strong - demand exceeds supply. The biggest enemy of US producers and exporters is not China. The chief culprits are Japan, Europe, and UK, as they have trashed their currencies to help their exporters, far more than China has. Trump needs to bring down the dollar, but can he do it without crashing stock markets and sending bond yields higher? What are the implications for Aussie investors?

Ashley Owen Apr 21, 2025 6

Australian shares Australian economyFinancial Markets

Labor -v- Libs: which side has been better for the Aussie share market?

Looking at share market returns under every PM and government since Federation - right-leaning governments win, with significantly higher average returns than left-leaning governments. Left-leaning PMs presided over the worst return periods for the share market, and also the best return periods. However, most of the big differences are due to lucky (or unlucky) timing, and/or delayed causation from prior governments. Our governments on both sides deserve credit for creating favourable conditions for investment.

Ashley Owen Apr 14, 2025

EconomicsAustralian economyRecessionsInterest ratesInflation

Company insolvencies highest in 35 years - and we’re not even in ‘recession’ yet!

Company insolvencies in Australia have soared back to levels not seen since the deep 1990-1 recession. Business is doing it tough - on recession footing already. But the rapidly expanding government sector is doing fine - accounting for almost all of the growth in jobs and economic 'activity' (and artificially suppressing inflation and unemployment numbers), while businesses suffer.

Ashley Owen Apr 09, 2025

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtInterest ratesInflationAsset classes, asset class returns

March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?

Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors - Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

Ashley Owen Apr 01, 2025

EconomicsAustralian economyDebtGovernment – deficits, debt

Labor -v- Libs: which side has a better record on Deficits & Debts? Here are the facts

'Left' governments have run deficits more often than 'Right' governments, and the Left have also run larger deficits on average than the Right. But timing is everything! - the Left happened to be in power during the big deficits and debts in the two World Wars, when spending was bi-partisan. My verdict? - Equal points to Left and Right - but poor scores for both post-GFC. Both sides could have used windfall revenue gains to put our house in order to better prepare for global challenges, rather than increase spending and debt.

Ashley Owen Mar 26, 2025 1

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRecessionsAustralian shares Stock market crashes

‘Buying the dip?’ – ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’? – the Aussie share market experience

Following my story on US market dips, here is the same analysis for the ASX: The Aussie market has had 36 dips of -10% or more since 1920. Buying the dips still resulted in more 'Knives' than 'Bargains', and below average returns overall, but the outcomes were significantly better than buying the dips in the US market. 83% of dips on our market were led by falls on the US market. Of the few dips that were due to local factors alone, most were 'Bargains'. Where are we now? Will I be buying the dip here as the US boom deflates?

Ashley Owen Mar 23, 2025 1

RecessionsInternational sharesStock market crashesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

After the mini-correction, should I ‘Buy the dip?’ - Am I ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’?

The US stock market has had 31 'dips' of -10% or more since 1900. We look at what happened in each case if you 'bought the dip'. In most cases, a 10% dip turned out to be just the start of a much larger fall (further -15% fall on average), and for a much longer period (more than a year of further falls on average). Overall, buying the dip resulted in poor returns over subsequent 1, 3, and 5-year periods, but there were several times when 'buying the dip' led to high returns. Where are we now? How does today's market compare?

Ashley Owen Mar 18, 2025 2

Retirement planningPopulation, demographics, immigrationInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Australia’s aging population - are age pensions, benefits, and tax breaks sustainable in future?

Many retirees live more frugally than necessary, and die with as much Super as they had at retirement. One possible reason may be a rising fear that the current government age pension system is not sustainable and may not be there for life. Despite our aging population, Australia is probably best placed of any country in the world to maintain its government age pension system. Fears of its demise are probably over-done. However, it is probably inevitable that the age pension, and/or the generous tax-breaks and benefits that go with it, will need to be scaled back in future. Future retirees should aim for financial independence, not welfare reliance, to be safe.

Ashley Owen Mar 15, 2025

I need your Help! - Opal Card survey - Black or Gold? Am I an 'Adult' or a 'Senior'?

Being over 60, I am eligible for a Gold Opal card, which means much cheaper transport fares for the rest of my life. It is a non-means-tested financial benefit purely because of my age - I am no longer an 'Adult'. I make the case for both - What should I do?

Ashley Owen Mar 11, 2025 19

Investment & Wealth MgmtAustralian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?

Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?

Ashley Owen Mar 06, 2025 4

February 2025 snapshot: Trump bump turns into slowdown fears – What moved markets and why?

Here's my monthly wrap-up of financial markets for Aussie global investors. Profit reporting season & share price winners & losers. Shares still ahead for the year, bitcoin down, gold up. Progress on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

Ashley Owen Mar 02, 2025

Australian shares Stock market crashesFinancial Markets

ASX down 8 days in a row - Ouch! Do sustained down-runs point to a market correction?

Runs of 8 straight down days are not that uncommon. In fact they occur about 50% more frequently than they statistically should if the market was 'random'. Long runs of down days were much more common in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The market has been much smoother (less susceptible to sustained negative sentiment) in recent decades. Some long down runs were at the start of major corrections, some were in the middle, and some were at the end. But almost all long down runs on the ASX were part of a major market correction.

Ashley Owen Feb 26, 2025

Investment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesBonds

What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!

This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start. Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!)

Ashley Owen Feb 21, 2025 13

Financial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtRetirement planningInflationInternational shares

Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained

The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story. Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING. This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns. The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over. What this means for retirement planning.

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2025

Financial MarketsRetirement planningInflationAustralian shares

Inflation Cycles & the Australian share market - the Big picture

Share market returns vary greatly in different inflation conditions. Returns are consistently lower (and below average) when inflation is rising, and consistently higher (and above average) when inflation is falling. This applies to nominal returns and even more so to 'real' returns after inflation. If the recent era of declining inflation is over, what comes next?

Ashley Owen Feb 10, 2025 2

Australian shares International sharesAsset allocation, portfolio constructionRetirement planning

Australia: Highest dividend yields in the world, so why the endless chase for even higher yields?

Australia has, and has had for decades, the highest dividend yielding share market in the world. This delivers enormous benefits to Aussie investors and retirees by eliminating many of the portfolio planning issues and risks faced in other countries. So why the endless yield chase - where so many people fall victim to high-yield traps and scams?

Ashley Owen Feb 04, 2025 4

EconomicsFinancial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

January 2025 snapshot: Trump’s pro-growth agenda boosts shares + ChatGPT’s effort- which is better?

Here's my monthly wrap-up of financial markets for Australian global investors. What moved markets and why? plus I get ChatGPT to write the same report - let me know which is better! OpenAI founder Sam Altman says ai will replace humans in 868 days time - am I worried?

Ashley Owen Feb 02, 2025 6

International sharesStock storiesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles

How the ‘Magnificent-7’ stack up – 8 key charts

Just 7 companies make up 19% of the combined value of the entire 15,000 companies listed on world share markets, but they produce just 12% of total world profits, and just 3% of world dividends. They are over-priced on just about every measure, but are they worth it? What justified their astronomical pricing? There is a fairly obvious odd-one-out here - which is it? I have been bullish on US/global shares in portfolios - will this change?

Ashley Owen Jan 28, 2025 2

Financial MarketsRecessionsInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesInvestment & Wealth MgmtStock market crashes

Bring on the Trump ‘volatility’! - My Volatility Spike Index separates the calm from the storm

Trump's first term was certainly entertaining, but was it volatile for financial markets? Let's look at facts, not mindless media chatter warning of 'more Trump volatility!', or 'another bumby ride!'. My Volatility Spike Index highlights and compares all volatility spikes since 1970.

Ashley Owen Jan 21, 2025

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsInvestment & Wealth MgmtReal Estate and PropertyAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian shares Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational shares

Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!

How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all

Ashley Owen Jan 20, 2025 2

Financial MarketsRecessionsAsset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInternational sharesAustralian shares

125 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?

It's that time of year again - time to review a whole new year of possible threats, risks, and crises that might blow up share markets. What are the big risks that might spook investors in 2025? How share markets power through even the greatest crises the world has ever faced.

Ashley Owen Jan 14, 2025 2

CurrencyInflationAustralian economy

What drives the Aussie Dollar? -Part 3: the long-term inflation effect. Where is it heading?

Exchange rates are driven ultimately by differences in inflation. Inflation transcends and defeats all attempts to peg, fix, or manage currencies. Why the Aussie dollar has been in long-term decline against the US dollar for more than a century. Why I am bullish that this long-term decline is probably behind us.

Ashley Owen Jan 10, 2025 4

2024-great returns from almost all asset classes despite constant recession fear mongering

Almost all asset classes were up again in 2024. What were the best and worst asset classes and why? What should investors do in 2025?

Ashley Owen Jan 06, 2025 3

Financial MarketsInternational sharesAustralian shares

2024 - another good year for most global share markets - defying predictions of recession & crash

80% of global share markets are up again in 2024 - it's not just US big-tech 'lifting the world'. That's two great years in a row of great returns - can it last another year? What were the best and worst share markets in 2024, and why?

Ashley Owen Dec 30, 2024

Financial MarketsInternational sharesStock market crashesRetirement planning

2020s decade half-time score – US shares: great so far, but expect a decade of pain when boom ends

At the half-way mark for the decade, US shares are doing well above average. The current speculative boom is similar to the 1920s and 1990s - but they were both followed by a decade of NEGATIVE total returns in the 1930s and 2000s when the booms collapsed. Markets don't crash because or when they're expensive. The current boom may run on for years yet.

Ashley Owen Dec 23, 2024 9

EconomicsInflationInterest ratesMoney

Cash rates are already too low to contain inflation - why central bankers are in a pickle

The tremendous 2-year rally in share markets (even after this week's mini-fall) has been based on the assumption of several more rate cuts soon. Even if inflation is back to target (it isn't yet), current cash rates are already too low to contain inflation in Australia, the US, and other markets, Be careful what you wish for - the only reason for rapid rate cuts would be a sharp recession - and nobody wants that!

Ashley Owen Dec 20, 2024

Australian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles

We're half-way through the 2020s decade! Here's the half-time score check on Aussie shares

The decade half-time score check for the Aussie share market is not that good: Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far (and below other markets eg the US). It has been below average all decade – after a poor start with the 2020 Covid lockdowns. But all is not lost – some past decades also started out slow but ended up with good full decade returns. There is plenty of time left this decade for the next big speculative boom to lift the share market – history is on our side!

Ashley Owen Dec 16, 2024

Financial MarketsDebtGovernment – deficits, debtBonds

Who wants to buy US debt? (lend to Uncle Sam?) Most of the world but me! Who’s buying, selling, why?

Just about everyone is rushing in to lend more money to the profligate US government – except China, Russia, Iran (and me). China has dumped $413b of US debt (one third of its peak holdings) since Trump started his trade war in 2018, and accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the UK soaked up all of that and more, increasing its holdings by $515b.

Ashley Owen Dec 13, 2024 5

Commodities & MiningExports, tradeChina

China’s 4-year trade war with Australia is over. It was the wake-up call we needed!

It was a much-needed wake-up call for Aussie exporters to diversify into other markets and reduce their heavy reliance on China. China's share of exports fell from 42% to 32%, taken up by increasing exports to the rest of Asia, and USA. Australia's exports continued to

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2024

Financial MarketsAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesCrypto

November 2024 snapshot: Trump, Gold, & Bitcoin!

Here is my essential snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors. The Trump circus continues - and a new era of crony capitalism. Share market up - heading for another cracking year. Interest rates & inflation - down everywhere but here. Gold & Bitcoin shine - but which is better?

Ashley Owen Dec 01, 2024

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

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