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Cash rates are already too low to contain inflation - why central bankers are in a pickle

The tremendous 2-year rally in share markets (even after this week's mini-fall) has been based on the assumption of several more rate cuts soon. Even if inflation is back to target (it isn't yet), current cash rates are already too low to contain inflation in Australia, the US, and other markets, Be careful what you wish for - the only reason for rapid rate cuts would be a sharp recession - and nobody wants that!

Ashley Owen Dec 20, 2024

Australian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles

We're half-way through the 2020s decade! Here's the half-time score check on Aussie shares

The decade half-time score check for the Aussie share market is not that good: Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far (and below other markets eg the US). It has been below average all decade – after a poor start with the 2020 Covid lockdowns. But all is not lost – some past decades also started out slow but ended up with good full decade returns. There is plenty of time left this decade for the next big speculative boom to lift the share market – history is on our side!

Ashley Owen Dec 16, 2024

Financial MarketsDebtGovernment – deficits, debtBonds

Who wants to buy US debt? (lend to Uncle Sam?) Most of the world but me! Who’s buying, selling, why?

Just about everyone is rushing in to lend more money to the profligate US government – except China, Russia, Iran (and me). China has dumped $413b of US debt (one third of its peak holdings) since Trump started his trade war in 2018, and accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the UK soaked up all of that and more, increasing its holdings by $515b.

Ashley Owen Dec 13, 2024 4

Commodities & MiningExports, tradeChina

China’s 4-year trade war with Australia is over. It was the wake-up call we needed!

It was a much-needed wake-up call for Aussie exporters to diversify into other markets and reduce their heavy reliance on China. China's share of exports fell from 42% to 32%, taken up by increasing exports to the rest of Asia, and USA. Australia's exports continued to

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2024

Financial MarketsAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesCrypto

November 2024 snapshot: Trump, Gold, & Bitcoin!

Here is my essential snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors. The Trump circus continues - and a new era of crony capitalism. Share market up - heading for another cracking year. Interest rates & inflation - down everywhere but here. Gold & Bitcoin shine - but which is better?

Ashley Owen Dec 01, 2024

More Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0: Government Size, Deficits, Debts

Governments have expanded in size everywhere – but not in US or Australia. Budget deficits are worsening almost everywhere. Government debts have ballooned.

Ashley Owen Nov 29, 2024 2

EconomicsSocial & EnvironmentalAustralian economyPopulation, demographics, immigration

Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0 – Part 1: Shape & distribution of Economic Growth

In the 8 years since the start of Trump’s first term, the global economy has changed fundamentally. Part 1 looks at big changes in the shape and distribution of economic growth: There are 600 million more people in the world. That's more than the entire 19th century! Populations are aging everywhere. The global economic pie is US$10 trillion larger.

Ashley Owen Nov 24, 2024

Real Estate and PropertyInflationInternational shares

House prices -v- other Real Assets part 2: Microsoft & US shares

House prices have soared – but that’s mostly just inflation due to continued debasement of paper money. Compared to other 'Real Assets', house prices have fallen in value over time. Case in point: US shares.

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2024

Commodities & MiningReal Estate and PropertyInflationMoney

The house price myth: Sydney house prices -v- other Real assets part 1: Gold

House prices have soared to astronomical levels in recent years, but have they really? No. Only if you measure them in terms of the increasingly worthless paper money that governments are deliberately debasing. Comopared to other Real Assets, house prices have actually fallen in value! For example: gold. &

Nov 13, 2024 2

It’s not just a US boom: 80% of share markets are up in 2024. What drives global booms & busts?

It’s not just about US 'big-tech'. Most other countries are up, and a dozen markets are up even more than the US. Why are booms and busts global? It is time for the next big sell-off?

Ashley Owen Nov 11, 2024 2

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAsset classes, asset class returns

October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls

Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets? Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year? Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?

Ashley Owen Nov 04, 2024

Population, demographics, immigrationInternational sharesSocial & Environmental

Report from the Big Apple on election eve 2024 - to the Barricades!

Having spent the past 18 days travelling around North America, here are my top-10 observations on the election race from New York. What are Americans saying about the election race and the campaigns? Barricades are being erected all over New York City – is it in anticipation of civil unrest following the election?

Ashley Owen Oct 30, 2024

CommoditiesStock storiesESG, renewables, climate change

Woodside case study Part 2: Since 1980 – struggling producer to global giant to fossil fuel pariah!

How Woodside went from cash-strapped explorer to global giant and one of Australia’s biggest export earners. Still a wild ride for investors – as a leveraged bet on commodities prices, plus political risks. Despite huge profits and becoming a top-10 ASX company, still struggles to beat the overall market.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

Commodities & MiningSocial & EnvironmentalCommoditiesStock storiesESG, renewables, climate change

Woodside case study Part 1: 1954 to 1980 – volatile speculative survivor to national hero

Good case study representing the vast majority of ASX listed companies – as a volatile speculative hopeful with no revenues or assets to underpin value. Eventually defied the odds and the elements by actually finding something of enormous value. But it required extreme patience and perseverance – it holds the record for longest wait for first revenue, first profit, and first dividend of any ASX listed co

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

CommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWars & military conflicts

World War II & share markets – Part 2 of 2: Through to the end of the War and aftermath

Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

CommoditiesInternational sharesWars & military conflictsAustralian shares

World War II & share markets – Part 1 of 2: the Outbreak

War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits. It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong. Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

Financial MarketsAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

3/4 time score check: 2024 - Great returns despite constant 'recession' fear mongering

Here's my 3/4 time score check on asset class returns to September 2024. Almost all are positive and ahead of inflation. Most are doing better than their long term average returns. Which are the best and worst? How is the end of year shaping up?

Ashley Owen Oct 05, 2024

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsChinaInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?

Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets

Ashley Owen Oct 01, 2024 4

$1 Million for Life

Want to build wealth that will last you a lifetime? Then $1 Million for Life is the book for you! In this step-by-step guide to financial freedom, investor and best-selling author Ashley Ormond outlines dozens of practical ways to increase your wealth by tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands, of dollars. It doesn’t matter how much you earn -- it’s what you do with the money you have that makes the difference.

Sep 30, 2024

Fast Money - Couquer Your Mortgage

This is an e-book created by the publishers from selected chapters from ‘101 Ways to get out of Debt’. It contains the highlights of the chapters on paying off the mortgage.

Sep 30, 2024

101 Ways To Get Out Of Debt

In the late 2000s, as the 2000s boom collapsed into the US sub-prime crisis and the GFC, many people were asking me “What’s the Next Big Thing?” I had sold companies in the takeover boom prior to the 1987 crash, again in the ‘dot-com’ boom prior to the ‘tech wreck’ crash, and I had been bought and sold a few properties and been debt-free in the 2000s credit boom prior to the GFC.

Sep 30, 2024

How To Give Your Kids $1million Each

As a father of two young kids, I wrote this book to outline my very simple and practical plan for parents to not only build wealth for their kids, but also to help teach them about money - how it works, how to manage it, and how to make it grow.

Sep 30, 2024

Books by Ashley Owen

In addition to publishing my unique analysis and research on OwenAnalytics.com.au, Firstlinks, Morninstar, and numerous other sites and media outlets including national dailies, plus in publications by major institutions (eg RBA), I have also written a few books in my spare time (under the name ‘Ashley Ormond’) for global publisher John Wiley & Sons.

Sep 30, 2024

InflationCommoditiesInterest rates

Gold price pointing to US inflation rising next year - the Fed may not be done yet!

Gold has been the best performing asset class this year, but what is it saying about the outlook for US inflation? It is pointing to rising US inflation in the year ahead, so the Fed may not be done yet with rate hikes. This would be bearish for US and global share and bond markets. How does this sit with fears of recession in the US? Why I'm still bullish on US shares and gold - for now.

Ashley Owen Sep 23, 2024

InflationInterest ratesInternational sharesRecessions

Let the US rate cuts begin! Usually good for shares, but it will NOT be plain sailing!

In rate cut cycles, shares have usually posted higher returns, but also higher volatility The big issue is inflation - has it been solved or will it revive like in past cycles? With monetary policy now being eased, can we rely on Trump or Harris for fiscal restraint to contain inflation?

Ashley Owen Sep 18, 2024

EconomicsFinancial MarketsAustralian economyInflationInterest rates

5 Reasons the RBA is not cutting rates like the rest of the world - Why I'd rather NOT see rate cuts

Several other countries are into their second rate cut already - why hasn't the RBA cut rates yet? Here are 5 fact-based reasons When will we get rate cuts here? Why I am NOT looking foward to rate cuts!

Ashley Owen Sep 14, 2024

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesExports, tradeAustralian shares China

Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?

The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle? Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term. How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.

Ashley Owen Sep 05, 2024 1

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

August 2024 snapshot: Shares hold up - still waiting for US rate cut(s)

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets and why? Who were the winners and losers in global and local share markets?

Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2024

Australian shares Stock stories

Transurban – end of the gravy train for monopoly toll road powerhouse?

Transurban (TCL) was one of Australia’s great corporate success stories – until it was hit by a triple-whammy of Covid lockdowns, inflation, and public/political backlashes. Do the new CEO and chairperson have the political cunning and connections to revive Transurban’s once-golden yellow brick road? Here's my take on Transurban for long term investors.

Ashley Owen Aug 27, 2024

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWealth, Inequality

Australia: Most listed stocks per capita, and biggest gamblers in the world - Is there a link?

Australia has more listed companies per head of population than just about any other country on earth – and many times more than the US. Why? Is it because we have many times more viable business opportunities to pursue? Or is it because we have the wiliest stock promoters and spruikers, and we are the biggest gamblers in the world? Actually it is both!

Ashley Owen Aug 22, 2024

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

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