Tuesday, September 10, 2024

1-30 out of 93 results.
Commodities & MiningCommoditiesExports, tradeAustralian shares
Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?

The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle?  Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term.   How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.  

Ashley Owen Sep 05, 2024 1
Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares
August 2024 snapshot: Shares hold up - still waiting for US rate cut(s)

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets and why? Who were the winners and losers in global and local share markets? Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2024

Australian shares Stock stories
Transurban – end of the gravy train for monopoly toll road powerhouse?

Transurban (TCL) was one of Australia’s great corporate success stories – until it was hit by a triple-whammy of Covid lockdowns, inflation, and public/political backlashes. Do the new CEO and chairperson have the political cunning and connections to revive Transurban’s once-golden yellow brick road?   Here's my take on Transurban for long term investors. 

Ashley Owen Aug 27, 2024
Commodities & MiningCommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWealth, Inequality
Australia: Most listed stocks per capita, and biggest gamblers in the world - Is there a link?

Australia has more listed companies per head of population than just about any other country on earth – and many times more than the US. Why? Is it because we have many times more viable business opportunities to pursue? Or is it because we have the wiliest stock promoters and spruikers, and we are the biggest gamblers in the world? Actually it is both!

Ashley Owen Aug 22, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyCurrencyAustralian economy
Australia’s big banks: Origin of the Species, or ‘Survival of the Fattest!’

Ever wondered where our big dinosaur banks came from, and how they got so big? And why they are all virtually the same? How Australia became the richest country in the world per capita - without a central bank, without a national currency, and without bank regulation?   How the dozens of small, independent, competitive banks became the big-4 government protected oligopoly we have today?

Ashley Owen Aug 15, 2024 2
Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationSocial & Environmental
Paris Olympics – who were the real winners adjusted for population and wealth?

It was Australia's best ever medal haul based on a simple medal count. But who were the real winners when we adjust for the vast differences in  population and wealth in each country? How do we really rate against our rivals and peers?

Ashley Owen Aug 12, 2024 2
Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian shares Financial Markets
‘Worst’ days on the ASX? (" . . . THAT’s a knife!”)

After my story on Monday pointing out that the -3.8% fall on the ASX was relatively minor and there have been dozens of worse days on the ASX - many people asked me what those 'big' down days  were, so here they are. What were the really bad days on the Australian share market? What caused them? How do they compare to the worst days on Wall Street? Are share markets really 'random' like finance theory claims?  

Ashley Owen Aug 08, 2024
BIG days on Australian share market – but how bad was it?

Today was the worst day on the local Australian share market for 4 years. But how bad was it really? What should investors do about it? Is it time to panic sell? How markets are not random like finance textbooks suggest How these are the times that make or break investors  

Ashley Owen Aug 05, 2024
July 2024 snapshot – shares rise on stabilising inflation

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets in July - and why? Who were the winners and losers in Aussie and global share markets? Has inflation finally been tamed?  Bond markets finally in positive territory - but why I still don't like them?    

Ashley Owen Aug 01, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares Asset allocation, portfolio constructionRetirement planning
CBA in 7 charts – the ‘Steven Bradbury’ of Australian banking – now suddenly a ‘growth stock’?

I am neither a buyer nor a seller - so why does it matter? Why CBA is the 'Steven Bradbury' of the banking world? Its share price is soaring but its fundamentals stalled a decade ago. What sort of returns can we expect in future? Here's my quick take in 7 charts.

Ashley Owen Jul 29, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyAustralian economyFinancial Markets
Labor’s attempt to nationalise all banks in Australia!

Australians have always had a love-hate relationship with their banks. (OK, so it’s mostly hate). But it was not always the case. Believe it or not, there was a time when the Australian public loved their banks so much they kicked out a Federal government that was trying to close the banks down! Here is the remarkable story of Banks -v- Politics, Capitalism -v- Socialism right here in Australia.

Ashley Owen Jul 21, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyFinancial Markets
Which Bank? . . is winning the Battle of the Banks?

Quick 2-question Quiz on Aussie Banks -  Q1 - Which of the big Aussie banks has had the largest % share price gain this year?  - No it's not CBA, despite all the media attention and hype.    Q2 - Which of the big banks has been the best for shareholders over the past one, two, and three decades?    - No its not CBA either, despite the widely held belief that it is!

Ashley Owen Jul 17, 2024
Government – deficits, debtEconomicsFinancial Markets
Trump -v- Biden: Economic Report Card on their first terms – how did they rate?

Putting aside personalities, politics, and hair products, what are the facts? What were the actual economic outcomes in each of their first terms? How do they rate on seven key outcomes for investors?

Ashley Owen Jul 11, 2024
Retirement planningAsset allocation, portfolio constructionExchange Traded Funds
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ – Part 2: What’s in it?

Here is my '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio. out of the 348 ETFs on the ASX, which 30 are in the 'squad'? which 9 am I using right now? why it's actually not about the ETFs - it's about the game plan.

Ashley Owen Jul 07, 2024 6
Retirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt
Podcast with James Kirby – ‘How much should you have in Super – Seriously!’

Yesterday I had the great privilege and pleasure of being interviewed by James Kirby for his popular weekly podcast: ‘The Money Puzzle’ for The Australian. Here we tackle some of the most common questions from investors -  How much do you need? Why you can't rely on online retirement calculators? How to estimate how long you might live? Why 2/3 of retirees still rely on the government age pension after 30+ years of compulsory Super?

Ashley Owen Jul 05, 2024
Wars & military conflictsExports, tradeChinaAustralian economyCommodities
Geopolitics case study - China: largest export customer + potential military threat - a problem?

Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate.  Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!

Ashley Owen Jul 03, 2024
Asset classes, asset class returnsAsset allocation, portfolio construction
Another good financial year for lazy investors! How did your returns stack up?

Today's chart shows returns from the main asset classes and sectors for Aussie investors for 2022-3 and 2023-4, including returns from a standard, passive 70/30 'growth' portfolio mix. How did your returns stack up? 

Ashley Owen Jun 30, 2024
Exports, tradeAustralian economyAgricultureCommodities & Mining
RBA Deputy Governor opens speech with my chart!

A bit chuffed this week. RBA Dep Gov opened his keynote speech at a major economic forum - with one of my charts. What does he see as Australia's three main sources of wealth and prosperity (and why they matter in future)? How does he see monetary policy being managed in future? What are his observations on Australia - as a 'Stranger in Paradise'?

Ashley Owen Jun 28, 2024 2
Exchange Traded FundsAsset allocation, portfolio constructionRetirement planning
My '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio - Intro

This is my '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio. It's a simple, low-maintenance, low-cost, long-term diversified ETF-based portfolio that I use for my own long-term money, and as a template for discretionary portfolios for thousands of investors over the past 2 decades. It's simple, effective, and it works. 

Ashley Owen Jun 25, 2024 12
Stock storiesBondsAustralian shares
High Yield Debt case study - Virgin Notes

Last week I wrote about the Virgin Airlines disaster for shareholders. That was only half of the story of Virgin's last shot as a listed public company. Here is the other half of the sorry tale - the fate of the buyers and owners of $325m of Vigrin Notes - on the debt side of the balance sheet. It makes a great case study in high-yield / high-risk debt. Are there any new lessons to be learned?  &

Ashley Owen Jun 18, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt
Virgin Airlines round 1: Crash Landing for investors

Virgin Airlines is in the news again. It is being tarted by shifty private equity trickers hoping to lure another batch of gullible investors into parting with their hard-earned cash - again. Before getting into the merits of Round 2, it’s worth taking a look at what happened in Round 1.  What are the lessons from the last sorry tale? Has anything changed?

Ashley Owen Jun 11, 2024
How to not run out of money in retirement - 4 big problems with life expectancy tables

We gotta talk about the ‘D’ word. Our ‘Demise’. (Ok, let’s face it – ‘Death’). Where are you and your family on the Survival Probability Curve? What are the prospects of you living to 100 or beyond? How will you finance it?

Ashley Owen Jun 06, 2024
Australian shares International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation
May 2024 Snapshot: Inflation, trade wars, but shares stronger. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

May 2024 Snapshot: inflation sticky, trade wars escalate, but shares heading for another good year. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

Ashley Owen Jun 02, 2024
Managed fundsAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returnsInvestment & Wealth Mgmt
Active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money - Why?

Active fund managers are almost universally useless. Here is my updated report on how much wealth they destroy for Aussie investors. Are they getting any better? Why do we let them take $4.5b from our pockets every year? Where does the money go? How much do they pocket? How much do they just throw away through incompetence?  

Ashley Owen May 22, 2024 4
MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt
‘What’s your Number? Part 2: 17 key factors driving ‘How much do I need’ & ‘How much can I spend?'

Here are 17 key drivers that determine 'How much do I need to retire', and 'How much can I afford to spend?' How do they work, and how do they apply to you? This handy guide will help you come up with your own Number that suits your needs and goals.

Ashley Owen May 14, 2024
MoneyRetirement planningInvestment & Wealth Mgmt
What's your Number? Part 1: 'How much do I need to retire?', 'How much can I afford to spend?'

Here we tackle these difficult questions, and similar questions like: 'When can I afford to retire?' 'Will my money last as long as I do?   Here are the two key Numbers to tackle these questions.  Plus two quick tests to help measure progress toward your goal.

Ashley Owen May 10, 2024
BondsGovernment – deficits, debtAustralian economyEconomicsChina
The Debt Olympics - How do we rate?

Australia and Australians loaded up on debt in the GFC and again in Covid, but how do we stack up against other countries? How do we rate on: Government debt? Corporate debt? Household debt?   Is debt good or bad? When does it become a problem? The answers are probably very different to what you may have thought.

Ashley Owen May 07, 2024
International sharesBondsAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsInterest ratesInflation
April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?

Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast.  'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?

Ashley Owen May 02, 2024
Stock market crashesInternational sharesAsset classes, asset class returns
Margin Lending boom-bust signal of share market over-confidence - Not flashing red yet

  I have never used or recommended margin lending, but margin lending volumes are a great barometer of boom-bust cycles. Where are we now in the cycle? Are we near the top of the market?

Ashley Owen Apr 28, 2024
International sharesAsset classes, asset class returns
US Shares vastly over-priced + primed to fall - What will the trigger be?

The US share market hit new record highs at the end of March but has retreated a little in April. is this enough of a correction? Is the market still expensive? Is it the start of the next big correction? Here is my update on the US 'CAPE' ratio and what it means for returns  

Ashley Owen Apr 22, 2024

 

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

 

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more