Saturday, July 26, 2025

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1-11 out of 11 results.

Chinese steel production – the ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge’ Index’ – how is it holding up?

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesChinaExports, trade

China builds another Sydney Harbour Bridge worth of steel every 10 minutes! (with iron ore and coal mainly imported from Australia). China’s steel production has been the largest single factor that has driven Australia’s economic growth, prosperity, living standards, tax revenues, share market returns, and even house pieces, so far this century. But with China’s property / construction market collapsed, its economic growth virtually stagnant, and population now declining, has this slowed China’s steel production? - and Australia’s economic growth engine? My ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge Index’ is a simple way of keeping track of this key activity. It measures the number of ‘Sydney Harbour Bridges’ worth of steel China producers per hour. Where are we now? The growth era is behind us, but steel production is holding up remarkably well

Jul 24, 2025 2

RBA Dep Gov opens keynote speech on trade war impacts on Australia with another of my charts!

Commodities & MiningEconomicsAustralian economyChinaExports, trade

On 22 May, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gave a keynote address outlining his observations from his trip to China in the middle of April, days after Trump launched his 'Liberation Day' tariff war on the world, aimed primarily at China.  As China is by far our largest export buyer, it is our largest source of export and tax revenues, and has been the largest single source of wealth and prosperity for Australians so far this century, he was keen to assess first-hand the likely flow-on effects of the trade war on the Australian economy, and the RBA's monetary policy thinking. The Dep Gov needed a killer chart to open his address, and I am once again incredibly honoured that he contacted me for permission to use another of my charts!

May 24, 2025 2

China’s 4-year trade war with Australia is over. It was the wake-up call we needed!

Commodities & MiningExports, tradeChina

It was a much-needed wake-up call for Aussie exporters to diversify into other markets and reduce their heavy reliance on China.    China's share of exports fell from 42% to 32%, taken up by increasing exports to the rest of Asia, and USA. Australia's exports continued  to

Dec 08, 2024

September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsChinaInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets

Oct 01, 2024 4

Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?

Commodities & MiningCommoditiesExports, tradeAustralian shares China

The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle?  Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term.   How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.  

Sep 05, 2024 1

Geopolitics case study - China: largest export customer + potential military threat - a problem?

Wars & military conflictsExports, tradeChinaAustralian economyCommodities

Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate.  Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!

Jul 03, 2024

The Debt Olympics - How do we rate?

BondsGovernment – deficits, debtAustralian economyEconomicsChina

Australia and Australians loaded up on debt in the GFC and again in Covid, but how do we stack up against other countries? How do we rate on: Government debt? Corporate debt? Household debt?   Is debt good or bad? When does it become a problem? The answers are probably very different to what you may have thought.

May 07, 2024

Chinese Steel Production - the Sydney Harbour Bridge Index

Exports, tradeChinaCommoditiesCommodities & Mining

China builds another 'Sydney Harbour Bridge' worth of steel every 10 minutes!    That's 26,000 Harbour Bridges per year - with our rocks.       China's steel production has been single biggest driver of Australia's prosperity this century.      But with China's construction market collapsing and economy stagnating, how will that affect us?  ·       

Mar 25, 2024

What drives the Aussie dollar Part 2: Commodities prices

CurrencyCommoditiesChina

This is the second in a series of articles looking at the four main drivers of the Aussie dollar

Dec 13, 2023

Australia’s bounty: 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot

CommoditiesEconomicsAustralian economyExports, tradeAgricultureCommodities & MiningChina

Commodities matter! More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners (the vast majority are explorers with little more than a map, a compass, and high hopes, but a small number of miners do actually produce something).

Nov 15, 2023

China builds another ‘Sydney CBD’ every 3 days – with our rocks!

Australian economyCommodities & MiningChinaExports, trade

Property construction has been the largest component of China’s incredible economic growth this century, and also the largest contributor to Australia’s export revenues, government tax receipts, corporate profits, and national wealth.

Sep 15, 2023

"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issuess. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."

Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016),  the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.” 

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

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The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.