Saturday, July 26, 2025
Chinese steel production – the ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge’ Index’ – how is it holding up?
China builds another Sydney Harbour Bridge worth of steel every 10 minutes! (with iron ore and coal mainly imported from Australia). China’s steel production has been the largest single factor that has driven Australia’s economic growth, prosperity, living standards, tax revenues, share market returns, and even house pieces, so far this century. But with China’s property / construction market collapsed, its economic growth virtually stagnant, and population now declining, has this slowed China’s steel production? - and Australia’s economic growth engine? My ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge Index’ is a simple way of keeping track of this key activity. It measures the number of ‘Sydney Harbour Bridges’ worth of steel China producers per hour. Where are we now? The growth era is behind us, but steel production is holding up remarkably well
RBA Dep Gov opens keynote speech on trade war impacts on Australia with another of my charts!
On 22 May, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gave a keynote address outlining his observations from his trip to China in the middle of April, days after Trump launched his 'Liberation Day' tariff war on the world, aimed primarily at China. As China is by far our largest export buyer, it is our largest source of export and tax revenues, and has been the largest single source of wealth and prosperity for Australians so far this century, he was keen to assess first-hand the likely flow-on effects of the trade war on the Australian economy, and the RBA's monetary policy thinking. The Dep Gov needed a killer chart to open his address, and I am once again incredibly honoured that he contacted me for permission to use another of my charts!
China’s 4-year trade war with Australia is over. It was the wake-up call we needed!
It was a much-needed wake-up call for Aussie exporters to diversify into other markets and reduce their heavy reliance on China. China's share of exports fell from 42% to 32%, taken up by increasing exports to the rest of Asia, and USA. Australia's exports continued to
September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?
Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets
Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?
The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle? Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term. How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.
Geopolitics case study - China: largest export customer + potential military threat - a problem?
Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate. Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!
The Debt Olympics - How do we rate?
Australia and Australians loaded up on debt in the GFC and again in Covid, but how do we stack up against other countries? How do we rate on: Government debt? Corporate debt? Household debt? Is debt good or bad? When does it become a problem? The answers are probably very different to what you may have thought.
Chinese Steel Production - the Sydney Harbour Bridge Index
China builds another 'Sydney Harbour Bridge' worth of steel every 10 minutes! That's 26,000 Harbour Bridges per year - with our rocks. China's steel production has been single biggest driver of Australia's prosperity this century. But with China's construction market collapsing and economy stagnating, how will that affect us? ·
What drives the Aussie dollar Part 2: Commodities prices
This is the second in a series of articles looking at the four main drivers of the Aussie dollar
Australia’s bounty: 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot
Commodities matter! More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners (the vast majority are explorers with little more than a map, a compass, and high hopes, but a small number of miners do actually produce something).
China builds another ‘Sydney CBD’ every 3 days – with our rocks!
Property construction has been the largest component of China’s incredible economic growth this century, and also the largest contributor to Australia’s export revenues, government tax receipts, corporate profits, and national wealth.
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