Tuesday, January 21, 2025

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Interest Rates

1-13 out of 13 results.
EconomicsInflationInterest ratesMoney
Cash rates are already too low to contain inflation - why central bankers are in a pickle

The tremendous 2-year rally in share markets (even after this week's mini-fall) has been based on the assumption of several more rate cuts soon. Even if inflation is back to target (it isn't yet), current cash rates are already too low to contain inflation in Australia, the US, and other markets, Be careful what you wish for - the only reason for rapid rate cuts would be a sharp recession - and nobody wants that!

Ashley Owen Dec 20, 2024
Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAsset classes, asset class returns
October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls

Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets?  Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year?  Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?  

Ashley Owen Nov 04, 2024
Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsChinaInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares
September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?

Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets

Ashley Owen Oct 01, 2024 4
InflationCommoditiesInterest rates
Gold price pointing to US inflation rising next year - the Fed may not be done yet!

Gold has been the best performing asset class this year, but what is it saying about the outlook for US inflation?   It is pointing to rising US inflation in the year ahead, so the Fed may not be done yet with rate hikes. This would be bearish for US and global share and bond markets.   How does this sit with fears of recession in the US? Why I'm still bullish on US shares and gold - for now.

Ashley Owen Sep 23, 2024
InflationInterest ratesInternational sharesRecessions
Let the US rate cuts begin! Usually good for shares, but it will NOT be plain sailing!

In rate cut cycles, shares have usually posted higher returns, but also higher volatility The big issue is inflation - has it been solved or will it revive like in past cycles? With monetary policy now being eased, can we rely on Trump or Harris for fiscal restraint to contain inflation?

Ashley Owen Sep 18, 2024
EconomicsFinancial MarketsAustralian economyInflationInterest rates
5 Reasons the RBA is not cutting rates like the rest of the world - Why I'd rather NOT see rate cuts

Several other countries are into their second rate cut already - why hasn't the RBA cut rates yet? Here are 5 fact-based reasons When will we get rate cuts here? Why I am NOT looking foward to rate cuts!

Ashley Owen Sep 14, 2024
Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares
August 2024 snapshot: Shares hold up - still waiting for US rate cut(s)

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets and why? Who were the winners and losers in global and local share markets?

Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2024
International sharesBondsAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsInterest ratesInflation
April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?

Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast.  'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?

Ashley Owen May 02, 2024
RecessionsAustralian economyInterest rates
Company insolvencies up 100%! - 3 reasons not to panic

Yes, company failures are up 100% - but here are three reasons not to panic Insolvency rates tell us about the Business Cycle - Where are we now? Where to next? Which industries are under most pressure? Why the next recession will see fewer company failures than past recessions Why I'm bullish on Aussie companies as a whole, recession or not

Ashley Owen Mar 21, 2024
CryptoInternational sharesAustralian shares Interest ratesInflationAustralian economy
January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls.  Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.

Ashley Owen Feb 05, 2024 2
Australian economyInterest ratesInflationCurrency
What drives the Aussie dollar? – Part 1: Interest Rate Differentials

Every day (in fact every minute of every day and night) the value of the Aussie dollar jumps around, seemingly at random.

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2023
Interest ratesAustralian economyEconomicsInflation
Australia-v-rest of the world on Inflation & Interest rates. RBA is lagging and has more work to do

Today (25 October 2023) the latest inflation figures for Australia were released (for the September quarter). The news was mixed – quarterly inflation rose from 0.8% to 1.2%, but the annual rate (rolling 12 months) fell from 6.1% to 5.4%. Meanwhile the cash rate has been sitting at 4.1% since June, after twelve rate hikes.

Ashley Owen Oct 25, 2023
RecessionsInflationInterest rates
Last time we had an inflation-busting rate-hike Recession – shares surged! This time is Different –

Nothing scares investors more than news of a ‘recession!’ But why? Recessions have mostly been good for Australian shares! That’s right. Contrary to the popular myth that recessions are bad for share markets, in the vast majority of economic ‘recessions’ in Australia over the past 150 years, the local share market has actually risen!

Ashley Owen Aug 28, 2023

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The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.