Saturday, July 26, 2025
June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors
Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.
US Government has previously defaulted on Treasuries. They are not entirely risk-free!
As the US government teeters toward yet another debt crisis, it is useful to remember that US government defaulting on Treasures is not new. The US failed to pay maturing treasury bills three times in 1979 when Congress didn't legislate to raise the debt ceiling in time. The creditors sued for unpaid interest but were denied by the Courts. These were 'temporary' defaults and were rectified quickly (the principal, not the interest), but they shocked people who had believed the US government would always pay its debts. The default crisis was a final nail in the coffin for Jimmy Carter and Keynesianism, paving the way for the 1980s boom under Reagan with the revival of free market capitalism. Are we at another turning point now? Today, the US deficit and debt load are more than THREE TIMES WORSE (relative to GDP) than in 1979.&
May 2025 snapshot: Shares rebound + the latest on inflation, rate cuts, and the TACO trade
Share markets surge back in May after three negative months under Trump. My base case scenario - 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out) is on track. (I didn't come up with that name - I wish I had!) Moody's strips the US government of its Aaa credit rating and shares surged, just like they did after the S&P downgrade in 2011. Labor wins 'landslide' election in Australia (how 34% of the primary vote is a landslide is a mystery to me) - so it's all systems go for even more government spending and 'tax-the-rich!'
My latest webinar for IFPA- Elections, inflation, rate cuts, shares, Trump: is there a grand plan?
Here's my latest webinar for the IFPA's Investment Insight series from 9 May 2025. It's a rollicking romp through some critical issues facing long-term investors in these exciting times. Topics include - elections - productivity - inflation - rate cuts - share market action & valuation levels - and the dreaded 'T' word! Is there a grand plan behind Trump's frenzy of policies?
Slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Association seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney
Here are the slides from my session at the Australian Shareholders' Accociation seminar on 7 May 2025, Sydney. Highlights: 4 things about the future we can predict with certainty. 4 things about the future we can be reasonably certain about. Plus we cover - human nature - investor behaviour - bubbles & busts - inflation - longevity - what's behind Trump's agenda, and will it work?
April 2025 snapshot- Share markets ended around flat in April - did I miss anything?
Big moves in share and bond markets with Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs, then their sudden deferral a week later. More rebounds, or more falls ahead? Big moves also in currency markets - Trump talking down the dollar is working. Will Trump's tariffs bring inflation or recession, or both? Why tariff-induced price rises are not necessarily 'inflation'. US GDP contraction + updates on commodities, gold, bitcoin, inflation, interest rates, credit.
Company insolvencies highest in 35 years - and we’re not even in ‘recession’ yet!
Company insolvencies in Australia have soared back to levels not seen since the deep 1990-1 recession. Business is doing it tough - on recession footing already. But the rapidly expanding government sector is doing fine - accounting for almost all of the growth in jobs and economic 'activity' (and artificially suppressing inflation and unemployment numbers), while businesses suffer.
March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?
Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors - Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.
Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained
The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story. Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING. This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns. The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over. What this means for retirement planning.
Inflation Cycles & the Australian share market - the Big picture
Share market returns vary greatly in different inflation conditions. Returns are consistently lower (and below average) when inflation is rising, and consistently higher (and above average) when inflation is falling. This applies to nominal returns and even more so to 'real' returns after inflation. If the recent era of declining inflation is over, what comes next?
January 2025 snapshot: Trump’s pro-growth agenda boosts shares + ChatGPT’s effort- which is better?
Here's my monthly wrap-up of financial markets for Australian global investors. What moved markets and why? plus I get ChatGPT to write the same report - let me know which is better! OpenAI founder Sam Altman says ai will replace humans in 868 days time - am I worried?
What drives the Aussie Dollar? -Part 3: the long-term inflation effect. Where is it heading?
Exchange rates are driven ultimately by differences in inflation. Inflation transcends and defeats all attempts to peg, fix, or manage currencies. Why the Aussie dollar has been in long-term decline against the US dollar for more than a century. Why I am bullish that this long-term decline is probably behind us.
Cash rates are already too low to contain inflation - why central bankers are in a pickle
The tremendous 2-year rally in share markets (even after this week's mini-fall) has been based on the assumption of several more rate cuts soon. Even if inflation is back to target (it isn't yet), current cash rates are already too low to contain inflation in Australia, the US, and other markets, Be careful what you wish for - the only reason for rapid rate cuts would be a sharp recession - and nobody wants that!
House prices -v- other Real Assets part 2: Microsoft & US shares
House prices have soared – but that’s mostly just inflation due to continued debasement of paper money. Compared to other 'Real Assets', house prices have fallen in value over time. Case in point: US shares.
The house price myth: Sydney house prices -v- other Real assets part 1: Gold
House prices have soared to astronomical levels in recent years, but have they really? No. Only if you measure them in terms of the increasingly worthless paper money that governments are deliberately debasing. Comopared to other Real Assets, house prices have actually fallen in value! For example: gold. &
October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls
Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets? Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year? Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?
September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?
Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets
Gold price pointing to US inflation rising next year - the Fed may not be done yet!
Gold has been the best performing asset class this year, but what is it saying about the outlook for US inflation? It is pointing to rising US inflation in the year ahead, so the Fed may not be done yet with rate hikes. This would be bearish for US and global share and bond markets. How does this sit with fears of recession in the US? Why I'm still bullish on US shares and gold - for now.
Let the US rate cuts begin! Usually good for shares, but it will NOT be plain sailing!
In rate cut cycles, shares have usually posted higher returns, but also higher volatility The big issue is inflation - has it been solved or will it revive like in past cycles? With monetary policy now being eased, can we rely on Trump or Harris for fiscal restraint to contain inflation?
5 Reasons the RBA is not cutting rates like the rest of the world - Why I'd rather NOT see rate cuts
Several other countries are into their second rate cut already - why hasn't the RBA cut rates yet? Here are 5 fact-based reasons When will we get rate cuts here? Why I am NOT looking foward to rate cuts!
August 2024 snapshot: Shares hold up - still waiting for US rate cut(s)
My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets and why? Who were the winners and losers in global and local share markets?
May 2024 Snapshot: Inflation, trade wars, but shares stronger. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?
May 2024 Snapshot: inflation sticky, trade wars escalate, but shares heading for another good year. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?
April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?
Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast. 'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?
The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!
Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well! But that era of great returns from low inflation is over. What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?
Gold: Curious case of the '31-year itch'?
Gold is hitting new highs lately, so everyone is looking to jump in. It's time to step back for a moment and look at the big picture: Gold goes through regular 31-year cycles - so where are we now in the cycle? Why gold is a lousy inflation hedge most of the time. Is it cheap or expensive? When it is 'good value'?
Residential Landlords v Tenants: Australia is 'Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell'
Australia has the fastest rising residential property prices and rents in the world, making it Residential ‘Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell’. The tide will turn one day, but when?
Dr Don Stammer's 60 years of investing
In Dr Don Stammer's speech this week, capping off his 60 year career, he only used 2 charts. Both were mine!
Australia's 'Misery Index': Inflation + Unemployment
Australia's Misery Index: Unemployment + Inflation. Where are we now?
January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls
January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls. Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.
What drives the Aussie dollar? – Part 1: Interest Rate Differentials
Every day (in fact every minute of every day and night) the value of the Aussie dollar jumps around, seemingly at random.
"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issuess. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."
Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).
“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”
"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”
Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”
Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”
Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.