Category: Inflation

1-25 out of 25 results.

Cash rates are already too low to contain inflation - why central bankers are in a pickle

The tremendous 2-year rally in share markets (even after this week's mini-fall) has been based on the assumption of several more rate cuts soon. Even if inflation is back to target (it isn't yet), current cash rates are already too low to contain inflation in Australia, the US, and other markets, Be careful what you wish for - the only reason for rapid rate cuts would be a sharp recession - and nobody wants that!

Ashley Owen Dec 20, 2024

Real Estate and PropertyInflationInternational shares

House prices -v- other Real Assets part 2: Microsoft & US shares

House prices have soared – but that’s mostly just inflation due to continued debasement of paper money. Compared to other 'Real Assets', house prices have fallen in value over time. Case in point: US shares.

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2024

Commodities & MiningReal Estate and PropertyInflationMoney

The house price myth: Sydney house prices -v- other Real assets part 1: Gold

House prices have soared to astronomical levels in recent years, but have they really? No. Only if you measure them in terms of the increasingly worthless paper money that governments are deliberately debasing. Comopared to other Real Assets, house prices have actually fallen in value! For example: gold. &

Nov 13, 2024 2

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAsset classes, asset class returns

October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls

Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets? Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year? Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?

Ashley Owen Nov 04, 2024

Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsChinaInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?

Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets

Ashley Owen Oct 01, 2024 4

InflationCommoditiesInterest rates

Gold price pointing to US inflation rising next year - the Fed may not be done yet!

Gold has been the best performing asset class this year, but what is it saying about the outlook for US inflation? It is pointing to rising US inflation in the year ahead, so the Fed may not be done yet with rate hikes. This would be bearish for US and global share and bond markets. How does this sit with fears of recession in the US? Why I'm still bullish on US shares and gold - for now.

Ashley Owen Sep 23, 2024

InflationInterest ratesInternational sharesRecessions

Let the US rate cuts begin! Usually good for shares, but it will NOT be plain sailing!

In rate cut cycles, shares have usually posted higher returns, but also higher volatility The big issue is inflation - has it been solved or will it revive like in past cycles? With monetary policy now being eased, can we rely on Trump or Harris for fiscal restraint to contain inflation?

Ashley Owen Sep 18, 2024

EconomicsFinancial MarketsAustralian economyInflationInterest rates

5 Reasons the RBA is not cutting rates like the rest of the world - Why I'd rather NOT see rate cuts

Several other countries are into their second rate cut already - why hasn't the RBA cut rates yet? Here are 5 fact-based reasons When will we get rate cuts here? Why I am NOT looking foward to rate cuts!

Ashley Owen Sep 14, 2024

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares

August 2024 snapshot: Shares hold up - still waiting for US rate cut(s)

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets and why? Who were the winners and losers in global and local share markets?

Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2024

Australian shares International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation

May 2024 Snapshot: Inflation, trade wars, but shares stronger. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

May 2024 Snapshot: inflation sticky, trade wars escalate, but shares heading for another good year. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?

Ashley Owen Jun 02, 2024

International sharesBondsAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsInterest ratesInflation

April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?

Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast. 'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?

Ashley Owen May 02, 2024

Managed fundsInternational sharesExchange Traded FundsBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsInflation

The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!

Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well! But that era of great returns from low inflation is over. What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?

Ashley Owen Apr 16, 2024

MoneyInflationCommodities

Gold: Curious case of the '31-year itch'?

Gold is hitting new highs lately, so everyone is looking to jump in. It's time to step back for a moment and look at the big picture: Gold goes through regular 31-year cycles - so where are we now in the cycle? Why gold is a lousy inflation hedge most of the time. Is it cheap or expensive? When it is 'good value'?

Ashley Owen Mar 15, 2024 2

Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationInflationSocial & EnvironmentalReal Estate and Property

Residential Landlords v Tenants: Australia is 'Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell'

Australia has the fastest rising residential property prices and rents in the world, making it Residential ‘Landlord Heaven, Tenant Hell’. The tide will turn one day, but when?

Ashley Owen Feb 28, 2024

InflationAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt

Dr Don Stammer's 60 years of investing

In Dr Don Stammer's speech this week, capping off his 60 year career, he only used 2 charts. Both were mine!

Ashley Owen Feb 22, 2024

RecessionsInflationAustralian economySocial & EnvironmentalEconomics

Australia's 'Misery Index': Inflation + Unemployment

Australia's Misery Index: Unemployment + Inflation. Where are we now?

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2024

CryptoInternational sharesAustralian shares Interest ratesInflationAustralian economy

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls. Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.

Ashley Owen Feb 05, 2024 2

Australian economyInterest ratesInflationCurrency

What drives the Aussie dollar? – Part 1: Interest Rate Differentials

Every day (in fact every minute of every day and night) the value of the Aussie dollar jumps around, seemingly at random.

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2023

InflationAustralian economyEconomicsAsset allocation, portfolio construction

Inflation is not the same for all. What is your own personal inflation rate? And why it matters when

The official inflation figures measure price inflation for a sample basket of items across the whole urban population of Australia. But this is just an average. Inflation is different for everyone.

Ashley Owen Oct 27, 2023

Interest ratesAustralian economyEconomicsInflation

Australia-v-rest of the world on Inflation & Interest rates. RBA is lagging and has more work to do

Today (25 October 2023) the latest inflation figures for Australia were released (for the September quarter). The news was mixed – quarterly inflation rose from 0.8% to 1.2%, but the annual rate (rolling 12 months) fell from 6.1% to 5.4%. Meanwhile the cash rate has been sitting at 4.1% since June, after twelve rate hikes.

Ashley Owen Oct 25, 2023

InflationAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns

Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive

Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive and ahead of inflation.

Ashley Owen Oct 20, 2023

International sharesInflationAustralian shares

Australian shares ‘Shiller/CAPE’ ratio: not over-priced like the US. Uncle Sam still calls the tune

Australian share market ‘Shiller/CAPE’ ratio – not over-priced like the US. Uncle Sam still calls the tune, but Australia is better placed for growth.

Ashley Owen Oct 11, 2023

International sharesInflationAustralian shares

US market - ‘Shiller/CAPE’ ratio update: It’s flashing orange. . . but what action should we take?

Ashley Owen Oct 06, 2023

InflationEconomics

"Sticky Inflation", Productivity, Housing, Commodities boom/bust + "What's keeping the AUD down?"

Here is our quick snapshot of Australian and US share markets, short-term interest rates, bond yields, and the AUD

Ashley Owen Sep 04, 2023

RecessionsInflationInterest rates

Last time we had an inflation-busting rate-hike Recession – shares surged! This time is Different –

Nothing scares investors more than news of a ‘recession!’ But why? Recessions have mostly been good for Australian shares! That’s right. Contrary to the popular myth that recessions are bad for share markets, in the vast majority of economic ‘recessions’ in Australia over the past 150 years, the local share market has actually risen!

Ashley Owen Aug 28, 2023

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

Inflation

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