Category: Australian Economy

1-27 out of 27 results.

EconomicsFinancial MarketsAustralian economyInflationInterest rates

5 Reasons the RBA is not cutting rates like the rest of the world - Why I'd rather NOT see rate cuts

Several other countries are into their second rate cut already - why hasn't the RBA cut rates yet? Here are 5 fact-based reasons When will we get rate cuts here? Why I am NOT looking foward to rate cuts!

Ashley Owen Sep 14, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyCurrencyAustralian economy

Australia’s big banks: Origin of the Species, or ‘Survival of the Fattest!’

Ever wondered where our big dinosaur banks came from, and how they got so big? And why they are all virtually the same? How Australia became the richest country in the world per capita - without a central bank, without a national currency, and without bank regulation? How the dozens of small, independent, competitive banks became the big-4 government protected oligopoly we have today?

Ashley Owen Aug 15, 2024 2

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyAustralian economyFinancial Markets

Labor’s attempt to nationalise all banks in Australia!

Australians have always had a love-hate relationship with their banks. (OK, so it’s mostly hate). But it was not always the case. Believe it or not, there was a time when the Australian public loved their banks so much they kicked out a Federal government that was trying to close the banks down! Here is the remarkable story of Banks -v- Politics, Capitalism -v- Socialism right here in Australia.

Ashley Owen Jul 21, 2024

Wars & military conflictsExports, tradeChinaAustralian economyCommodities

Geopolitics case study - China: largest export customer + potential military threat - a problem?

Our largest export customer and source of wealth & prosperity - also a potential military threat - is this a problem? My answer is no, but for reasons you may not expect. Here is why I am bullish on Australia’s continued resource-based prosperity as global tensions escalate. Australians have been masters at turning geopolitical shifts and crises into economic advantage!

Ashley Owen Jul 03, 2024

Exports, tradeAustralian economyAgricultureCommodities & Mining

RBA Deputy Governor opens speech with my chart!

A bit chuffed this week. RBA Dep Gov opened his keynote speech at a major economic forum - with one of my charts. What does he see as Australia's three main sources of wealth and prosperity (and why they matter in future)? How does he see monetary policy being managed in future? What are his observations on Australia - as a 'Stranger in Paradise'?

Ashley Owen Jun 28, 2024 2

BondsGovernment – deficits, debtAustralian economyEconomicsChina

The Debt Olympics - How do we rate?

Australia and Australians loaded up on debt in the GFC and again in Covid, but how do we stack up against other countries? How do we rate on: Government debt? Corporate debt? Household debt? Is debt good or bad? When does it become a problem? The answers are probably very different to what you may have thought.

Ashley Owen May 07, 2024

International sharesBondsAsset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy

March 2024 Snapshot - Shares keep rising despite strong economy + sticky inflation

March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.

Ashley Owen Apr 01, 2024

RecessionsAustralian economyInterest rates

Company insolvencies up 100%! - 3 reasons not to panic

Yes, company failures are up 100% - but here are three reasons not to panic Insolvency rates tell us about the Business Cycle - Where are we now? Where to next? Which industries are under most pressure? Why the next recession will see fewer company failures than past recessions Why I'm bullish on Aussie companies as a whole, recession or not

Ashley Owen Mar 21, 2024

Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationAustralian economy

Australia's shrinking growth - mostly just population growth

Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on population rather than real reforms to improve productivity and living standards. It has been deteriorating for several decades through governments of all types. Here is the Big Picture you will not find anywhere else.

Ashley Owen Mar 07, 2024

International sharesAustralian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economy

Feb 2024 Snapshot - early rate cut hopes dashed but shares surge on confidence from US profits

He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.

Ashley Owen Mar 03, 2024

RecessionsInflationAustralian economySocial & EnvironmentalEconomics

Australia's 'Misery Index': Inflation + Unemployment

Australia's Misery Index: Unemployment + Inflation. Where are we now?

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares Australian economy

Case Study: JB-Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star, or the next Myer?

JB Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star or the next Myer?

Ashley Owen Feb 14, 2024 2

CryptoInternational sharesAustralian shares Interest ratesInflationAustralian economy

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls

January 2024 snapshot - shares climb on hopes of early rate cuts as inflation falls. Essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate.

Ashley Owen Feb 05, 2024 2

Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationAustralian shares Exports, tradeAustralian economy

Australia's remarkable population-led growth

Australia’s population just hit 27 million, 18 years sooner than planned. Australia has the highest population growth rate outside of Africa, but it is still the sparsest country on earth.

Ashley Owen Jan 31, 2024 2

Australian shares Australian economyExports, tradeWealth, InequalityCommodities & Mining

Reflections on Australia - lucky country for investors!

In Australia we tend to take a lot for granted. Australia is the richest country in the world per capita (a record we have held since 1890) - but why? It's not just resource riches and/or British colonisation - there are plenty of resource-rich countries, and plenty of ex-British colonies that are economic basket cases today. How I personally got lucky - twice - in the great lottery of life.

Ashley Owen Jan 27, 2024 2

Australian economyInterest ratesInflationCurrency

What drives the Aussie dollar? – Part 1: Interest Rate Differentials

Every day (in fact every minute of every day and night) the value of the Aussie dollar jumps around, seemingly at random.

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2023

Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesRecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomics

Why do share markets crash? – Part B: Update on Australia

The simple answer is that the Australian share market crashes (and rebounds) because, and when, the US market does. The US is the largest and most influential market that affects all global markets, asset classes, and investors. What happens on our local market is almost always driven by what happens on Wall Street (with rare exceptions like 1907 and 1951), regardless of local conditions, events, or pricing.

Ashley Owen Nov 27, 2023

Australian shares RecessionsAustralian economyFinancial MarketsEconomicsStock market crashes

Why do share markets crash? – A: Update on the US

Recessions do NOT cause or trigger share market sell-offs. Nor do share markets crash because, or when, they become expensive. Share markets fall when shareholders en masse suddenly start to expect imminent big cuts to profits and dividends.

Ashley Owen Nov 23, 2023

Population, demographics, immigrationInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian economy

Australia v US share markets – it’s our turn next!

Australia and the US have had the best share markets in the world for the past 100+ years, but: Why? Which market has generated higher returns? Which has had the bigger booms and busts? Who’s turn is it next?

Ashley Owen Nov 20, 2023

CommoditiesEconomicsAustralian economyExports, tradeAgricultureCommodities & MiningChina

Australia’s bounty: 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot

Commodities matter! More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners (the vast majority are explorers with little more than a map, a compass, and high hopes, but a small number of miners do actually produce something).

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2023

Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economyAustralian shares

Australian share market has gone nowhere for 16 years? Is it ‘broken’? Has it lost its mojo?

The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?

Ashley Owen Nov 10, 2023

Asset classes, asset class returnsAustralian economyAustralian shares

Market Monitor - October 2023 wrap-up: Central banks not done yet with rate hikes

Welcome to the Monthly Market Monitor for October 2023. First, here is our quick snapshot of Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD since the start of 2020

Ashley Owen Nov 02, 2023

InflationAustralian economyEconomicsAsset allocation, portfolio construction

Inflation is not the same for all. What is your own personal inflation rate? And why it matters when

The official inflation figures measure price inflation for a sample basket of items across the whole urban population of Australia. But this is just an average. Inflation is different for everyone.

Ashley Owen Oct 27, 2023

Interest ratesAustralian economyEconomicsInflation

Australia-v-rest of the world on Inflation & Interest rates. RBA is lagging and has more work to do

Today (25 October 2023) the latest inflation figures for Australia were released (for the September quarter). The news was mixed – quarterly inflation rose from 0.8% to 1.2%, but the annual rate (rolling 12 months) fell from 6.1% to 5.4%. Meanwhile the cash rate has been sitting at 4.1% since June, after twelve rate hikes.

Ashley Owen Oct 25, 2023

International sharesEconomicsAustralian economy

September 2023 Reality sets in - higher inflation and interest rates hit shares bonds property

Welcome to the Monthly Market Monitor for September 2023. Key developments affecting investment markets during the month included:

Ashley Owen Oct 02, 2023

Australian economyCommodities & MiningChinaExports, trade

China builds another ‘Sydney CBD’ every 3 days – with our rocks!

Property construction has been the largest component of China’s incredible economic growth this century, and also the largest contributor to Australia’s export revenues, government tax receipts, corporate profits, and national wealth.

Ashley Owen Sep 15, 2023

Population, demographics, immigrationAustralian economyWealth, Inequality

Where are You on the Income Tax Pyramid? 42% of adults pay no tax!

It’s tax return time in Australia. As we fill in our tax returns and pay our taxes, we often wonder – Am I paying too much tax? Am I paying my ‘fair share?’ What is a ‘fair share’, anyway?

Ashley Owen Sep 11, 2023

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

Australian Economy

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