I was a bit chuffed this week. Received an email out of the blue from the RBA Deputy Governor asking if he could use one of my charts and stories on Australia’s changing export mix to open a speech he was making later in the week (last night 27 June).
He wanted a killer chart to highlight the first of Australia’s three great sources of wealth - its resource abundance, in particular the diversity, depth, and ability to change the mix of resource exports over time.
Video stream of his speech last night is here -
https://rba.livecrowdevents.tv/SpeechbyAndrewHauserDeputyGovernor27June/stream
My original story is here:
· Australia’s bounty: 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot (15 Nov 2023)
Yes – 400 years! There is ample evidence of widespread trade between locals across the north of the continent and various peoples throughout South-East Asia and especially China – going back centuries before the Brits arrived, a point the Deputy Governor recognised in his acknowledgement of country.
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Other two sources of wealth
In his speech he also outlined what he saw were the other two great sources of Australia’s wealth and prosperity - the ability to maintain stable, pro-growth governments and institutions, and the openness and attractiveness for foreign investment.
A warning perhaps of the tendency to take these for granted, and the dangers of complacency if we don't actively maintain positive momentum on all three fronts.
Monetary policy?
It was inevitable that he was drawn into the hot topic of the day - monetary policy, and how the RBA is dealing with inflation. Naturally he was guarded in what he could say.
For me, three themes stood out. The first was his assessment that central banks around the world had scored rather poorly on their performances in the Covid crisis and aftermath.
The second was his reiteration of the idea that policy decision processes are about a lot more than just 'one number'.
The third was his view that central banks should probably be shifting their attention from the demand side of the equation, and start to focus more on the supply side when managing aggregate demand. Interesting times!
Fortunately for the predominantly Aussie audience, there was no mention of cricket!
Ok, time for me to get back to month-end, quarter-end, and year-end work - and coming up with more stories and killer charts!
‘Till next time – happy investing!
Thank you for your time – please send me feedback and/or ideas for future editions!