Saturday, December 21, 2024

  • Ashley Owen

Ashley Owen

 

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Experiences


Director/Principal, Owen Analytics Pty Ltd (current)

Investment Markets Research & Analytics, Portfolio Construction & Management, Corporate Finance, Venture Capital, M&A, and IPOs. Investment Committee membership, consulting to advice firms and financial institutions.

Co-founder & Regular Contributor, Firstlinks (current)

Co-founder of Australia's leading investment and superannuation newsletter and website for industry professionals and investors.

Non-exec Director, Third Link Investment Managers (current)

Leading Australian equities fund-of-funds that donates all management fees to Australian charities. The fund has donated in excess of $21m to a range of Australian chartities since inception in 2008. 

Chief Investment Officer, Stanford Brown (past)

Responsible for managing over $2 billion AUM in multi-asset class portfolios and discretionary accounts at a privately-owned advice practice.

Director & Joint CEO at Philo Capital Advisers Pty Ltd (past)

Specialises in investment portfolio construction & management, multi-asset class asset allocation, and global macro strategies.

Check out my full bio here

1-30 out of 112 results.
EconomicsInflationInterest ratesMoney
Cash rates are already too low to contain inflation - why central bankers are in a pickle

The tremendous 2-year rally in share markets (even after this week's mini-fall) has been based on the assumption of several more rate cuts soon. Even if inflation is back to target (it isn't yet), current cash rates are already too low to contain inflation in Australia, the US, and other markets, Be careful what you wish for - the only reason for rapid rate cuts would be a sharp recession - and nobody wants that!

Ashley Owen Dec 20, 2024
Australian shares Asset classes, asset class returnsStock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles
We're half-way through the 2020s decade! Here's the half-time score check on Aussie shares

The decade half-time score check for the Aussie share market is not that good: Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far (and below other markets eg the US). It has been below average all decade – after a poor start with the 2020 Covid lockdowns. But all is not lost – some past decades also started out slow but ended up with good full decade returns. There is plenty of time left this decade for the next big speculative boom to lift the share market – history is on our side!    

Ashley Owen Dec 16, 2024
Financial MarketsDebtGovernment – deficits, debtBonds
Who wants to buy US debt? (lend to Uncle Sam?) Most of the world but me! Who’s buying, selling, why?

Just about everyone is rushing in to lend more money to the profligate US government – except China, Russia, Iran (and me). China has dumped $413b of US debt (one third of its peak holdings) since Trump started his trade war in 2018, and accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the UK soaked up all of that and more, increasing its holdings by $515b.

Ashley Owen Dec 13, 2024 4
Commodities & MiningExports, tradeChina
China’s 4-year trade war with Australia is over. It was the wake-up call we needed!

It was a much-needed wake-up call for Aussie exporters to diversify into other markets and reduce their heavy reliance on China.    China's share of exports fell from 42% to 32%, taken up by increasing exports to the rest of Asia, and USA. Australia's exports continued  to

Ashley Owen Dec 08, 2024
Financial MarketsAsset classes, asset class returnsInternational sharesCrypto
November 2024 snapshot: Trump, Gold, & Bitcoin!

Here is my essential snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors.  The Trump circus continues - and a new era of crony capitalism. Share market up - heading for another cracking year. Interest rates & inflation - down everywhere but here. Gold & Bitcoin shine - but which is better?

Ashley Owen Dec 01, 2024
More Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0: Government Size, Deficits, Debts

Governments have expanded in size everywhere – but not in US or Australia.  Budget deficits are worsening almost everywhere. Government debts have ballooned.  

Ashley Owen Nov 29, 2024 2
EconomicsSocial & EnvironmentalAustralian economyPopulation, demographics, immigration
Big changes in the world since Trump 1.0 – Part 1: Shape & distribution of Economic Growth

In the 8 years since the start of Trump’s first term, the global economy has changed fundamentally. Part 1 looks at big changes in the shape and distribution of economic growth: There are 600 million more people in the world. That's more than the entire 19th century! Populations are aging everywhere. The global economic pie is US$10 trillion larger. 

Ashley Owen Nov 24, 2024
Real Estate and PropertyInflationInternational shares
House prices -v- other Real Assets part 2: Microsoft & US shares

House prices have soared – but that’s mostly just inflation due to continued debasement of paper money.  Compared to other 'Real Assets', house prices have fallen in value over time.  Case in point: US shares.   

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2024
It’s not just a US boom: 80% of share markets are up in 2024. What drives global booms & busts?

It’s not just about US 'big-tech'.  Most other countries are up, and a dozen markets are up even more than the US.  Why are booms and busts global?      It is time for the next big sell-off?

Ashley Owen Nov 11, 2024 2
Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAsset classes, asset class returns
October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls

Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets?  Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year?  Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?  

Ashley Owen Nov 04, 2024
Population, demographics, immigrationInternational sharesSocial & Environmental
Report from the Big Apple on election eve 2024 - to the Barricades!

Having spent the past 18 days travelling around North America, here are my top-10 observations on the election race from New York.  What are Americans saying about the election race and the campaigns?  Barricades are being erected all over New York City – is it in anticipation of civil unrest following the election?

Ashley Owen Oct 30, 2024
CommoditiesStock storiesESG, renewables, climate change
Woodside case study Part 2: Since 1980 – struggling producer to global giant to fossil fuel pariah!

How Woodside went from cash-strapped explorer to global giant and one of Australia’s biggest export earners. Still a wild ride for investors – as a leveraged bet on commodities prices, plus political risks. Despite huge profits and becoming a top-10 ASX company, still struggles to beat the overall market.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024
Commodities & MiningSocial & EnvironmentalCommoditiesStock storiesESG, renewables, climate change
Woodside case study Part 1: 1954 to 1980 – volatile speculative survivor to national hero

Good case study representing the vast majority of ASX listed companies – as a volatile speculative hopeful with no revenues or assets to underpin value. Eventually defied the odds and the elements by actually finding something of enormous value.  But it required extreme patience and perseverance – it holds the record for longest wait for first revenue, first profit, and first dividend of any ASX listed co

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024
CommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWars & military conflicts
World War II & share markets – Part 2 of 2: Through to the end of the War and aftermath

Key points: Australian and US share markets did well overall, despite heavy loss of life and attacks on our home soil. Volatile ride for shareholders, but patient holders ahead. Generally good for shares overall, limited only by war-time controls on profits and share prices.  

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024
CommoditiesInternational sharesWars & military conflictsAustralian shares
World War II & share markets – Part 1 of 2: the Outbreak

War is scary, so it is tempting for investors to panic and race for the exits.  It's important to look beyond the media headlines - knee-jerk, herd-following reactions are usually wrong.  Usually positive for commodities demand, prices, mining shares.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024
Financial MarketsAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAsset classes, asset class returns
3/4 time score check: 2024 - Great returns despite constant 'recession' fear mongering

Here's my 3/4 time score check on asset class returns to September 2024.  Almost all are positive and ahead of inflation.    Most are doing better than their long term average returns.  Which are the best and worst?   How is the end of year shaping up? 

Ashley Owen Oct 05, 2024
Commodities & MiningFinancial MarketsChinaInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares
September 2024 snapshot: Fed’s first rate cut + China stimulus boost markets – is it enough?

Here’s my quick snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors Essential 1-page chart covering share markets, cash rates, bond yields, and FX + my Top 5 factors moving markets

Ashley Owen Oct 01, 2024 4
InflationCommoditiesInterest rates
Gold price pointing to US inflation rising next year - the Fed may not be done yet!

Gold has been the best performing asset class this year, but what is it saying about the outlook for US inflation?   It is pointing to rising US inflation in the year ahead, so the Fed may not be done yet with rate hikes. This would be bearish for US and global share and bond markets.   How does this sit with fears of recession in the US? Why I'm still bullish on US shares and gold - for now.

Ashley Owen Sep 23, 2024
InflationInterest ratesInternational sharesRecessions
Let the US rate cuts begin! Usually good for shares, but it will NOT be plain sailing!

In rate cut cycles, shares have usually posted higher returns, but also higher volatility The big issue is inflation - has it been solved or will it revive like in past cycles? With monetary policy now being eased, can we rely on Trump or Harris for fiscal restraint to contain inflation?

Ashley Owen Sep 18, 2024
EconomicsFinancial MarketsAustralian economyInflationInterest rates
5 Reasons the RBA is not cutting rates like the rest of the world - Why I'd rather NOT see rate cuts

Several other countries are into their second rate cut already - why hasn't the RBA cut rates yet? Here are 5 fact-based reasons When will we get rate cuts here? Why I am NOT looking foward to rate cuts!

Ashley Owen Sep 14, 2024
Commodities & MiningCommoditiesExports, tradeAustralian shares China
Iron Ore – biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits & dividends – where are we now?

The iron ore price is the biggest driver of ASX market returns, profits and dividends, and the biggest contributor to the wealth of all Australians, but iron ore prices have sunk back below $100, taking the big miners with it. Where are we now in the cycle?  Why I am bearish short term but reasonably bullish longer term.   How I found a 'thousand-bagger' but am no longer invested.  

Ashley Owen Sep 05, 2024 1
Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesAustralian shares International shares
August 2024 snapshot: Shares hold up - still waiting for US rate cut(s)

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets and why? Who were the winners and losers in global and local share markets?

Ashley Owen Sep 01, 2024
Australian shares Stock stories
Transurban – end of the gravy train for monopoly toll road powerhouse?

Transurban (TCL) was one of Australia’s great corporate success stories – until it was hit by a triple-whammy of Covid lockdowns, inflation, and public/political backlashes. Do the new CEO and chairperson have the political cunning and connections to revive Transurban’s once-golden yellow brick road?   Here's my take on Transurban for long term investors. 

Ashley Owen Aug 27, 2024
Commodities & MiningCommoditiesAustralian shares International sharesWealth, Inequality
Australia: Most listed stocks per capita, and biggest gamblers in the world - Is there a link?

Australia has more listed companies per head of population than just about any other country on earth – and many times more than the US. Why? Is it because we have many times more viable business opportunities to pursue? Or is it because we have the wiliest stock promoters and spruikers, and we are the biggest gamblers in the world? Actually it is both!

Ashley Owen Aug 22, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyCurrencyAustralian economy
Australia’s big banks: Origin of the Species, or ‘Survival of the Fattest!’

Ever wondered where our big dinosaur banks came from, and how they got so big? And why they are all virtually the same? How Australia became the richest country in the world per capita - without a central bank, without a national currency, and without bank regulation?   How the dozens of small, independent, competitive banks became the big-4 government protected oligopoly we have today?

Ashley Owen Aug 15, 2024 2
Wealth, InequalityPopulation, demographics, immigrationSocial & Environmental
Paris Olympics – who were the real winners adjusted for population and wealth?

It was Australia's best ever medal haul based on a simple medal count. But who were the real winners when we adjust for the vast differences in  population and wealth in each country? How do we really rate against our rivals and peers?

Ashley Owen Aug 12, 2024 2
Stock market crashesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesAustralian shares Financial Markets
‘Worst’ days on the ASX? (" . . . THAT’s a knife!”)

After my story on Monday pointing out that the -3.8% fall on the ASX was relatively minor and there have been dozens of worse days on the ASX - many people asked me what those 'big' down days  were, so here they are. What were the really bad days on the Australian share market? What caused them? How do they compare to the worst days on Wall Street? Are share markets really 'random' like finance theory claims?  

Ashley Owen Aug 08, 2024
BIG days on Australian share market – but how bad was it?

Today was the worst day on the local Australian share market for 4 years. But how bad was it really? What should investors do about it? Is it time to panic sell? How markets are not random like finance textbooks suggest How these are the times that make or break investors  

Ashley Owen Aug 05, 2024
July 2024 snapshot – shares rise on stabilising inflation

My essential quick snapshot for Aussie investors What happened in investment markets in July - and why? Who were the winners and losers in Aussie and global share markets? Has inflation finally been tamed?  Bond markets finally in positive territory - but why I still don't like them?    

Ashley Owen Aug 01, 2024
Stock storiesAustralian shares Asset allocation, portfolio constructionRetirement planning
CBA in 7 charts – the ‘Steven Bradbury’ of Australian banking – now suddenly a ‘growth stock’?

I am neither a buyer nor a seller - so why does it matter? Why CBA is the 'Steven Bradbury' of the banking world? Its share price is soaring but its fundamentals stalled a decade ago. What sort of returns can we expect in future? Here's my quick take in 7 charts.

Ashley Owen Jul 29, 2024

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

 

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

 

Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

 

 

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  • ashley.owen@owenanalytics.com.au

Copyright © 2024 Owen Analytics

About Ashley Owen | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Archive | Disclaimer

The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.