Saturday, July 26, 2025
March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?
Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors - Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.
Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?
Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?
What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!
This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start. Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!)
Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!
How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all
125 reasons NOT to invest! ‘This time is different’ – or is it?
It's that time of year again - time to review a whole new year of possible threats, risks, and crises that might blow up share markets. What are the big risks that might spook investors in 2025? How share markets power through even the greatest crises the world has ever faced.
We're half-way through the 2020s decade! Here's the half-time score check on Aussie shares
The decade half-time score check for the Aussie share market is not that good: Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far (and below other markets eg the US). It has been below average all decade – after a poor start with the 2020 Covid lockdowns. But all is not lost – some past decades also started out slow but ended up with good full decade returns. There is plenty of time left this decade for the next big speculative boom to lift the share market – history is on our side!
November 2024 snapshot: Trump, Gold, & Bitcoin!
Here is my essential snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors. The Trump circus continues - and a new era of crony capitalism. Share market up - heading for another cracking year. Interest rates & inflation - down everywhere but here. Gold & Bitcoin shine - but which is better?
October 2024 snapshot: shares & bonds fall as Trump takes lead in polls
Here’s my snapshot on global markets for Aussie investors – including my Top 5 factors moving markets. What is the big policy difference between Trump and Harris that is moving markets? Why have gold and bitcoin been the best asset classes this year? Will the Fed and RBA cut rates this week?
3/4 time score check: 2024 - Great returns despite constant 'recession' fear mongering
Here's my 3/4 time score check on asset class returns to September 2024. Almost all are positive and ahead of inflation. Most are doing better than their long term average returns. Which are the best and worst? How is the end of year shaping up?
Another good financial year for lazy investors! How did your returns stack up?
Today's chart shows returns from the main asset classes and sectors for Aussie investors for 2022-3 and 2023-4, including returns from a standard, passive 70/30 'growth' portfolio mix. How did your returns stack up?
May 2024 Snapshot: Inflation, trade wars, but shares stronger. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?
May 2024 Snapshot: inflation sticky, trade wars escalate, but shares heading for another good year. How is your 2023/4 year shaping up?
Active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money - Why?
Active fund managers are almost universally useless. Here is my updated report on how much wealth they destroy for Aussie investors. Are they getting any better? Why do we let them take $4.5b from our pockets every year? Where does the money go? How much do they pocket? How much do they just throw away through incompetence?
April 2024 snapshot - rate cut hopes finally dashed - is this the big one?
Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors - covering Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the Aussie dollar. Share and bond markets fell back a little as investors finally realised that central banks are not going to cut rates hard and fast. 'Is the is the start of the big correction?' - or 'Are we done for now?
Margin Lending boom-bust signal of share market over-confidence - Not flashing red yet
I have never used or recommended margin lending, but margin lending volumes are a great barometer of boom-bust cycles. Where are we now in the cycle? Are we near the top of the market?
US Shares vastly over-priced + primed to fall - What will the trigger be?
The US share market hit new record highs at the end of March but has retreated a little in April. is this enough of a correction? Is the market still expensive? Is it the start of the next big correction? Here is my update on the US 'CAPE' ratio and what it means for returns
The Low Inflation era of great returns is over. Investing just got a whole lot harder!
Investors enjoyed unusually high returns in the past couple of decades because EVERY asset class posted above average returns when inflation was low. A blind-folded monkey with a dart board picking any random mix of asset classes would have done well! But that era of great returns from low inflation is over. What types of assets do best in different inflation conditions? What is the best inflation hedge? How to build long term portfolios for high(er) inflation?
March 2024 Snapshot - Shares keep rising despite strong economy + sticky inflation
March 2024 snapshot – Fed + RBA warn inflation not yet contained, but shares keep surging Here is my essential 1-page snapshot for Aussie investors – What is happening in local and global investment markets and Why.
US Shares: 'double-whammy' of over-pricing, but how serious is it?
The US share market is soaring, but bullish profit forecasts, plus bullish multiples give us a 'double-whammy' of over-pricing. Current p/e ratios - expensive but extreme yet? Profit outlooks - also bullish, but how stretched are they? Why short and long term interest rates are both relatively low given the inflation task Why pricing is different from timing or triggers
Feb 2024 Snapshot - early rate cut hopes dashed but shares surge on confidence from US profits
He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.
Share Market Pricing per Country - how do we rate?
The US dominates world markets and is the sole reason why the global share market as a whole appears very expensive. On the other hand, Australia appears much better value – but is it?
124 Reasons NOT to invest! - This time is different - or is it?
Every year there are ‘End of the world’, or ‘End of life as we know it’ crises and threats that scare investors into waiting and watching from the sidelines, but share markets have always seemed to power through them. Are the current batch of threats and fears different this time?
Australian Share Market Annual Returns Pyramid
2023 was a good year for the Australian share market, but where does it sit in historical terms? The past five years were actually rather boring and ho-hum for the share market – despite a host of extreme events like the Covid lockdowns, steep recessions, inflation spikes, aggressive rate hikes, wars, rising military tensions, bank collapses, etc.
Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again!
Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again! In 2023, almost all asset classes posted positive returns, most were above average, and most beat inflation, despite doom & gloom from the so-called ‘experts’. Here is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly asset classes for 2023.
Australian share market has gone nowhere for 16 years? Is it ‘broken’? Has it lost its mojo?
The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?
Market Monitor - October 2023 wrap-up: Central banks not done yet with rate hikes
Welcome to the Monthly Market Monitor for October 2023. First, here is our quick snapshot of Australian and US share markets, short- and long-term interest rates, inflation, and the AUD since the start of 2020
Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive
Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive and ahead of inflation.
Aussie retirement funds have highest ‘growth/defensive’ asset mix in the world. Is this higher risk?
What is the best or ideal asset allocation for long term investment funds, including retirement/pension funds?
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