Category: Stock Stories

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Australian shares Stock storiesInvestment & Wealth Mgmt

Virgin IPO – My 3 simple rules for IPOs (or: ‘This stinking mess again?!’)

Rule 1: If Private Equity is selling - Run. In the other direction. Fast. You can be sure the accounts will be riddled with fudged numbers, hidden liabilities, non-existent 'assets', and a pandora's box of under-handed skullduggery. Rule 2: Any ai (automated idiot) bot will tell you that the 'i' in IPO stands for 'initial'. But this is no 'virgin'. It's been around the block a few times. (Misleading PR. Refer to Rule 1). Rule 3: Ignore the glossy PR, high pressure sales tactics, highly-polished accounts, and do your own research into the business and industry. In this case, why would I want to be part-owner of an under-capitalised, foreign-controlled player in a highly parochial market that has never profitably supported more than one dominant player, which is a government-protected, ex-gov department that wrote the book on political schmoozing?

Ashley Owen Jun 05, 2025

International sharesStock storiesInvestment bubbles/busts, cycles

How the ‘Magnificent-7’ stack up – 8 key charts

Just 7 companies make up 19% of the combined value of the entire 15,000 companies listed on world share markets, but they produce just 12% of total world profits, and just 3% of world dividends. They are over-priced on just about every measure, but are they worth it? What justified their astronomical pricing? There is a fairly obvious odd-one-out here - which is it? I have been bullish on US/global shares in portfolios - will this change?

Ashley Owen Jan 28, 2025 2

CommoditiesStock storiesESG, renewables, climate change

Woodside case study Part 2: Since 1980 – struggling producer to global giant to fossil fuel pariah!

How Woodside went from cash-strapped explorer to global giant and one of Australia’s biggest export earners. Still a wild ride for investors – as a leveraged bet on commodities prices, plus political risks. Despite huge profits and becoming a top-10 ASX company, still struggles to beat the overall market.

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

Commodities & MiningSocial & EnvironmentalCommoditiesStock storiesESG, renewables, climate change

Woodside case study Part 1: 1954 to 1980 – volatile speculative survivor to national hero

Good case study representing the vast majority of ASX listed companies – as a volatile speculative hopeful with no revenues or assets to underpin value. Eventually defied the odds and the elements by actually finding something of enormous value. But it required extreme patience and perseverance – it holds the record for longest wait for first revenue, first profit, and first dividend of any ASX listed co

Ashley Owen Oct 10, 2024

Australian shares Stock stories

Transurban – end of the gravy train for monopoly toll road powerhouse?

Transurban (TCL) was one of Australia’s great corporate success stories – until it was hit by a triple-whammy of Covid lockdowns, inflation, and public/political backlashes. Do the new CEO and chairperson have the political cunning and connections to revive Transurban’s once-golden yellow brick road? Here's my take on Transurban for long term investors.

Ashley Owen Aug 27, 2024 2

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyCurrencyAustralian economy

Australia’s big banks: Origin of the Species, or ‘Survival of the Fattest!’

Ever wondered where our big dinosaur banks came from, and how they got so big? And why they are all virtually the same? How Australia became the richest country in the world per capita - without a central bank, without a national currency, and without bank regulation? How the dozens of small, independent, competitive banks became the big-4 government protected oligopoly we have today?

Ashley Owen Aug 15, 2024 2

Stock storiesAustralian shares Asset allocation, portfolio constructionRetirement planning

CBA in 7 charts – the ‘Steven Bradbury’ of Australian banking – now suddenly a ‘growth stock’?

I am neither a buyer nor a seller - so why does it matter? Why CBA is the 'Steven Bradbury' of the banking world? Its share price is soaring but its fundamentals stalled a decade ago. What sort of returns can we expect in future? Here's my quick take in 7 charts.

Ashley Owen Jul 29, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyAustralian economyFinancial Markets

Labor’s attempt to nationalise all banks in Australia!

Australians have always had a love-hate relationship with their banks. (OK, so it’s mostly hate). But it was not always the case. Believe it or not, there was a time when the Australian public loved their banks so much they kicked out a Federal government that was trying to close the banks down! Here is the remarkable story of Banks -v- Politics, Capitalism -v- Socialism right here in Australia.

Ashley Owen Jul 21, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares MoneyFinancial Markets

Which Bank? . . is winning the Battle of the Banks?

Quick 2-question Quiz on Aussie Banks - Q1 - Which of the big Aussie banks has had the largest % share price gain this year? - No it's not CBA, despite all the media attention and hype. Q2 - Which of the big banks has been the best for shareholders over the past one, two, and three decades? - No its not CBA either, despite the widely held belief that it is!

Ashley Owen Jul 17, 2024

Stock storiesBondsAustralian shares

High Yield Debt case study - Virgin Notes

Last week I wrote about the Virgin Airlines disaster for shareholders. That was only half of the story of Virgin's last shot as a listed public company. Here is the other half of the sorry tale - the fate of the buyers and owners of $325m of Vigrin Notes - on the debt side of the balance sheet. It makes a great case study in high-yield / high-risk debt. Are there any new lessons to be learned? &

Ashley Owen Jun 18, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares Investment & Wealth Mgmt

Virgin Airlines round 1: Crash Landing for investors

Virgin Airlines is in the news again. It is being tarted by shifty private equity tricksters hoping to lure another batch of gullible investors into parting with their hard-earned cash - again. Before getting into the merits of Round 2, it’s worth taking a look at what happened in Round 1. (Spoiler alert - Covid did not kill it. It was a dud from the start, and it was killed by bad management expanding too aggressively and running up too much debt.) What are the lessons from the last sorry tale? Has anything changed?

Ashley Owen Jun 11, 2024

Wars & military conflictsStock storiesAustralian shares CommoditiesCommodities & Mining

Political Risk case study: Bougainville - richest gold mine in the world - but you can't touch it

This company is sitting on the richest copper-gold mine in the world, but it has been locked up for 35 years and can't touch it. Political risk crippled what was once a highly profitable 'blue chip' stock. All investing involves political risk, but political risks can be the most volatile, hardest to quantify, and most wealth-destroying. Or perhaps wealth creating - in the right circumstances and at the right price!

Ashley Owen Mar 19, 2024 4

Stock storiesInvestment bubbles/busts, cyclesCommoditiesCommodities & Mining

Case Study 1969-70 Nickel boom-bust

In 2021 and 2022, when the prices of nickel and nickel explorers/miners were soaring, my inbox was flooded with emails asking which nickel stock(s) to jump into. Since all mining booms follow a familiar pattern, and end the same way for the same reasons, I responded by referring to my story about the mother of all nickel boom-busts – Poseidon, involving the very same nickel mines. How’s a one-year gain of 46,000% sound?

Ashley Owen Mar 13, 2024

ESG, renewables, climate changeStock storiesAustralian shares Social & Environmental

Woolworths ESG case study: Duties to owners -v- suppliers, customers, staff

Woolworths CEO forced out early - despite good profit margins and returns on equity. How to balance maximising shareholder value versus other key stakeholders.

Ashley Owen Feb 23, 2024

Stock storiesAustralian shares Australian economy

Case Study: JB-Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star, or the next Myer?

JB Hi-Fi: Misunderstood growth star or the next Myer?

Ashley Owen Feb 14, 2024 2

Commodities & MiningStock stories

Case Study: 2003-7 Uranium-Paladin bubble & bust. Lessons from the last bubble-bust

With the lithium bubble bursting, I am now receiving emails from readers (and hot stock tip-sheets) about how to jump in on the latest ‘hot’ commodity – uranium, as a possible solution in the transition from fossil fuels.

Ashley Owen Nov 06, 2023

Stock storiesAsset allocation, portfolio constructionAustralian shares

Case study: CSL – growth superstar at a rare bargain, or over-priced mature low-growth behemoth?

Ashley Owen Oct 17, 2023

Stock stories

Qantas – My adventure with the over-geared, over-protected, cash-less bird!

This is the story of my adventure with Qantas shares – and proof that the ‘Bigger Fool’ theory works! Media headlines writers are having a field day with all the recent dramas surrounding Qantas.

Ashley Owen Sep 06, 2023

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

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