Thursday, July 31, 2025
My latest webinar for IFPA- Elections, inflation, rate cuts, shares, Trump: is there a grand plan?
Here's my latest webinar for the IFPA's Investment Insight series from 9 May 2025. It's a rollicking romp through some critical issues facing long-term investors in these exciting times. Topics include - elections - productivity - inflation - rate cuts - share market action & valuation levels - and the dreaded 'T' word! Is there a grand plan behind Trump's frenzy of policies?
Australia – land of horse & buggy era dinosaur companies. Where is the innovation, growth, renewal?
Most large ASX companies are century-old relics from the horse & buggy era, relying on domestic population growth, oligopoly pricing power, and gobbling up competitors for growth. But most big US companies are from the computer age. In the US it has been a continuous process of innovation, growth, global domination, then renewal, when they are overtaken and replaced by the next round of innovative, founder-led growth companies. How does Australia's horse & buggy era ASX compare to America's growth-and-renewal stock market, on shareholder returns?
What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!
This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start. Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!)
Australia: Highest dividend yields in the world, so why the endless chase for even higher yields?
Australia has, and has had for decades, the highest dividend yielding share market in the world. This delivers enormous benefits to Aussie investors and retirees by eliminating many of the portfolio planning issues and risks faced in other countries. So why the endless yield chase - where so many people fall victim to high-yield traps and scams?
Quarter-century review: Asset class winners & losers, how things change (and how I got through it)!
How things can change, radically and quickly Booms collapse into busts, winners turn into losers, and prior losers arise from the ashes into new booms My personal journey through it all
3/4 time score check: 2024 - Great returns despite constant 'recession' fear mongering
Here's my 3/4 time score check on asset class returns to September 2024. Almost all are positive and ahead of inflation. Most are doing better than their long term average returns. Which are the best and worst? How is the end of year shaping up?
CBA in 7 charts – the ‘Steven Bradbury’ of Australian banking – now suddenly a ‘growth stock’?
I am neither a buyer nor a seller - so why does it matter? Why CBA is the 'Steven Bradbury' of the banking world? Its share price is soaring but its fundamentals stalled a decade ago. What sort of returns can we expect in future? Here's my quick take in 7 charts.
My ‘10-4 all-weather ETF portfolio’ – Part 2: What’s in it?
Here is my '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio. out of the 348 ETFs on the ASX, which 30 are in the 'squad'? which 9 am I using right now? why it's actually not about the ETFs - it's about the game plan.
Another good financial year for lazy investors! How did your returns stack up?
Today's chart shows returns from the main asset classes and sectors for Aussie investors for 2022-3 and 2023-4, including returns from a standard, passive 70/30 'growth' portfolio mix. How did your returns stack up?
My '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio - Intro
This is my '10-4' all-weather ETF portfolio. It's a simple, low-maintenance, low-cost, long-term diversified ETF-based portfolio that I use for my own long-term money, and as a template for discretionary portfolios for thousands of investors over the past 2 decades. It's simple, effective, and it works.
Active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money - Why?
Active fund managers are almost universally useless. Here is my updated report on how much wealth they destroy for Aussie investors. Are they getting any better? Why do we let them take $4.5b from our pockets every year? Where does the money go? How much do they pocket? How much do they just throw away through incompetence?
Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again!
Patient Passive investors defy Panicking Professionals – again! In 2023, almost all asset classes posted positive returns, most were above average, and most beat inflation, despite doom & gloom from the so-called ‘experts’. Here is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly asset classes for 2023.
Inflation is not the same for all. What is your own personal inflation rate? And why it matters when
The official inflation figures measure price inflation for a sample basket of items across the whole urban population of Australia. But this is just an average. Inflation is different for everyone.
Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive
Three quarter time score check: 2023 a low-scoring year, but most asset classes are positive and ahead of inflation.
Case study: CSL – growth superstar at a rare bargain, or over-priced mature low-growth behemoth?
‘Frankly my dear . . . we need to include Franking Credits in reporting and portfolio planning’
Franking credits on dividends on Australian shares can add more than 1% per year to returns for Australian shareholders. But many professionals don’t include the value of franking credits in their clients’ returns – either historical, or forecast.
Few active fund managers add value. But even value-adding managers almost always fade over time.
Many active fund managers start out well, but they all peak early in their careers, and then it is all downhill from there. Even for the best in the world. Here are 20 actual fund examples, plus 15 reasons for inevitable fund performance fade (the causes are different for every fund), and how to spot them in time.
Most active fund managers continue to destroy value and line their pockets with your money
Over the year to June 2023, active managed funds in Australia destroyed $4.5 billion in wealth from retail investors. Half of this was a straight transfer of wealth from the pockets of innocent investors to the pockets of fund managers. The other half was genuine wealth destruction through incompetence.
Aussie retirement funds have highest ‘growth/defensive’ asset mix in the world. Is this higher risk?
What is the best or ideal asset allocation for long term investment funds, including retirement/pension funds?
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Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.
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Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).
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Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.
‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’
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Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.
“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”
Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.
“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”
Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.