Owen Analytics

Hello and welcome!

I started this web site in late 2023 to post my random scribblings on investing and investment markets. All my work is original, fact-based, and non-conflicted.

It is not ‘monetised’ in any way, and there is no ‘revenue model’. The newsletters are free, and contain no ads or marketing material, or sponsored material at all. I do not receive any direct or indirect financial or non-financial benefit from any company or provider of products or services referred to in the content.

I use my data, analyses, insights, and ideas to invest my own money, and also in my roles on Investment Committees, consulting to advisory firms, and providing data and analysis to institutions (like major bank economics departments, and the RBA, Australia's central bank).

Where I write about specific companies or investments, I will always make it very clear whether I am, or have been, an investor or not, and that is usually the point of the story – to talk about lessons learned along the way. Enjoy!

I have had the privilege of living through, participating in, and learning first-hand from, the best and worst of financial markets over the past 40 years

These experiences - plus degrees in law, economic history, finance, and a CFA charter along the way - have enabled me to develop a unique, multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional view of financial markets, booms & busts, crashes & and rebounds - what drives them, and how to navigate them, from macro vision to micro execution as a hands-on practitioner, investor, adviser, and portfolio manager.

You can check out my bio here. Please subscribe to my Newsletter, connect on LinkedIn, or follow me on (Twitter) X

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Here’s an update on share market pricing around the world, based on the two most widely used measures - price/earnings ratios and dividend yields. USA and India are way out in 'expensive' territory. Are these justified? Australia appears less expensive – but still over-priced given its market structure and sector mix. At the 'cheap' end are Italy, Brazil, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia – does ‘cheap’ mean ‘good value’? Is global share market over-pricing a problem? Is a crash imminent? Why have I remained reasonably bullish on global/US shares despite increasingly expensive pricing?

July 2025 snapshot: Share markets up for 4th month, inflation easing, more rate cuts soon

Another month of good gains on global share markets across almost all industry sectors and countries, despite Trump’s frenzy of deals, adjustments, backflips, side-deals. Inflation continues to ease, but central banks remain cautious and reluctant to cut rates further for now. But bond yields rose at the long end, reflecting fears of higher inflation ahead. Global growth, spending, and employment all remain reasonably strong – defying wide-spread predictions of slowdowns & recessions. On commodities markets, oil and gold kept rising on inflation and Middle East troubles. Iron ore was finally boosted by much-awaited Chinese stimulus.

Aug 01, 2025 2

Chinese steel production – the ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge’ Index’ – how is it holding up?

China builds another Sydney Harbour Bridge worth of steel every 10 minutes! (with iron ore and coal mainly imported from Australia). China’s steel production has been the largest single factor that has driven Australia’s economic growth, prosperity, living standards, tax revenues, share market returns, and even house pieces, so far this century. But with China’s property / construction market collapsed, its economic growth virtually stagnant, and population now declining, has this slowed China’s steel production? - and Australia’s economic growth engine? My ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge Index’ is a simple way of keeping track of this key activity. It measures the number of ‘Sydney Harbour Bridges’ worth of steel China producers per hour. Where are we now? The growth era is behind us, but steel production is holding up remarkably well

Jul 24, 2025 2

2024-5: another year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. Did yours earn near 12%?

2024-5 was the third straight year of solid double-digit returns for diversified ‘passive’ ETF investors. A standard 70/30 (‘balanced’) fund or ETF portfolio should have returned near 12% after fees. Did yours? Problem is – most industry, corporate, retail super funds returned less than this. Why? Most have big holdings of opaque, illiquid assets, and/or pilfer your life savings to spend on marketing, sponsorships, and political donations. Even small amounts of under-performance can compound into very large differences in your future wealth and lifestyle. Here are the returns of major asset classes in 2024-5 and a 70/30 pro-forma portfolio mix.

Jul 16, 2025

Half-time 2025: Good start for 80% of share markets. Defying tariffs, turmoil, tiresome predictions

In first half of 2025 - 80% of world share markets are up, and 57% are up by more than 10%. A good start to another good year despite a constant chorus of wrong predictions of imminent recessions and corrections by economists and ‘expert’ commentators. It’s been a broad global rally, NOT just ‘US big-tech’ lifting the world. Can the rally continue? There have been plenty of longer rallies in the past!

Jul 12, 2025 2

Additionally featured in - no sponsorship involved.

Another month of strong gains on global share markets, across almost all industry sectors. Gold and oil prices spiked briefly after the US bombing of Iran, but receded by month end. Industrial commodities are mostly down on global slowdown fears plus over-production. Bond yields are down on global slowdown fears, and the US dollar continues to slide as per plan. For the 2024/5 financial year, diversified growth/balanced portfolios posted another year of above-average double-digit returns, despite all of the dramas and scares during the year.

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others.

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his regular columns on personal finance are published in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing.

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards.

"I read all of Ashley's research on financial and economic issuess. His data resources, deep knowledge, and original analysis put him in a class of his own."

Ian Macfarlane AC - Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's central bank), 1996-2006. Former Director, Woolworths, Leighton Holdings, and ANZ Bank. Also on the International Advisory Boards of Goldman Sachs (2007-2016), the China Banking Regulatory Commission (2011-2014), and director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (2004-2017).

Hello and welcome!

I have had the privilege of living through, participating in, and learning first-hand from, the best and worst of financial markets over the past 40 years

Share Market Pricing per Country – how does your country rate?

July 2025 snapshot: Share markets up for 4th month, inflation easing, more rate cuts soon

Chinese steel production – the ‘Sydney Harbour Bridge’ Index’ – how is it holding up?

2024-5: another year of double-digit returns for diversified portfolios. Did yours earn near 12%?

Half-time 2025: Good start for 80% of share markets. Defying tariffs, turmoil, tiresome predictions

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Half-time 2025: Good start for 80% of share markets. Defying tariffs, turmoil, tiresome predictions

June 2025 snapshot: another great month (and financial year) for shares and diversified investors

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