Owen Analytics

Stay Ahead: Professional-Grade Market Intelligence

Hello and welcome!

I started this web site in late 2023 to post my random scribblings on investing and investment markets. All my work is original, fact-based, and non-conflicted.

It is not ‘monetised’ in any way, and there is no ‘revenue model’. The newsletters are free, and contain no ads or marketing material or sponsored material at all. I do not receive any direct or indirect financial or non-financial benefit from any company or provider of products or services referred to in the content. I use my data, analyses, insights, and ideas to invest my own money. I also use the material in my roles on Investment Committees, consulting to advisory firms, and providing data and analysis to institutions.

Where I write about specific companies or investments, I will always make it very clear whether I am, or have been, an investor or not, and that is usually the point of the story – to talk about lessons learned along the way. Enjoy!

I have had the privilege of living through, participating in, and learning first-hand from, the best and worst of financial markets over the past 40 years

These experiences - plus degrees in law, economic history, finance, and a CFA charter along the way - have enabled me to develop a unique, multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional view of financial markets, booms & busts, crashes & and rebounds - what drives them, and how to navigate them, from macro vision to micro execution as a hands-on practitioner, investor, adviser, and portfolio manager.

You can check out my bio here. Please subscribe to my Newsletter, connect on LinkedIn, or follow me on (Twitter) X

Share market returns over all holding periods - even up to 10, 20, and 30 years - are little more than a coin toss. 'Time in the Market' only works if you get the Timing right, which is mostly luck. Finance textbooks and retirement calculators are based on nice, smooth, theoretical curves that assume constant 'median' returns over long periods. But in the real world, only ONE person in the population gets the median. Half will get MORE (sometimes a lot more), and half will get LESS (sometimes a lot less). There have been decade+ periods of zero or even negative real returns. By the time you realise you're in the unlucky wrong half, it may be too late to adjust your strategy.

US Government has previously defaulted on Treasuries. They are not entirely risk-free!

As the US government teeters toward yet another debt crisis, it is useful to remember that US government defaulting on Treasures is not new. The US failed to pay maturing treasury bills three times in 1979 when Congress didn't legislate to raise the debt ceiling in time. The creditors sued for unpaid interest but were denied by the Courts. These were 'temporary' defaults and were rectified quickly (the principal, not the interest), but they shocked people who had believed the US government would always pay its debts. The default crisis was a final nail in the coffin for Jimmy Carter and Keynesianism, paving the way for the 1980s boom under Reagan with the revival of free market capitalism. Are we at another turning point now? Today, the US deficit and debt load are more than THREE TIMES WORSE (relative to GDP) than in 1979.&

Ashley Owen Jun 12, 2025 2

Virgin IPO – My 3 simple rules for IPOs (or: ‘This stinking mess again?!’)

Rule 1: If Private Equity is selling - Run. In the other direction. Fast. You can be sure the accounts will be riddled with fudged numbers, hidden liabilities, non-existent 'assets', and a pandora's box of under-handed skullduggery. Rule 2: Any ai (automated idiot) bot will tell you that the 'i' in IPO stands for 'initial'. But this is no 'virgin'. It's been around the block a few times. (Misleading PR. Refer to Rule 1). Rule 3: Ignore the glossy PR, high pressure sales tactics, highly-polished accounts, and do your own research into the business and industry. In this case, why would I want to be part-owner of an under-capitalised, foreign-controlled player in a highly parochial market that has never profitably supported more than one dominant player, which is a government-protected, ex-gov department that wrote the book on political schmoozing?

Ashley Owen Jun 05, 2025

May 2025 snapshot: Shares rebound + the latest on inflation, rate cuts, and the TACO trade

Share markets surge back in May after three negative months under Trump. My base case scenario - 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out) is on track. (I didn't come up with that name - I wish I had!) Moody's strips the US government of its Aaa credit rating and shares surged, just like they did after the S&P downgrade in 2011. Labor wins 'landslide' election in Australia (how 34% of the primary vote is a landslide is a mystery to me) - so it's all systems go for even more government spending and 'tax-the-rich!'

Ashley Owen Jun 01, 2025 2

RBA Dep Gov opens keynote speech on trade war impacts on Australia with another of my charts!

On 22 May, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gave a keynote address outlining his observations from his trip to China in the middle of April, days after Trump launched his 'Liberation Day' tariff war on the world, aimed primarily at China. As China is by far our largest export buyer, it is our largest source of export and tax revenues, and has been the largest single source of wealth and prosperity for Australians so far this century, he was keen to assess first-hand the likely flow-on effects of the trade war on the Australian economy, and the RBA's monetary policy thinking. The Dep Gov needed a killer chart to open his address, and I am once again incredibly honoured that he contacted me for permission to use another of my charts!

Ashley Owen May 24, 2025 2

US Shares: ambitious multiples on ambitious accelerating profit outlooks. But powering on regardless

In the March qtr reporting season, S&P500 companies posted good earnings growth of +13% for the past 12 months, after decent +9% growth in the prior 12 months. Consensus forecasts for the next two years have been cut over the past month (tariff impact fears) but they are still forecasting an acceleration of earnings to +15% growth in calendar 2025, plus a further +15% growth in 2026. That's still incredibly ambitious! Current pricing is also a very bullish 28 times trailing earnings, and 25 times the next year's forecast earnings. These are very optimistic multiples on very optimistic accelerating earnings outlooks - a double layer of over-confidence - and highly vulnerable to negative shocks. But investors have shrugged off Trump's tariffs, negative GDP, and Moody's credit downgrade. So far so good!

Ashley Owen May 20, 2025

Additionally featured in - no sponsorship involved.

Commodities matter! More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners (the vast majority are explorers with little more than a map, a compass, and high hopes, but a small number of miners do actually produce something).

The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.”

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

Hello and welcome!

I have had the privilege of living through, participating in, and learning first-hand from, the best and worst of financial markets over the past 40 years

Browse by Category

Register for our mailing list