Saturday, February 22, 2025

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Ashley Owen

Hello and welcome! 

I started this web site in late 2023 to post my random scribblings on investing and investment markets. 

It is not ‘monetised’ in any way, and there is no ‘revenue model’. I do not receive any direct or indirect financial or non-financial benefit from any company or provider of products or services referred to in the content. I use my data, analyses, insights, and ideas to invest my own money. I also use the material in my roles on Investment Committees, consulting to advisory firms, and providing data and analysis to institutions. 

Where I write about specific companies or investments, I will always make it very clear whether I am, or have been, an investor or not, and that is usually the point of the story – to talk about lessons learned along the way. Enjoy!

I have had the privilege of living through, participating in, and learning first-hand from, the best and worst of financial markets over the past 40 years

These experiences - plus degrees in law, economic history, finance, and a CFA charter along the way - have enabled me to develop a unique, multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional view of financial markets, booms & busts, crashes & and rebounds - what drives them, and how to navigate them, from macro vision to micro execution as a hands-on practitioner, investor, adviser, and portfolio manager.

You can check out my bio here.    Please subscribe to my Newsletter, connect on LinkedIn, or follow me on (Twitter) X 

Featured Article

What asset mix will double your money in 10 years? - Let me know your answer!

Ashley Owen Feb 21, 2025 4

This relatively simple 10-year goal appears straightforward, but the outcomes seem little more than a coin toss based on when you happen to start.  Using a simple shares/bonds mix is hard enough, but it becomes even more difficult for more complex real-world investment goals. (For under 30s - 'Bitcoin, bro!') (For under 25s - 'Borrow $100 from your mum, create a meme-coin, pump it & dump it, and make a killing in 10 minutes!) 

Read more
Inflation Cycles & the US share market – same as Australia, with minor differences explained

The impact of US inflation on US shares has been the same as for Australia in my last story.  Returns are consistently LOWER when inflation is RISING, and consistently HIGHER when inflation is FALLING.  This applies to Nominal returns and even more so to Real returns.  The favourable share market returns over the past 20-30 years were driven largely by declining inflation and interest rates (and the policies that drove them), but that phase is over.  What this means for retirement planning. 

Ashley Owen Feb 16, 2025
Inflation Cycles & the Australian share market - the Big picture

Share market returns vary greatly in different inflation conditions. Returns are consistently lower (and below average) when inflation is rising, and consistently higher (and above average) when inflation is falling.  This applies to nominal returns and even more so to 'real' returns after inflation.  If the recent era of declining inflation is over, what comes next? 

Ashley Owen Feb 10, 2025 2
Australia: Highest dividend yields in the world, so why the endless chase for even higher yields?

Australia has, and has had for decades, the highest dividend yielding share market in the world. This delivers enormous benefits to Aussie investors and retirees by eliminating many of the portfolio planning issues and risks faced in other countries. So why the endless yield chase - where so many people fall victim to high-yield traps and scams?

Ashley Owen Feb 04, 2025 4
January 2025 snapshot: Trump’s pro-growth agenda boosts shares + ChatGPT’s effort- which is better?

Here's my monthly wrap-up of financial markets for Australian global investors. What moved markets and why? plus I get ChatGPT to write the same report - let me know which is better! OpenAI founder Sam Altman says ai will replace humans in 868 days time - am I worried? 

Ashley Owen Feb 02, 2025 6
How the ‘Magnificent-7’ stack up – 8 key charts

Just 7 companies make up 19% of the combined value of the entire 15,000 companies listed on world share markets, but they produce just 12% of total world profits, and just 3% of world dividends. They are over-priced on just about every measure, but are they worth it? What justified their astronomical pricing? There is a fairly obvious odd-one-out here - which is it? I have been bullish on US/global shares in portfolios - will this change?  

Ashley Owen Jan 28, 2025 2

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Additionally featured in - no sponsorship involved.

Australia’s bounty: 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2023

Commodities matter! More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners (the vast majority are explorers with little more than a map, a compass, and high hopes, but a small number of miners do actually produce something).

Read more

Australian share market has gone nowhere for 16 years? Is it ‘broken’? Has it lost its mojo?

Ashley Owen Nov 10, 2023 1

The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?

Read more

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

 

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

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  • ashley.owen@owenanalytics.com.au
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About Ashley Owen | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Archive | Disclaimer

The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.