Friday, April 04, 2025

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Ashley Owen

Hello and welcome! 

I started this web site in late 2023 to post my random scribblings on investing and investment markets. All my work is original, fact-based, and non-conflicted.

It is not ‘monetised’ in any way, and there is no ‘revenue model’. The newsletters are free, and contain no ads or marketing material or sponsored material at all.  I do not receive any direct or indirect financial or non-financial benefit from any company or provider of products or services referred to in the content. I use my data, analyses, insights, and ideas to invest my own money. I also use the material in my roles on Investment Committees, consulting to advisory firms, and providing data and analysis to institutions. 

Where I write about specific companies or investments, I will always make it very clear whether I am, or have been, an investor or not, and that is usually the point of the story – to talk about lessons learned along the way. Enjoy!

I have had the privilege of living through, participating in, and learning first-hand from, the best and worst of financial markets over the past 40 years

These experiences - plus degrees in law, economic history, finance, and a CFA charter along the way - have enabled me to develop a unique, multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional view of financial markets, booms & busts, crashes & and rebounds - what drives them, and how to navigate them, from macro vision to micro execution as a hands-on practitioner, investor, adviser, and portfolio manager.

You can check out my bio here.    Please subscribe to my Newsletter, connect on LinkedIn, or follow me on (Twitter) X 

Featured Article

March-2025 - Snapshot: Trump Slump continues - What's moving markets and why?

Ashley Owen Apr 01, 2025

  Here's my monthly wrap-up of global financial markets for Aussie investors -  Share markets are down - but how serious is it? Currency markets - big moves are afoot. Can Trump talk down the Dollar? Where is the 'safe haven' money going - if not into bonds or US dollars? Updates on inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and plenty more.

Read more
Labor -v- Libs: which side has a better record on Deficits & Debts? Here are the facts

'Left' governments have run deficits more often than 'Right' governments, and the Left have also run larger deficits on average than the Right.   But timing is everything! - the Left happened to be in power during the big deficits and debts in the two World Wars, when spending was bi-partisan.   My verdict? - Equal points to Left and Right - but poor scores for both post-GFC. Both sides could have used windfall revenue gains to put our house in order to better prepare for global challenges, rather than increase spending and debt.

Ashley Owen Mar 26, 2025 1
‘Buying the dip?’ – ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’? – the Aussie share market experience

Following my story on US market dips, here is the same analysis for the ASX: The Aussie market has had 36 dips of -10% or more since 1920.  Buying the dips still resulted in more 'Knives' than 'Bargains', and below average returns overall, but the outcomes were significantly better than buying the dips in the US market. 83% of dips on our market were led by falls on the US market. Of the few dips that were due to local factors alone, most were 'Bargains'. Where are we now? Will I be buying the dip here as the US boom deflates?  

Ashley Owen Mar 23, 2025 1
After the mini-correction, should I ‘Buy the dip?’ - Am I ‘Catching Knives’ or ‘Bagging Bargains’?

The US stock market has had 31 'dips' of -10% or more since 1900. We look at what happened in each case if you 'bought the dip'. In most cases, a 10% dip turned out to be just the start of a much larger fall (further -15% fall on average), and for a much longer period (more than a year of further falls on average). Overall, buying the dip resulted in poor returns over subsequent 1, 3, and 5-year periods, but there were several times when 'buying the dip' led to high returns. Where are we now? How does today's market compare?

Ashley Owen Mar 18, 2025 2
Australia’s aging population - are age pensions, benefits, and tax breaks sustainable in future?

  Many retirees live more frugally than necessary, and die with as much Super as they had at retirement. One possible reason may be a rising fear that the current government age pension system is not sustainable and may not be there for life. Despite our aging population, Australia is probably best placed of any country in the world to maintain its government age pension system. Fears of its demise are probably over-done. However, it is probably inevitable that the age pension, and/or the generous tax-breaks and benefits that go with it, will need to be scaled back in future. Future retirees should aim for financial independence, not welfare reliance, to be safe. 

Ashley Owen Mar 15, 2025
I need your Help! - Opal Card survey - Black or Gold? Am I an 'Adult' or a 'Senior'?

Being over 60, I am eligible for a Gold Opal card, which means much cheaper transport fares for the rest of my life. It is a non-means-tested financial benefit purely because of my age - I am no longer an 'Adult'. I make the case for both - What should I do?

Ashley Owen Mar 11, 2025 19

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Additionally featured in - no sponsorship involved.

Australia’s bounty: 400 years of exports. Is it just ‘luck’? Or masterful ability to adapt and pivot

Ashley Owen Nov 15, 2023

Commodities matter! More than half of the 2,200+ companies listed on the ASX are miners (the vast majority are explorers with little more than a map, a compass, and high hopes, but a small number of miners do actually produce something).

Read more

Australian share market has gone nowhere for 16 years? Is it ‘broken’? Has it lost its mojo?

Ashley Owen Nov 10, 2023 1

The All Ordinaries index hit a peaked of 6,853 on 1 November 2007, but it is barely above that 16 years later. Why? Is the local share market in terminal decline? Has it lost its mojo? Is it ever going to get back to growth? Is it time to give up on the local share market and look elsewhere?

Read more

“Ashley is one of the best writers and thinkers on financial markets in Australia. His unique analysis and research is always fact-based and insightful, not the usual uninformed market noise and waffle that infects the mainstream financial media.”

Graham Hand - Editorial Director of Morningstar Australia, including Founder/Managing Editor of FirstLinks, Australia’s leading newsletter and publishing service on wealth management, superannuation, and personal finance.

 

‘For many years, Ashley has been my go-to source of information and analysis on what’s going on in financial markets and why.’

“Ashley has an encyclopaedic knowledge of the markets – I call him Mr Google!”

Noel Whittaker, AM – Australia’s best-known personal finance writer, columnist, and media commentator for the past three decades. He has written more than 20 books on personal finance, his columns appear in almost every major Australian newspaper, and he appears regularly on radio and TV as an expert on finance and investing. Noel Whittaker AM

“Over the past 20 years, Ashley has been an invaluable assistance to me, as a reliable source of unbelievably strong and interesting data, and many good investment ideas.”

"The depth and quality of Ashley’s research and analysis of investment markets is the best in the business.”

Dr Don Stammer - Australia’s most respected economic writer, commentator, and speaker for the past 40 years, with a distinguished career including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Australia for 21 years, chair of nine ASX companies, plus numerous non-listed and not-for-profit boards. Read more

“What sets Ashley Owen’s analysis apart from investment banks and the financial press is his deep fact-based understanding of long-term financial data, rather than getting caught up on the daily noise over issues that may generate trades or sell newspapers today, but will be irrelevant and misleading two years from now.” 

Hugh Dive, CFA. Chief Investment Officer, Atlas Funds Management, and frequent expert commentator quoted in the AFR.

“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

Chris Cuffe, AO – One of Australia’s best known and most experienced investment managers – former CEO of industry giants Colonial First State, then Challenger Financial; founder and Chair of Australian Philanthropic Services, and Third Link Growth Fund; current/former chair, director and/or investment committee member of numerous funds including UniSuper, Argo Investments, Hearts and Minds Investments, Paul Ramsay Foundation, and many others. Read more.

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  • ashley.owen@owenanalytics.com.au
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About Ashley Owen | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Archive | Disclaimer

The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.