Thursday, August 28, 2025

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Aug 2025

1-6 out of 6 results.

World share market pricing- Part 5: Growth in Profits & Dividends – Why USA leads & Australia lags

Australian shares Asset allocation, portfolio constructionInternational shares

Today’s article looks at running rates for growth in earnings and dividends in each market as a context for assessing over-pricing on traditional metrics like P/Es, div yields, and price/book ratios.   The stand-outs are Sweden (Spotify), Netherlands (ASML), Japan (macro & micro reforms), and the US (strong earnings & dividend growth engine). The Aussie share market has done poorly on earnings and dividend growth, not just relative to other countries, but in absolute terms.  Why? Two words – Banks. Miners. Both sectors peaked a decade ago. Earnings and dividends per share have not even kept pace with inflation. Share prices have risen well head of earnings and dividends. The US market may appear very expensive on some metrics, but this is mostly underpinned by much stronger earnings & dividends.

Aug 28, 2025

World share market pricing- Part 4: Profit Margins & Returns on Equity– US highest, but sustainable?

International sharesAustralian shares Asset allocation, portfolio construction

This instalment delves deeper into pricing and valuations for the 20 largest share markets in the world. It goes behind initial pricing metrics like p/e ratios, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios, to look at underlying corporate profitability. The US market appears on the surface to be more expensive than other countries (higher p/e, lower div. yields, higher price/book, etc), but US companies are the most profitable in the world, which justifies higher pricing. However, US company profitability is currently running at very high – and probably unsustainable - levels, similar to the 1990s ‘dot-com’ boom which collapsed in the ‘tech-wreck’ crash & US/global recession. Company profitability has been much lower in Australia than in the US for many decades (aside from one brief period). Why?

Aug 26, 2025 2

World share market pricing- Part 3: Forward P/E ratios & earnings growth assumptions

Asset allocation, portfolio constructionInternational sharesAustralian shares

Not only do global share markets appear expensive relative to reported profits, dividends, and book values (Parts 1&2), the ‘forward’ price/earnings ratios are even higher, as they assume outlandishly high profit growth for the coming year. This is a double-layer of over-pricing – ambitious pricing of current profits, plus ambitious assumptions of future profit growth. It is not just the US – in fact, US profit outlooks are probably more achievable than most other countries, including Australia, where pricing is off with the pixies! I also take a look at the positive and negative forces driving global profits. The media always focus on the negatives, but actually there are quite a few positives. What are the risks and were are the cracks likely to appear?

Aug 20, 2025

World share market pricing- Part 2: P/E ratios, Dividend Yields, Price/Book – all appear very high!

Most share markets – including US and Australia in particular - appear to be very expensive on three widely-used pricing metrics – price/earnings ratios, dividend yields, and price-to-book value ratios. Each indicates high pricing relative to historical averages, and also relative to underlying fundamentals like profitability and sustainable growth rates. The US in particular stands out as being expensive on these measures, even after allowing for its stronger fundamentals relative to other markets. Given the Australian market’s much weaker underlying fundamentals, Australia is probably even more over-priced than the US at current levels. These simple pricing indicators are not a bad starting point, but they gloss over a host of differences in each market, like returns on equity, dividend pay-out ratios, earnings grow

Aug 17, 2025

Share Market Pricing per Country – how does your country rate?

Investment bubbles/busts, cyclesInternational sharesAustralian shares Asset allocation, portfolio construction

Here’s an update on share market pricing around the world, based on the two most widely used measures -  price/earnings ratios and dividend yields. USA and India are way out in 'expensive' territory. Are these justified? Australia appears less expensive – but still over-priced given its market structure and sector mix. At the 'cheap' end are Italy, Brazil, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia – does ‘cheap’ mean ‘good value’? Is global share market over-pricing a problem? Is a crash imminent? Why have I remained reasonably bullish on global/US shares despite increasingly expensive pricing?

Aug 11, 2025 2

July 2025 snapshot: Share markets up for 4th month, inflation easing, more rate cuts soon

Financial MarketsInflationInterest ratesCommoditiesInternational sharesAustralian shares Bonds

Another month of good gains on global share markets across almost all industry sectors and countries, despite Trump’s frenzy of deals, adjustments, backflips, side-deals. Inflation continues to ease, but central banks remain cautious and reluctant to cut rates further for now. But bond yields rose at the long end, reflecting fears of higher inflation ahead. Global growth, spending, and employment all remain reasonably strong – defying wide-spread predictions of slowdowns & recessions. On commodities markets, oil and gold kept rising on inflation and Middle East troubles. Iron ore was finally boosted by much-awaited Chinese stimulus.

Aug 01, 2025 2

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“Ashley’s unique fact-based analyses and insights into Australian and global markets are always worth reading. He has an incredibly deep and comprehensive store of financial markets data.”

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The information contained in this document relates to historical, factual events and returns, and contains general commentary and observations about financial markets, asset classes, and asset allocation. This document, or any part thereof, does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice, or financial advice, or financial product advice, in any jurisdiction in which it is published, re-published or read. It does not recommend, encourage, or influence readers to buy, hold, sell, or deal in any financial product or security. Where securities of financial products are mentioned, it is purely for the purposes of illustration, context, and/or education, and not intended to influence anyone to buy, hold, sell, or deal in it. The information is current when written. All reasonable measures are taken to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, but the author accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. This document is only provided to, and intended for, holders of Australian Financial Services Licences. It should not be used or relied upon by any person or entity other than a duly licenced AFSL holder, or authorised representative thereof. The author receives no benefit, financial or otherwise, from any product provider, or product issuer, or any other firm involved directly or indirectly in the provision or services in or to financial markets or industries, whether mentioned in the report or not. Any opinions expressed by the author are his alone, and are intended for the purposes of education.