Sunday, July 27, 2025
US Shares: 'double-whammy' of over-pricing, but how serious is it?
The US share market is soaring, but bullish profit forecasts, plus bullish multiples give us a 'double-whammy' of over-pricing. Current p/e ratios - expensive but extreme yet? Profit outlooks - also bullish, but how stretched are they? Why short and long term interest rates are both relatively low given the inflation task Why pricing is different from timing or triggers
Chinese Steel Production - the Sydney Harbour Bridge Index
China builds another 'Sydney Harbour Bridge' worth of steel every 10 minutes! That's 26,000 Harbour Bridges per year - with our rocks. China's steel production has been single biggest driver of Australia's prosperity this century. But with China's construction market collapsing and economy stagnating, how will that affect us? ·
Company insolvencies up 100%! - 3 reasons not to panic
Yes, company failures are up 100% - but here are three reasons not to panic Insolvency rates tell us about the Business Cycle - Where are we now? Where to next? Which industries are under most pressure? Why the next recession will see fewer company failures than past recessions Why I'm bullish on Aussie companies as a whole, recession or not
Political Risk case study: Bougainville - richest gold mine in the world - but you can't touch it
This company is sitting on the richest copper-gold mine in the world, but it has been locked up for 35 years and can't touch it. Political risk crippled what was once a highly profitable 'blue chip' stock. All investing involves political risk, but political risks can be the most volatile, hardest to quantify, and most wealth-destroying. Or perhaps wealth creating - in the right circumstances and at the right price!
Gold: Curious case of the '31-year itch'?
Gold is hitting new highs lately, so everyone is looking to jump in. It's time to step back for a moment and look at the big picture: Gold goes through regular 31-year cycles - so where are we now in the cycle? Why gold is a lousy inflation hedge most of the time. Is it cheap or expensive? When it is 'good value'?
Case Study 1969-70 Nickel boom-bust
In 2021 and 2022, when the prices of nickel and nickel explorers/miners were soaring, my inbox was flooded with emails asking which nickel stock(s) to jump into. Since all mining booms follow a familiar pattern, and end the same way for the same reasons, I responded by referring to my story about the mother of all nickel boom-busts – Poseidon, involving the very same nickel mines. How’s a one-year gain of 46,000% sound?
Australia's shrinking growth - mostly just population growth
Australia’s economic growth has been increasingly reliant on population rather than real reforms to improve productivity and living standards. It has been deteriorating for several decades through governments of all types. Here is the Big Picture you will not find anywhere else.
Feb 2024 Snapshot - early rate cut hopes dashed but shares surge on confidence from US profits
He's my quick wrap-up of key developments in investment markets in Feb 2024.
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